Wednesday Picks

[divol]

Huge card tonight and I will take many picks, but most medium - low units stakes only (actually all will be like that, unless I see some nice value in some bet).
Orlando, Toronto, Clips and Lakers - all with the line (Lakers ML) with medium units (5 to 7).
Searching for one or two Totals also.
Write ups will follow later tonight, will like to read your thoughts on the picks.

Best of luck everybody!

 

[EddieShore]

Philadelphia @ Toronto

I am expecting a score in the same range of their first meeting 95-84 at Philadelphia.
Lean: Under 183.5


Atlanta @ Boston

Josh Smith is out. It hasn't showned yesterday in Chicago but the Celtics are not the Bulls. They have one of the best defensive in the league.
Lean: Under 183.5


Indiana @ New Jersey

One of the two unders for Indiana this year occured against New Jersey at home. I expect a lot more from the Nets this time, around 100 and the same 105 range from the Pacers.
Lean: Over 200.5


Lakers @ New Orleans

This is an Over just looking at the line being under 200. I expect at least 205 in this match up.
Lean: Over 195


New York @ Memphis

Memphis will try to slow down the pace I believe. They also can run with the Knicks. This one I will probably pass.
Lean: Under 204.5


Orlando @ Oklahoma City

Oklahoma City, the worst team of the league, is showing unders at home since the beginning of the season. I don't see why it would not be an under again tonight.
Lean: Under 187.5


Portland @ Miami

I wonder how Chicago is feeling when comparing LaMarcus Aldridge to Tyrus Thomas? They've chosen Thomas instead of Aldridge... Oden is supposed to be back?
Lean: Over 189


San antonio @ Milwaukee

Parker, Ginobili and Redd out. Scott Skiles a defense first coach just as Popovich.
Lean: Under 181


Utah @ Washington

Washington is truly missing Arenas. I am surprised to see the Jazz not playing more defensively with Jerry Sloan.
Lean: Over 195.5


Houston @ Phoenix

Steve Nash was complaining they were not running enough lately. Houston can certainly run with coach Alderman.
Lean: Over 199.5


Sacramento @ Clippers

This one I will pass. Clippers tend to have lower totals and Sacramento just the opposite.
Lean: Under 195.5


For what it is worth. I am nowhere near the class of divol as a capper.

 

[EddieShore]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/steve_aschburner/11/11/shaq/index.html

This is the article I've read where Nash was complaining about not running anymore...

 

[6figure]

gl divol..

 

[divol]

Eddie, about the Boston's game, we had 6 games between the teams last year in Boston and in 4 out of 6, the score was higher than tonight.
Over in NO sure looks nice overall. The same for the Under in Milwaukee and Over in Washington. If I had to pick, I would take a bet from this three options...

 

[divol]

Orlando -6.5 points - 7 units stake

Tonight is a huge card and I have real problem trying to find gems. Too many bets look like decent options, but not a single one looks really great.
Orlando have been playing like crap from the beginning of the season, so why the hell do I back the Magic here? First of all, they are playing the worst team in the league, not a question even, the Thunders. I already wrote my opinion about the Thunders just two days ago and I won’t repeat myself, but let’s just say that this opinion haven’t improved.
I don’t see Petro dealing with Howard (if Wilcox is out, it would be even harder) and Pietrus will be a nightmare for Durant. Lewis and Turkoglu against Green and Collison and I doubt that Watson got the edge on Nelson. Magic played poorly, but did win and easily against the weak teams in the league, trashing both Kings and Washington and losing only to the surging Grizzlies.
One last fact that brought me to a conclusion that this maybe the best bet of the day is the fact that Thunders 5 – 2 ATS and won all three last ATS. Bookies overreacted to this fact and instead of giving 8.5 spread made 6.5 – 7 points only and that means that even a tight game that will be decided in the last minute, with 2 – 4 free throws, can swing the bet our way.
I believe that Orlando needs a strong win to bounce back and I can’t think of a better opponent to do that against. Magic should win this one by 12 – 15 points.

