3 Player Props May 10: Big-Time Strikeout Pitchers Are Starting Today
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Cincinnati starts Hunter Greene, well-known for his filthy stuff that is enabling him to strike out 12.56 batters per nine innings.
He features two pitches, a fastball and a slider.
His fastball averages 98.9 mph, positioning its velocity in the 99th percentile.
Its spin is good, too, as it ranks in the 74th percentile in spin.
Heat maps show that he likes to locate this pitch high in the strike zone where it is hard for batters to keep up with its velocity.
The high location of his fastball also generates the appearance of rising action, inducing batters to swing underneath it.
But his best whiff pitch is actually his slider, which produces a 47.7 percent whiff rate.
He effectively plays his slider well off his fastball by using it to create a change of pace -- this pitch averages about 10 mph less than his fastball -- and by using it to change the batter's eye level -- he likes to bury this pitch low or beneath the strike zone.
Greene's Strikeout Total
Greene has exceeded 6.5 strikeouts in three of his four starts where he lasted at least five innings.
In his last two starts, he achieved ten and seven strikeouts, respectively, despite failing to complete six innings.
So, we should consider how long he'll last today, because this will help determine how many batters he gets a chance to strike out.
The fact that he matches up well against the Mets creates promise for him.
They rank 21stin slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Hunter Greene over 6.5 strikeouts at +130 with Bovada
San Diego Padres vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Pablo Lopez starts for the Twins today.
Lopez's 3.77 ERA, though not bad, is misleading.
He has suffered from yielding a .317 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that is unfortunately high given the high rate at which he induces soft contact.
His 2.99 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) indicates how strongly he is actually performing on an individual level.
Lopez performs so well in part because of his strong command.
He walks few batters, which means that he does a good job of not wasting pitches or at-bats.
His strong command helps him last more innings, giving him more opportunities to strike out batters.
In three different starts -- he has seven starts in total this season -- he has completed seven innings.
Moreover, he completed six innings in two other starts.
In addition to giving himself more opportunities to accrue strikeouts, he achieves strikeouts at an efficient rate -- he strikes out 11.30 batters per nine innings.
The sweeper is his best strikeout pitch.
He plays it really well off his other, higher-velocity pitches by using it to create a nice change of pace.
Additionally, he locates it well, placing it often along the borders of the strike zone.
Like his change-up, which creates a slightly less radical change of pace relative to his 95 mph fastball, he'll use it to change the batter's eye level by lowering its placement after elevating a fastball.
Lopez's Strikeouts
Lopez's strikeout total is simply too low: he has exceeded 6.5 strikeouts in every game but one.
He lasted four innings in the one exception and still almost got seven strikeouts.
Best Bet: Pablo Lopez over 6.5 strikeouts at +100 with Bovada
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Jordan Montgomery starts for the Cardinals today.
Montgomery has been enjoying a recent run of success.
The lefty relies primarily on four pitches: his sinker, curveball, change-up, and fastball.
These four pitches make up just over 98 percent of his arsenal.
In his last three games, he lasted six innings and twice exceeded what his strikeout over/under is for today by the smallest or margins.
This is, therefore, not a pitcher whose strikeout abilities are being overestimated by oddsmakers.
The over/under on his strikeouts is 5.5, yet his best games have often had him striking out six batters.
Matchup Considerations
In order for him to have a chance of reaching six strikeouts today, we should want him to have one of his best starts of the season.
But, in his recent string of successful starts, he has benefitted from playing against teams that match up poorly against him -- his last three opponents all rank 20thor last against his pitches from lefties.
Conversely, he struggled against Toronto and Arizona teams that match up well against him.
Far from approaching his current strikeout total in either of those starts, he managed a combined total of five strikeouts against both teams.
What helped hinder his strikeout total in those games was his failure to make it past the fifth inning.
Toronto scored three runs in five innings against him while Arizona accumulated seven runs in four innings.
The Cubs are primed to thrive today as they rank fourth in slugging .492 against Montgomery's pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Jordan Montgomery under 5.5 strikeouts at -115 with Bovada
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
- Hunter Greene features a filthy fastball-slider combo
- Greene regularly exceeds six strikeouts when he lasts at least five innings
- Met batters match up poorly against him
Who Starts for Cincinnati?
Cincinnati starts Hunter Greene, well-known for his filthy stuff that is enabling him to strike out 12.56 batters per nine innings.
