Best MLB Player Props for June 7: Rockies Remain Helpless Against Good Pitching
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, June 7, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx
Lance Lynn (White Sox)
Lance Lynn starts for the White Sox today.
Lynn's 6.55 ERA obviously suggests that he's performing terribly this season.
While I don't wish to deny this conclusion, it is worth noting that evaluating Lynn is a bit more complicated than it seems because he does have good starts occasionally.
For betting purposes, the key is to understand when he is likely to pitch well versus when he is likely to struggle.
Lynn has had four starts, out of twelve, in which he allowed three runs or fewer.
In those starts -- against the Guardians, Royals, Tigers, and Twins -- he faced a team that ranks in the bottom half in slugging against his pitches from righties.
He has indeed also struggled against teams that, in this way, match up poorly against him.
But his results show that, if he is to perform well at all, it must come against a team that, in terms of matchup, is disadvantaged.
Those lineups that fared poorly against Lynn are also generally some of the weaker lineups out there.
The Yankees
While low-talent teams like the Royals have crushed Lynn, New York's outlook is extra promising tonight because its lineup matches up well against Lynn.
The Yankees rank seventh in slugging against his pitches from righties.
While the Yankees miss Aaron Judge, there are several reasons why his absence should not undermine your confidence in the Yankees.
One reason is the rally angle: other players step up when an important teammate goes down.
Two, Giancarlo Stanton is back.
Stanton, who had missed time, matches up very well against Lynn.
Three, Lynn has a terrible track record in Yankee Stadium, which exists independently of Judge.
In his career, Lynn is 0-3 with a 5.66 ERA in eight starts in the Yankees' venue.
Best Bet: Lance Lynn over 2.5 total earned runs allowed at +102 with Caesars
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Wednesday, June 7, 2023 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Logan Webb (Giants)
Logan Webb starts for San Francisco tonight.
Webb, as evident in his 2.85 ERA, continues to be a top-caliber pitcher.
Compared to last year, he is striking out more batters.
When he doesn't achieve a strikeout, it is highly unlikely that he will yield a walk.
Moreover, he does a great job of avoiding hard contact.
Heat maps show that he is excellent at avoiding the middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
He uses the generally very strong movement of his pitches to toy with the batter's perception of whether they will land for a strike or a ball.
Hence, it is very difficult to lay off his stuff, and this is why he ranks in the 88th percentile in chase rate.
In terms of pitches, he likes to throw his sinker most often, which is a serviceable pitch for him.
But when he needs to buckle down and get outs, he can also rely extensively on both his changeup, which yields a .205 BA, and his slider, which yields a .182 BA.
He does a great job of keeping both pitches down in the zone, which tends to induce ground balls.
Rockies
Colorado's lineup is worth fading because it has proven helpless against strong pitching.
The Rockies faced Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly for Arizona and Josaih Gray for Washington at home.
They mustered five hits and zero runs against Gallen, six hits and one run against Kelly, and eight hits and one run against Gray.
The upshot of this is that the Rockies, even in hitters-friendly Coors Field, are helpless against pitchers that rank top 10 in the NL in ERA allowed.
Logan Webb is such a pitcher.
He also doesn't mind pitching at Coors, where he yields a .226 BA and .307 slugging rate.
Best Bet: Logan Webb under 2.5 total earned runs allowed at +104 with Caesars
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, June 7, 2023 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Jameson Taillon (Cubs)
Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs tonight.
Taillon shows strong form based on his last two starts.
Skeptics may say that those starts came against two teams, the Reds and Padres, that match up poorly against him.
Whereas the Reds rank 23rd against his favorite pitches from righties, the Padres rank 27th.
But there are two things worth noting: one, he looked really good.
His command was on-point, as evident in his strike out-to-walk ratio.
Moreover, he did an incredible job of avoiding hard contact.
The second thing worth noting is that he has performed very well against teams that match up well against him.
For example, in April he held the Dodgers to zero runs in five innings in Dodger Stadium.
So, it's not really helpful to look at matchup.
What should we look at then?
Form and Pitching Arsenal
Taillon's pitching arsenal is that of a good pitcher.
His fastball has a uniquely high amount of spin, and he likes to place this pitch high in the strike zone where its spin gives it an appearance of rising action that induces batters to swing underneath.
Heat maps show that he does a great job of keeping his other pitches away from the middle of the strike zone.
Overall, his pitches have some good movement that he uses to get batters to chase his pitches outside the zone -- he ranks 75th in chase rate.
With seven different pitches at his disposal, he remains unpredictable.
Because he is pitching well, we should expect him to be effective because of his good command, his pitch variety, his pitch movement, and his good location.
