Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 23
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Key Trends
Game 1 presents a unique set of challenges for players and coaches.
Players will face a new team for the first time in the playoffs.
Coaches will have to draw a specific game-plan for a team that they will have not seen since the regular season.
Some teams handle this better than others.
One reason why I like the Bucks tonight is that they are not one of these teams.
Since last year, they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in Game 1 of a playoff series.
Last year, they lost as heavy favorites to Orlando as well as to Miami. They edged Miami this year, but failed to cover the spread.
Most recently, they lost by eight at Brooklyn, again failing to cover the spread.
Conversely, this year, Atlanta is 2-0 SU and ATS in Game 1 of a playoff series.
The Hawks won both times on the road and as an underdog.
Star point guard Trae Young loves being a villain -- you can observe this joy in the way that he vociferously interacts with the opposing fans.
Led by the likes of Trae, Atlanta is unphased in even a raucous road environment like in New York or Philadelphia.
Ball-Screens
Speaking of Trae, he excels as the ball-handler in Atlanta's pick-and-roll-heavy offense.
The Hawks run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the most frequency out of any team in these playoffs.
Young is a small and shifty ball-handler who will snake his way to the hoop. He can also pull up or find a lob partner at the basket.
During the regular season, the Bucks allowed the fifth-most points per game against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
The counter to this point is obvious but ultimately unsuccessful. The counter is that regular season defensive stats don't matter so much because players try much harder on defense during the regular season.
But there is something very revealing about Milwaukee's ball-screen defense statistic.
The Bucks are known for their loyalty to drop coverage whereby they position their unscreened defender closer to the basket.
Drop coverage has helped Milwaukee own one of the NBA's worst perimeter defenses, allowing teams to thrive from behind the arc, which is an area that Atlanta's offense has depended on relatively heavily.
But the Bucks don't have a resolution as they've tried out different kinds of ball-screen coverages without success.
While their defense is performing better in the playoffs, Miami's offense struggled because its top scorer -- Jimmy Butler -- doesn't share Trae Young's three-point shooting efficiency and so matched up terribly with Milwaukee's conservative ball-screen defensive style.
As for Milwaukee's other playoff opponent, Brooklyn runs the pick-and-roll for the ball handler play type with one of the lowest frequencies. Brooklyn health issues aside, the Nets are not comparable to Atlanta.
Kevin Huerter and Others
One reason why Atlanta has held playoff opponents this year to 105 points or fewer on eight different occasions is the depth of its defensive quality.
Atlanta is one of the top teams at limiting opposing efficiency at the basket, an area where Milwaukee wants to score especially with Giannis.
Clint Capela contributes to Atlanta's defensive success. He can position himself inside and deter Giannis, who has a tendency to shoot a foolish amount of threes or other jump shots, from attacking the basket.
But the Hawks also have a lot of quality perimeter defenders to counter Milwaukee's reliance on three-point shooting.
Because of these quality defenders, Atlanta in the playoffs has allowed the fourth-lowest frequency of open three-point attempts and the fifth-lowest frequency of wide open three point attempts.
One such defender whom I wish to highlight is Kevin Huerter.
Huerter was -- and still is -- known primarily for his offense, his fluid ball-handling and smooth shot that enabled him to score 27 points in Game 7 against Philadelphia.
But he's also improved massively on defense.
As the Hawks lost key defenders in the early season, Huerter had to step up and guard the likes of James Harden and Bradley Beal.
He limited Beal's scoring and applied successful pressure to Harden.
Overall, he achieved a season-high in steals per game and amassed deflections.
Of the remaining teams, Milwaukee's offensive rating is the worst. Atlanta has the defenders to perpetuate Milwaukee's offensive struggles.
The Verdict
The situation -- in Game 1 -- favors Atlanta. With its ball-screen offense, interior defense, and perimeter defenders, Atlanta will clearly cover the spread tonight.