He features two pitches, a fastball and a slider.
His fastball averages 98.9 mph, positioning its velocity in the 99th percentile.
Its spin is good, too, as it ranks in the 74th percentile in spin.
Heat maps show that he likes to locate this pitch high in the strike zone where it is hard for batters to keep up with its velocity.
The high location of his fastball also generates the appearance of rising action, inducing batters to swing underneath it.
But his best whiff pitch is actually his slider, which produces a 47.7 percent whiff rate.
He effectively plays his slider well off his fastball by using it to create a change of pace -- this pitch averages about 10 mph less than his fastball -- and by using it to change the batter's eye level -- he likes to bury this pitch low or beneath the strike zone.
Greene's Strikeout Total
Greene has exceeded 6.5 strikeouts in three of his four starts where he lasted at least five innings.
In his last two starts, he achieved ten and seven strikeouts, respectively, despite failing to complete six innings.
So, we should consider how long he'll last today, because this will help determine how many batters he gets a chance to strike out.
The fact that he matches up well against the Mets creates promise for him.
They rank 21stin slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Hunter Greene over 6.5 strikeouts at +130 with Bovada
- Pablo Lopez is an excellent, underrated pitcher, as evident in his underlying stats
- His strong pitch command helps him last longer in outings
- He regularly strikes out more than six batters per game
San Diego Padres vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Target Field in Minneapolis
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Pablo Lopez starts for the Twins today.
Lopez's 3.77 ERA, though not bad, is misleading.
He has suffered from yielding a .317 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that is unfortunately high given the high rate at which he induces soft contact.
His 2.99 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) indicates how strongly he is actually performing on an individual level.
Lopez performs so well in part because of his strong command.
He walks few batters, which means that he does a good job of not wasting pitches or at-bats.
His strong command helps him last more innings, giving him more opportunities to strike out batters.
In three different starts -- he has seven starts in total this season -- he has completed seven innings.
Moreover, he completed six innings in two other starts.
In addition to giving himself more opportunities to accrue strikeouts, he achieves strikeouts at an efficient rate -- he strikes out 11.30 batters per nine innings.
The sweeper is his best strikeout pitch.
He plays it really well off his other, higher-velocity pitches by using it to create a nice change of pace.
Additionally, he locates it well, placing it often along the borders of the strike zone.
Like his change-up, which creates a slightly less radical change of pace relative to his 95 mph fastball, he'll use it to change the batter's eye level by lowering its placement after elevating a fastball.
Lopez's Strikeouts
Lopez's strikeout total is simply too low: he has exceeded 6.5 strikeouts in every game but one.
He lasted four innings in the one exception and still almost got seven strikeouts.
Best Bet: Pablo Lopez over 6.5 strikeouts at +100 with Bovada
- Jordan Montgomery's success is heavily match-up-dependent
- He has benefitted from facing teams that he matches up well against while lineups that match up well against him have thrived
- The Cubs match up uniquely well against him, and are thus sure to hit him hard while striking out few times
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Wednesday, May 10, 2023 at 7:40 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Jordan Montgomery starts for the Cardinals today.
Montgomery has been enjoying a recent run of success.
The lefty relies primarily on four pitches: his sinker, curveball, change-up, and fastball.
These four pitches make up just over 98 percent of his arsenal.
In his last three games, he lasted six innings and twice exceeded what his strikeout over/under is for today by the smallest or margins.
This is, therefore, not a pitcher whose strikeout abilities are being overestimated by oddsmakers.
The over/under on his strikeouts is 5.5, yet his best games have often had him striking out six batters.
Matchup Considerations
In order for him to have a chance of reaching six strikeouts today, we should want him to have one of his best starts of the season.
But, in his recent string of successful starts, he has benefitted from playing against teams that match up poorly against him -- his last three opponents all rank 20thor last against his pitches from lefties.
Conversely, he struggled against Toronto and Arizona teams that match up well against him.
Far from approaching his current strikeout total in either of those starts, he managed a combined total of five strikeouts against both teams.
What helped hinder his strikeout total in those games was his failure to make it past the fifth inning.
Toronto scored three runs in five innings against him while Arizona accumulated seven runs in four innings.
The Cubs are primed to thrive today as they rank fourth in slugging .492 against Montgomery's pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Jordan Montgomery under 5.5 strikeouts at -115 with Bovada