Best Bet: Jameson Taillon under 2.5 total earned runs allowed at -135 with Caesars
- Lance Lynn over 2.5 total earned runs allowed (+102) at Caesars
- Logan Webb under 2.5 total earned runs allowed (+104) at Caesars
- Jameson Taillon under 2.5 total earned runs allowed (-135) with Caesars
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, June 7, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx
Lance Lynn (White Sox)
Lance Lynn starts for the White Sox today.
Lynn's 6.55 ERA obviously suggests that he's performing terribly this season.
While I don't wish to deny this conclusion, it is worth noting that evaluating Lynn is a bit more complicated than it seems because he does have good starts occasionally.
For betting purposes, the key is to understand when he is likely to pitch well versus when he is likely to struggle.
Lynn has had four starts, out of twelve, in which he allowed three runs or fewer.
In those starts -- against the Guardians, Royals, Tigers, and Twins -- he faced a team that ranks in the bottom half in slugging against his pitches from righties.
He has indeed also struggled against teams that, in this way, match up poorly against him.
But his results show that, if he is to perform well at all, it must come against a team that, in terms of matchup, is disadvantaged.
Those lineups that fared poorly against Lynn are also generally some of the weaker lineups out there.
The Yankees
While low-talent teams like the Royals have crushed Lynn, New York's outlook is extra promising tonight because its lineup matches up well against Lynn.
The Yankees rank seventh in slugging against his pitches from righties.
While the Yankees miss Aaron Judge, there are several reasons why his absence should not undermine your confidence in the Yankees.
One reason is the rally angle: other players step up when an important teammate goes down.
Two, Giancarlo Stanton is back.
Stanton, who had missed time, matches up very well against Lynn.
Three, Lynn has a terrible track record in Yankee Stadium, which exists independently of Judge.
In his career, Lynn is 0-3 with a 5.66 ERA in eight starts in the Yankees' venue.
Best Bet: Lance Lynn over 2.5 total earned runs allowed at +102 with Caesars
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Wednesday, June 7, 2023 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Logan Webb (Giants)
Logan Webb starts for San Francisco tonight.
Webb, as evident in his 2.85 ERA, continues to be a top-caliber pitcher.
Compared to last year, he is striking out more batters.
When he doesn't achieve a strikeout, it is highly unlikely that he will yield a walk.
Moreover, he does a great job of avoiding hard contact.
Heat maps show that he is excellent at avoiding the middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
He uses the generally very strong movement of his pitches to toy with the batter's perception of whether they will land for a strike or a ball.
Hence, it is very difficult to lay off his stuff, and this is why he ranks in the 88th percentile in chase rate.
In terms of pitches, he likes to throw his sinker most often, which is a serviceable pitch for him.
But when he needs to buckle down and get outs, he can also rely extensively on both his changeup, which yields a .205 BA, and his slider, which yields a .182 BA.
He does a great job of keeping both pitches down in the zone, which tends to induce ground balls.
Rockies
Colorado's lineup is worth fading because it has proven helpless against strong pitching.
The Rockies faced Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly for Arizona and Josaih Gray for Washington at home.
They mustered five hits and zero runs against Gallen, six hits and one run against Kelly, and eight hits and one run against Gray.
The upshot of this is that the Rockies, even in hitters-friendly Coors Field, are helpless against pitchers that rank top 10 in the NL in ERA allowed.
Logan Webb is such a pitcher.
He also doesn't mind pitching at Coors, where he yields a .226 BA and .307 slugging rate.
Best Bet: Logan Webb under 2.5 total earned runs allowed at +104 with Caesars
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, June 7, 2023 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Jameson Taillon (Cubs)
Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs tonight.
Taillon shows strong form based on his last two starts.
Skeptics may say that those starts came against two teams, the Reds and Padres, that match up poorly against him.
Whereas the Reds rank 23rd against his favorite pitches from righties, the Padres rank 27th.
But there are two things worth noting: one, he looked really good.
His command was on-point, as evident in his strike out-to-walk ratio.
Moreover, he did an incredible job of avoiding hard contact.
The second thing worth noting is that he has performed very well against teams that match up well against him.
For example, in April he held the Dodgers to zero runs in five innings in Dodger Stadium.
So, it's not really helpful to look at matchup.
What should we look at then?
Form and Pitching Arsenal
Taillon's pitching arsenal is that of a good pitcher.
His fastball has a uniquely high amount of spin, and he likes to place this pitch high in the strike zone where its spin gives it an appearance of rising action that induces batters to swing underneath.
Heat maps show that he does a great job of keeping his other pitches away from the middle of the strike zone.
Overall, his pitches have some good movement that he uses to get batters to chase his pitches outside the zone -- he ranks 75th in chase rate.
With seven different pitches at his disposal, he remains unpredictable.
Because he is pitching well, we should expect him to be effective because of his good command, his pitch variety, his pitch movement, and his good location.
Best Bet: Jameson Taillon under 2.5 total earned runs allowed at -135 with Caesars