 

[divol]

Raptors -5.5 - 6 units stake

Last night I saved your money, but didn’t save my own betting the Sixers. I’m sorry, but what a bunch of morons. Is there a negative basketball IQ? If so, Sixers are somewhere in that zone with their coach as well. First of all, each screen or pick and roll simply shocks this team. I have the feeling sometimes, they got a sprint team, dressed them as basketball players and this is the first time they saw that wired orange thing named basketball ball. I stopped counting after 10 the number of fast breaks in which there were two Sixers on three – four <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State><st1lace>Utah</st1lace></st1:State>’s players and they still decided that this is a smart move not to stop the ball and of course missed or turnover the ball. The number of times that one simple screen or a pass sliced Sixer’s defense to half and left Jazz player for easy dunk was twice as much. Their coach actually set the example and decided that if he is in a stupid team, he should lead by example and when Sixers were leading by a point in first quarter, pulled both Miller and Brand of the floor. I wish (and so Sixers fans I bet) he would have looked at the scoreboard. Brand and Miller scored all Sixers points up to that point! Yeah, pulling your only scorers of the court when you up by a point is always a genius move!
The sad thing is that I like this team. They got a passion for the game, great crowd that loves basketball, young team and great tradition. Too bad they don’t have anything else.
Raptors come to this game after losing to Boston and losing three out of the last four and will be looking not to drop to a negative home record (1- 1 currently). The team didn’t play that great against Bobcats and the Celtics, but it was enough to make a great comeback and win against the Bobcats, but than suffered the same faith against the Celtics, squandering a 16 points lead deep in the second half, but at least taking the line.
Both teams met in Philly for season opener and Raptors won easily 95 – 84. Since than, I didn’t see any signs that convinced me that at <st1:City><st1lace>Toronto</st1lace></st1:City>, Raptors can win at least by the same margin.

 

[divol]

Eddie, great article by the way! really enjoyed reading it.

 

[EddieShore]

You're welcome.

Just tailed your Toronto and Orlando picks.

 

[divol]

Clippers -6.5 - 5 units stake

Each time I bet against the Kings, I triple check my bet. I still remember last year, when without all their stars, Kings made a great ATS run, losing all games (besides one), but taking all the lines and since I went against them ATS, I lost 3 – 4 bets in a row and didn’t like it one bit (imagine that).
Now I see at the current Kings and immediately remember last year. Now, without Martin, they are up to Udrih, Salmons, Miller and <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Moore</st1lace></st1:City> to win games and the only fight such team can give, is a fight to the Thunders for the last place in the league.
Clips have a rare chance to get B2B win and lets be honest, how many times they will get such a chance this season, even if they will remain healthy (yeah right, that will happen).
I was actually going to give up on this match and not tipping, since I believe that -7.5 line is a bit too high, but there are -6.5 lines still at many bookies and I like them much more.
But after all, I see many problems for the Kings tonight. Udrih can’t stop <st1:City><st1lace>Davis</st1lace></st1:City>. Udrih can’t play the level of defense to even try to defend <st1:City><st1lace>Davis</st1lace></st1:City>. He can only escort him to the basket, nothing else. I also really like the Kaman/ Camby matchup on Miller and Moore. Moore is a great hustle player, but Camby simply better and Kaman isn’t as soft on his shots as Miller and doesn’t have his passing skills, but under the rims, I still would take him over Miller any day (of this season, not Miller of 5 years ago). Thompson in good season, but as soon as he is a starter, Kings left without a bench whatsoever.
I really believe that Clippers and Davis should do great job closing quarters and especially the second quarter, when the starters of the Kings will be too tired and watching for foul trouble. Clips should win this one by 9 – 12 points, just on the verge of trashing the Kings.

 

[divol]