Best Bet: Hawks +7.5 at -108 with Heritage
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee
Key Trends
Game 1 presents a unique set of challenges for players and coaches.
Players will face a new team for the first time in the playoffs.
Coaches will have to draw a specific game-plan for a team that they will have not seen since the regular season.
Some teams handle this better than others.
One reason why I like the Bucks tonight is that they are not one of these teams.
Since last year, they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in Game 1 of a playoff series.
Last year, they lost as heavy favorites to Orlando as well as to Miami. They edged Miami this year, but failed to cover the spread.
Most recently, they lost by eight at Brooklyn, again failing to cover the spread.
Conversely, this year, Atlanta is 2-0 SU and ATS in Game 1 of a playoff series.
The Hawks won both times on the road and as an underdog.
Star point guard Trae Young loves being a villain -- you can observe this joy in the way that he vociferously interacts with the opposing fans.
Led by the likes of Trae, Atlanta is unphased in even a raucous road environment like in New York or Philadelphia.
Ball-Screens
Speaking of Trae, he excels as the ball-handler in Atlanta's pick-and-roll-heavy offense.
The Hawks run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with the most frequency out of any team in these playoffs.
Young is a small and shifty ball-handler who will snake his way to the hoop. He can also pull up or find a lob partner at the basket.
During the regular season, the Bucks allowed the fifth-most points per game against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
The counter to this point is obvious but ultimately unsuccessful. The counter is that regular season defensive stats don't matter so much because players try much harder on defense during the regular season.
But there is something very revealing about Milwaukee's ball-screen defense statistic.
The Bucks are known for their loyalty to drop coverage whereby they position their unscreened defender closer to the basket.
Drop coverage has helped Milwaukee own one of the NBA's worst perimeter defenses, allowing teams to thrive from behind the arc, which is an area that Atlanta's offense has depended on relatively heavily.
But the Bucks don't have a resolution as they've tried out different kinds of ball-screen coverages without success.
While their defense is performing better in the playoffs, Miami's offense struggled because its top scorer -- Jimmy Butler -- doesn't share Trae Young's three-point shooting efficiency and so matched up terribly with Milwaukee's conservative ball-screen defensive style.
As for Milwaukee's other playoff opponent, Brooklyn runs the pick-and-roll for the ball handler play type with one of the lowest frequencies. Brooklyn health issues aside, the Nets are not comparable to Atlanta.
Kevin Huerter and Others
One reason why Atlanta has held playoff opponents this year to 105 points or fewer on eight different occasions is the depth of its defensive quality.
Atlanta is one of the top teams at limiting opposing efficiency at the basket, an area where Milwaukee wants to score especially with Giannis.
Clint Capela contributes to Atlanta's defensive success. He can position himself inside and deter Giannis, who has a tendency to shoot a foolish amount of threes or other jump shots, from attacking the basket.
But the Hawks also have a lot of quality perimeter defenders to counter Milwaukee's reliance on three-point shooting.
Because of these quality defenders, Atlanta in the playoffs has allowed the fourth-lowest frequency of open three-point attempts and the fifth-lowest frequency of wide open three point attempts.
One such defender whom I wish to highlight is Kevin Huerter.
Huerter was -- and still is -- known primarily for his offense, his fluid ball-handling and smooth shot that enabled him to score 27 points in Game 7 against Philadelphia.
But he's also improved massively on defense.
As the Hawks lost key defenders in the early season, Huerter had to step up and guard the likes of James Harden and Bradley Beal.
He limited Beal's scoring and applied successful pressure to Harden.
Overall, he achieved a season-high in steals per game and amassed deflections.
Of the remaining teams, Milwaukee's offensive rating is the worst. Atlanta has the defenders to perpetuate Milwaukee's offensive struggles.
The Verdict
The situation -- in Game 1 -- favors Atlanta. With its ball-screen offense, interior defense, and perimeter defenders, Atlanta will clearly cover the spread tonight.
Best Bet: Hawks +7.5 at -108 with Heritage
