Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 16
Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
Atlanta's Defensive Adjustments: Embiid
As part of Atlanta's 103-100 win over Philadelphia in Game 4, the Hawks held Philadelphia to 38 points in the second half.
During this second half, Joel Embiid went missing from the 76ers' offensive impetus. He shot 0-for-12.
It seems very reasonable to think that Atlanta's defense is not completely responsible for Embiid's struggles.
Recall that Embiid is playing with a partially torn meniscus. Besides giving him pain and discomfort, it will restrict his movement.
His knee offers an easy explanation for the game-by-game deterioration of both his field goal efficiency and his point total.
But Atlanta is also making him move more on the offensive end.
By keeping him away from the basket. the Hawk defense encourages Embiid to drive or shoot from behind the arc in order to score.
Neither scoring method is preferable to Embiid, especially with his injured knee.
Support For Embiid
It is no coincidence that Philadelphia's lowest-scoring output coincides with Embiid's lowest-scoring performance.
Game 4 notwithstanding, Embiid is clearly the team's leading scorer.
While I like Tobias Harris, there is little else to rely on offensively.
Ben Simmons is often a timid scorer. He'll make some plays happen as a distributor, but he'll try to make his defense compensate for the lack of offense that he generates.
Furkan Korkmaz isn't usually a starter. He's typically been somebody who hopefully brings a spark off the bench.
He's been hit-or-miss with his scoring outputs, resembling other guys like Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey whose game-by-game scoring totals substantiate their inconsistency.
Instead of guys like Simmons or Korkmaz, the 76ers need to rely on strong scoring outputs from Embiid, Harris, and Seth Curry. Those are regular starters, who will typically provide the strongest source of the 76ers' offense in their wins.
The problem with Curry is that Atlanta adjusted its ball-screen coverage. Despite making some rather difficult shots, Curry produced his second-lowest scoring total in the series in Game 4.
Now the Hawks ice the screens that the 76ers set for Curry, thus confining him to one side of the court.
John Collins provided able defense in order to challenge Curry when he rejected the ball-screen and tried to make a difficult shot on his side of the court.
Atlanta's ice coverage produced multiple scoreless stretches for the 76er offense because the offense as a whole is limited primarily when Embiid but especially also when Curry are uncomfortable.
Atlanta's Offensive Adjustments
Kevin Huerter is now in the starting lineup. In Game 4, he played 35 minutes
Huerter gives Atlanta a smooth ball-handler who can also shoot. He isn't always going to score 20 points like he did in Game 2 because his team enjoys multiple strong options from behind the arc.
But he can get hot from deep. He's converting 42.5 percent of his three-point attempts in this series.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is a promising candidate, especially. When guarded by Seth Curry, Bogdanovic ends up in a favorable position behind the arc because Curry wants to participate in Philadelphia's more aggressive ball-screen coverage against Trae Young.
When Curry shows on a screen, he leaves Bogdanovic unattended. Despite attempting 13 threes last game, Bogdanovic wasn't able to make Philadelphia pay.
But he converted 43.8 percent of his three-point attempts during the regular season. So one can count on him to make the 76ers pay.
Even when baskets aren't falling at an efficient rate for Trae, who uses his superior quickness to penetrate inside or to create space for himself behind the arc, he remains a top-level distributor.
In this round, Atlanta is averaging at least as many wide-open threes as any other team that's still alive.
In addition to scoring around 30 per game -- more than one can expect from Philadelphia's top scorer, the hobbling Embiiid -- Trae is able to find a plethora of efficient Hawk shooters for propitious three-point opportunities
Best Bet: Hawks +6.5 at -115 at Bookmaker
Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
Atlanta's Defensive Adjustments: Embiid
As part of Atlanta's 103-100 win over Philadelphia in Game 4, the Hawks held Philadelphia to 38 points in the second half.
During this second half, Joel Embiid went missing from the 76ers' offensive impetus. He shot 0-for-12.
It seems very reasonable to think that Atlanta's defense is not completely responsible for Embiid's struggles.
Recall that Embiid is playing with a partially torn meniscus. Besides giving him pain and discomfort, it will restrict his movement.
His knee offers an easy explanation for the game-by-game deterioration of both his field goal efficiency and his point total.
But Atlanta is also making him move more on the offensive end.
By keeping him away from the basket. the Hawk defense encourages Embiid to drive or shoot from behind the arc in order to score.
Neither scoring method is preferable to Embiid, especially with his injured knee.
Support For Embiid
It is no coincidence that Philadelphia's lowest-scoring output coincides with Embiid's lowest-scoring performance.
Game 4 notwithstanding, Embiid is clearly the team's leading scorer.
While I like Tobias Harris, there is little else to rely on offensively.
Ben Simmons is often a timid scorer. He'll make some plays happen as a distributor, but he'll try to make his defense compensate for the lack of offense that he generates.
Furkan Korkmaz isn't usually a starter. He's typically been somebody who hopefully brings a spark off the bench.
He's been hit-or-miss with his scoring outputs, resembling other guys like Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey whose game-by-game scoring totals substantiate their inconsistency.
Instead of guys like Simmons or Korkmaz, the 76ers need to rely on strong scoring outputs from Embiid, Harris, and Seth Curry. Those are regular starters, who will typically provide the strongest source of the 76ers' offense in their wins.
The problem with Curry is that Atlanta adjusted its ball-screen coverage. Despite making some rather difficult shots, Curry produced his second-lowest scoring total in the series in Game 4.
Now the Hawks ice the screens that the 76ers set for Curry, thus confining him to one side of the court.
John Collins provided able defense in order to challenge Curry when he rejected the ball-screen and tried to make a difficult shot on his side of the court.
Atlanta's ice coverage produced multiple scoreless stretches for the 76er offense because the offense as a whole is limited primarily when Embiid but especially also when Curry are uncomfortable.
Atlanta's Offensive Adjustments
Kevin Huerter is now in the starting lineup. In Game 4, he played 35 minutes
Huerter gives Atlanta a smooth ball-handler who can also shoot. He isn't always going to score 20 points like he did in Game 2 because his team enjoys multiple strong options from behind the arc.
But he can get hot from deep. He's converting 42.5 percent of his three-point attempts in this series.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is a promising candidate, especially. When guarded by Seth Curry, Bogdanovic ends up in a favorable position behind the arc because Curry wants to participate in Philadelphia's more aggressive ball-screen coverage against Trae Young.
When Curry shows on a screen, he leaves Bogdanovic unattended. Despite attempting 13 threes last game, Bogdanovic wasn't able to make Philadelphia pay.
But he converted 43.8 percent of his three-point attempts during the regular season. So one can count on him to make the 76ers pay.
Even when baskets aren't falling at an efficient rate for Trae, who uses his superior quickness to penetrate inside or to create space for himself behind the arc, he remains a top-level distributor.
In this round, Atlanta is averaging at least as many wide-open threes as any other team that's still alive.
In addition to scoring around 30 per game -- more than one can expect from Philadelphia's top scorer, the hobbling Embiiid -- Trae is able to find a plethora of efficient Hawk shooters for propitious three-point opportunities
Best Bet: Hawks +6.5 at -115 at Bookmaker
