NBA Odds & Picks April 3: The Cavaliers Are Ready For Battle
Detroit Pistons vs. Atlanta Hawks
Wednesday, April 3, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena
Detroit's Perimeter Defense
Teams that rely on shooting three-pointers are less likely to succeed when they face the Pistons.
This is because they are determined to run opposing teams off the three-point line.
They allow the fifth-fewest three-point attempts per game.
Relatedly, they are one of the best teams at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
Detroit's statistical strength in this area is a consequence of the determination of its front office to build around defense.
The Pistons are also, relatedly, acquiring players who can be effective on defense.
For example, Evan Fournier sometimes in his career has been said to be a bad defender probably due to his time as a Knick.
But his defensive rating improved substantially when he became a Piston.
Last Two Games
Detroit's last games show what I mean.
The Pistons did not score much but nevertheless remained within two points of Memphis. They held the Grizzlies to 33-percent shooting from deep.
Two games ago, they beat the Wizards 96-87, holding the Wizards to a 27.3-percent three-point conversion rate.
Why Perimeter Defense Matters Tonight
Perimeter defense is important particularly tonight because Atlanta's offense relies rather heavily on making three-pointers.
The Hawks attempt the seventh-most threes per game.
Detroit's Offense
On offense, the Pistons primarily want to attack the basket.
Jalen Duren, for example, is a powerful and effective rim-attacker who continues to develop his game to become a more well-rounded player, one who, for example, also has good handles.
With the likes of Duren, Detroit attempts the ninth-most shots per game within five feet of the basket.
Atlanta's Defense
Atlanta's defense is plagued by poor rim protection.
Teams generally want to attack the rim when they face Atlanta.
Within five feet of the basket, the Hawks allow the seventh-highest field goal percentage and the third-highest number of shots made.
It is easy to overestimate the quality of Atlanta's defense because of its performance in its last game.
But it was facing a Chicago team that ranks toward the bottom at scoring at the basket.
The Hawks' weakness is prominent, and it is one that Detroit is built to exploit.
Best Bet: Pistons +11.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Wednesday, April 3, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
Indiana's Offensive Focus
When the Pacers lost Buddy Hield, they lost a tremendous sharpshooter.
Of necessity, this became a team that was less reliant on making threes.
Indiana, in fact, wants to attack the basket more than any other team. It attempts the most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Brooklyn's Rim Protection
The key to Brooklyn's defense is arguably Nic Claxton.
He has good foot speed, allowing him to switch on screens. His quickness also allows him to be an effective rim protector.
As his team's starting center, Claxton is a significant reason why it ranks tenth at limiting opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Given Brooklyn's strength in rim protection, it is well-build to handle Indiana's offense.
Brooklyn's defensive readiness will be especially visible in tonight's rematch situation: the Nets get to face the Pacers outside of Indiana where their shooting is characteristically much more efficient than it is on the road.
Brooklyn's Offense
The Nets are more comfortable attempting shots away from the basket.
They are allergic to scoring in the paint.
Instead, they attempt the ninth-most threes per game.
Indiana's Perimeter Defense
Relying on three-pointers is a bad recipe for a team's offense when it faces Indiana.
The Pacers are uniquely focused on guarding the three-point line.
They are able to switch on defense, which, as the Clippers have shown, presents decisive problems for Brooklyn's offense.
Strong perimeter defenders, such as wing man Aaron Nesmith, also give the Pacers' defense individual quality that any scheme requires.
Statistics that show my point are these: Indiana is the fourth-best team at limiting open three-point attempts, the best team at limiting open wide-open three-point attempts, and the best team at limiting three-point attempts overall.
They clearly excel at contesting and preventing three-point attempts, which is terrible news especially for a team like Brooklyn.
Best Bet: Under 230.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Phoenix Suns
Wednesday, April 3, 2024 at 10 p.m. ET at Footprint Center
Phoenix's Perimeter Defense
Perimeter defense is a tremendous problem for Phoenix.
One obvious example is when the Suns played Milwaukee. The Suns allowed 140 points because the Bucks made a ridiculous 24 three-pointers.
But it's not just the Bucks who are thriving from deep against Phoenix.
New Orleans and Oklahoma City were also highly efficient from deep in the Suns' last two games.
Cleveland's Offense
The Cavaliers are well-built to score a lot on Phoenix because they have made three-pointers an emphasis of their offense.
They are using good spacing and the long range and quick triggers of their players to maximize their shooting potential. Guys have the green light to shoot from deep.
Relative to last year, the Cavaliers have improved tremendously in terms of making threes.
They now rank seventh in the category.
Cleveland's Defensive Outlook
I like the Cavaliers tonight because they are also well-equipped to succeed tonight on defense.
On defense, they have depth with guys like Caris LeVert, who uses his length on the point of attack.
With their depth, they can do well on defense without guys like Jarrett Allen playing, but they also benefit from Allen's perceptible mobility and fluidity as a defender.
With their personnel as well as their tactics against ball-screens and ball-handlers, the Cavs thrive at limiting opponents from the 10-to-19 feet range from the basket, which is the space where Phoenix attempts the most shots per game.
Cleveland is eminently comfortable guarding Phoenix's preferred offensive spaces.