Lakers +1.5 - 4 units stake

My last bet of tonight is Lakers and since it is more of a TV bet (or an internet link bet to be more accurate) I will take it with the line and low units.
If there are teams that can beat Lakers on Lakers good day, Hornets are one of those teams. Still, right now, Lakers are the best team in the league and by far. If there won’t be any big injury, Lakers should finish with the best record in the league and they are the only team that can break <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Dallas</st1lace></st1:City>’s record in 2000 – 2010 period and win 70 or maybe even go for Bulls and Jazz records of 72 wins. Lakers are not only with the best roster, but also the best player and they (and he) are both hungry and angry after losing to themselves the Championship last year.
Hornets are the second best team in the West, with only <st1:City><st1lace>Houston</st1lace></st1:City> threatening their status. Still, this season so far, Hornets were all but impressive. Hornets hold only 4 – 2 record, without playing any really strong team and both losses came at home to Hawks and on a road to Bobcats. On paper they signed Posey, a great addition and contra to Peja, with great defensive abilities, but can hit the vital three as well. He was added mainly because every big team needs a stopper against the Bryants, T-Macs and LeBrones of the league.
Still, despite this addition, Hornets actually play very mediocre defense, much worse than the year before. 87 points is the lowest score they allowed to the opponent and with 93 points they allow in average to their opponents, it will be really hard for them to stop Lakers below 100 points, especially when we compare the bench on both teams. Not only that Lakers starters are better, when the game should be played with second unit, it really should be no contest even.
Lakers took all the starting lines so far and I believe that can extend their run to 10 games at least and maybe even 10 ATS run as well.
Lakers will try to show they are ready to win the West and <st1:City><st1lace>Kobe</st1lace></st1:City> will try to show that Posey can’t stop him.

The totals I like, but haven't checked so bet only live (if I will bet them at all):

Under in Milwaukee
Over in Washington
Over in NO

Best of luck everybody!!!

 

[Satyr]

GL Divol :shake:

 

[JoJo]

Raptors -5.5 - 6 units stake

Last night I saved your money, but didn’t save my own betting the Sixers. I’m sorry, but what a bunch of morons. Is there a negative basketball IQ? If so, Sixers are somewhere in that zone with their coach as well. First of all, each screen or pick and roll simply shocks this team. I have the feeling sometimes, they got a sprint team, dressed them as basketball players and this is the first time they saw that wired orange thing named basketball ball. I stopped counting after 10 the number of fast breaks in which there were two Sixers on three – four ffice:smarttags" /><?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comlace>Utah</ST1lace></st1:State>’s players and they still decided that this is a smart move not to stop the ball and of course missed or turnover the ball. The number of times that one simple screen or a pass sliced Sixer’s defense to half and left Jazz player for easy dunk was twice as much. Their coach actually set the example and decided that if he is in a stupid team, he should lead by example and when Sixers were leading by a point in first quarter, pulled both Miller and Brand of the floor. I wish (and so Sixers fans I bet) he would have looked at the scoreboard. Brand and Miller scored all Sixers points up to that point! Yeah, pulling your only scorers of the court when you up by a point is always a genius move!
The sad thing is that I like this team. They got a passion for the game, great crowd that loves basketball, young team and great tradition. Too bad they don’t have anything else.
Raptors come to this game after losing to Boston and losing three out of the last four and will be looking not to drop to a negative home record (1- 1 currently). The team didn’t play that great against Bobcats and the Celtics, but it was enough to make a great comeback and win against the Bobcats, but than suffered the same faith against the Celtics, squandering a 16 points lead deep in the second half, but at least taking the line.
Both teams met in Philly for season opener and Raptors won easily 95 – 84. Since than, I didn’t see any signs that convinced me that at <st1:City><ST1lace>Toronto</ST1lace></st1:City>, Raptors can win at least by the same margin.

Yup -!

Will be 15 units play for me -Pay back ? LOL...

Parlay with Under 185.5 ( 5 Units)

:cheers:

 

[ManchesterUk]

GL

 

[divol]

Take Clips ML for even odds guys!
I took it 30 units play for trading. It's just a great play here!

 

[divol]

Just traded and no matter what, 10 units each way profit. Hope someone took advantage of that. Kings with short roster and fouls are just flying their way as if there is no tomorrow and they got the bench of the Lakers or something!

 

[divol]

Did the same with Suns and now 10 units if Suns win, but there is still great value in taking the Suns for trading. No way Houston will hold the lead all game, so it is great value for the Suns for trading still!

 

[divol]

Clips still got value for trading - 1.95 for them to win are just too good to pass for trading here. Take it guys if you got this offer.

 

[divol]

HT now, Suns got 2.3 odds ML and Clips got 1.8. Both got value and now if there any takers a whole HT break to take it.

 

[divol]

Mediocre night at tipping going 2 out of 4, trading on Clips saved me a bit, but had an awful night in live bets that I haven't published here (and good thing I haven't) causing me to be down almost 30 units and that really hurts. Got carried away on two bets and shouldn't have.