Best Bet: Cavaliers +5.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Detroit Pistons vs. Atlanta Hawks
Wednesday, April 3, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at State Farm Arena
Detroit's Perimeter Defense
Teams that rely on shooting three-pointers are less likely to succeed when they face the Pistons.
This is because they are determined to run opposing teams off the three-point line.
They allow the fifth-fewest three-point attempts per game.
Relatedly, they are one of the best teams at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
Detroit's statistical strength in this area is a consequence of the determination of its front office to build around defense.
The Pistons are also, relatedly, acquiring players who can be effective on defense.
For example, Evan Fournier sometimes in his career has been said to be a bad defender probably due to his time as a Knick.
But his defensive rating improved substantially when he became a Piston.
Last Two Games
Detroit's last games show what I mean.
The Pistons did not score much but nevertheless remained within two points of Memphis. They held the Grizzlies to 33-percent shooting from deep.
Two games ago, they beat the Wizards 96-87, holding the Wizards to a 27.3-percent three-point conversion rate.
Why Perimeter Defense Matters Tonight
Perimeter defense is important particularly tonight because Atlanta's offense relies rather heavily on making three-pointers.
The Hawks attempt the seventh-most threes per game.
Detroit's Offense
On offense, the Pistons primarily want to attack the basket.
Jalen Duren, for example, is a powerful and effective rim-attacker who continues to develop his game to become a more well-rounded player, one who, for example, also has good handles.
With the likes of Duren, Detroit attempts the ninth-most shots per game within five feet of the basket.
Atlanta's Defense
Atlanta's defense is plagued by poor rim protection.
Teams generally want to attack the rim when they face Atlanta.
Within five feet of the basket, the Hawks allow the seventh-highest field goal percentage and the third-highest number of shots made.
It is easy to overestimate the quality of Atlanta's defense because of its performance in its last game.
But it was facing a Chicago team that ranks toward the bottom at scoring at the basket.
The Hawks' weakness is prominent, and it is one that Detroit is built to exploit.
Best Bet: Pistons +11.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Wednesday, April 3, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Barclays Center
Indiana's Offensive Focus
When the Pacers lost Buddy Hield, they lost a tremendous sharpshooter.
Of necessity, this became a team that was less reliant on making threes.
Indiana, in fact, wants to attack the basket more than any other team. It attempts the most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Brooklyn's Rim Protection
The key to Brooklyn's defense is arguably Nic Claxton.
He has good foot speed, allowing him to switch on screens. His quickness also allows him to be an effective rim protector.
As his team's starting center, Claxton is a significant reason why it ranks tenth at limiting opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Given Brooklyn's strength in rim protection, it is well-build to handle Indiana's offense.
Brooklyn's defensive readiness will be especially visible in tonight's rematch situation: the Nets get to face the Pacers outside of Indiana where their shooting is characteristically much more efficient than it is on the road.
Brooklyn's Offense
The Nets are more comfortable attempting shots away from the basket.
They are allergic to scoring in the paint.
Instead, they attempt the ninth-most threes per game.
Indiana's Perimeter Defense
Relying on three-pointers is a bad recipe for a team's offense when it faces Indiana.
The Pacers are uniquely focused on guarding the three-point line.
They are able to switch on defense, which, as the Clippers have shown, presents decisive problems for Brooklyn's offense.
Strong perimeter defenders, such as wing man Aaron Nesmith, also give the Pacers' defense individual quality that any scheme requires.
Statistics that show my point are these: Indiana is the fourth-best team at limiting open three-point attempts, the best team at limiting open wide-open three-point attempts, and the best team at limiting three-point attempts overall.
They clearly excel at contesting and preventing three-point attempts, which is terrible news especially for a team like Brooklyn.
Best Bet: Under 230.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Phoenix Suns
Wednesday, April 3, 2024 at 10 p.m. ET at Footprint Center
Phoenix's Perimeter Defense
Perimeter defense is a tremendous problem for Phoenix.
One obvious example is when the Suns played Milwaukee. The Suns allowed 140 points because the Bucks made a ridiculous 24 three-pointers.
But it's not just the Bucks who are thriving from deep against Phoenix.
New Orleans and Oklahoma City were also highly efficient from deep in the Suns' last two games.
Cleveland's Offense
The Cavaliers are well-built to score a lot on Phoenix because they have made three-pointers an emphasis of their offense.
They are using good spacing and the long range and quick triggers of their players to maximize their shooting potential. Guys have the green light to shoot from deep.
Relative to last year, the Cavaliers have improved tremendously in terms of making threes.
They now rank seventh in the category.
Cleveland's Defensive Outlook
I like the Cavaliers tonight because they are also well-equipped to succeed tonight on defense.
On defense, they have depth with guys like Caris LeVert, who uses his length on the point of attack.
With their depth, they can do well on defense without guys like Jarrett Allen playing, but they also benefit from Allen's perceptible mobility and fluidity as a defender.
With their personnel as well as their tactics against ball-screens and ball-handlers, the Cavs thrive at limiting opponents from the 10-to-19 feet range from the basket, which is the space where Phoenix attempts the most shots per game.
Cleveland is eminently comfortable guarding Phoenix's preferred offensive spaces.
Best Bet: Cavaliers +5.5 at -105 with BetOnline
