Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for June 2
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
Dallas’ Lack of Rim Protection
So far this series, the Clippers are converting 71.7 percent of their field goal attempts within five feet of the basket. This is the highest percentage among playoff teams this year.
They are having so much success at the basket because Dallas lacks quality rim protection.
Particularly Kristaps Porzingis is a defensive catastrophe. Out of 217 players this postseason, he ranks 185th in defensive rating.
Porzingis is too big and slow for small ball, but too weak to offer resistance against bigger players.
In the ball-screen game, Dallas likes to have Porzingis in drop coverage so that he can stay closer to the basket.
But he is still too slow to limit opponents as they drive to the basket.
Porzingis will still play a lot of minutes because Dallas needs him for his offense — I will talk about Porzingis’ offense shortly.
Ideally, other players help Porzingis out. Maxi Kleber is supposed to offer stronger rim protection. But he ranks only four spots better this postseason in defensive rating.
With Porzingis being himself and fellow big man Kleber being off, the Mavericks lack the defensive personnel to deter the Clippers from getting what they want at the basket.
Kawhi Leonard is taking advantage. Also, Paul George is attacking the rim aggressively.
George’s willingness to attack the basket is significant because he is a characteristically streaky three-point shooter.
His success at the basket provides a kind of insurance for the Clipper offense in case he happens to be off from behind the arc.
Threes
The thing about the Clippers is that they are not primarily a team that wants to attack inside.
The fact that they are having more success than any other playoff team right now at scoring efficiently at the basket must generate tremendous confidence in their ability to produce a high scoring output because they are characteristically at their best from behind the arc.
During the regular season, L.A. ranked sixth in three-pointers made per game.
I don’t mean to scare anybody off of believing in Paul George because he is usually a good shooter. In the regular season, he converted 41.1 percent from deep.
But there are also many other guys. Of course there’s Kawhi, who has the reputation for playoff success that George lacks largely because of his inconsistent shooting.
Marcus Morris has also been big. He loves the corner three and he doesn’t shy away from it down the stretch. In the regular season, he converted 47.3 percent of his three-point attempts.
The Clippers can flourish from beyond the arc because, per its defensive scheme, Dallas primarily wants to protect the rim.
Yes, I talked about how bad the Maverick rim protection is. That’s why it was so important to talk about the awful rim protection of guys like Porzingis and Kleber.
Their defensive ineptitude is critically deleterious to the Maverick defensive scheme. Dallas won’t be able to adjust defensively because it lacks the personnel necessary for its scheme.
The Mavericks will — as they’ve been doing all year — concede a relatively high frequency of open or wide open three-point attempts as they adhere to their conservative ball-screen principles in order to try to protect the basket.
Given their defensive scheme, the Mavericks match up poorly on defense against the plethora of good Clipper three-point shooters.
Dallas Offense vs. Clipper Defense
It’s true that the Clipper defense has adjusted. Of course, it’s easier for any defense when the opposing star is hurt. So I want to talk about Luka Doncic first.
His injury — a neck strain — was already endurable enough for him to amass close to 40 minutes with it. But it’s also been two days since he last played. NBA insiders are also reporting that his injury has improved.
So I expect a dramatic uptick from his 19-point output in Game 4. This is a superstar whom L.A. repeatedly fails to stop when he’s in adequate physical condition.
After averaging 30 points against L.A. in the regular season, Doncic scored 31, 39, and 44 points in the first three games of this series. So he will be back.
Still, the Mavs would have floundered in Game 4 because they were abysmal from behind the arc where they converted five of 30 three-point attempts.
They finally experienced the statistical regression that one had to expect from them.
L.A. was also able to tighten its perimeter defense partly because Luka was posing less of a threat and partly because the Clippers adjusted by giving Nicolas Batum more minutes.
But Dallas coach Rick Carlisle is great at making adjustments.
He proved this in multiple games down the stretch of the regular season that had a playoff-type atmosphere because Dallas wanted to avoid the play-in tournament.
He also proved this against good teams that the Mavericks faced twice in a row and beat in the second game after losing the first. One example is, in fact, the Clippers.
Unlike on defense, he has the personnel on offense to make adjustments.
Porzingis has been shooting less often, instead settling for more of a high post role, and allowing guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dorian Finney-Smith to attempt more threes.
One adjustment that Carlisle can make is to involve Porzingis more heavily in Dallas’ three-point attack.
Those other guys will improve partly because Luka will be stronger and will also be more of the great facilitator that he was in the first three games this series.
But Porzingis is a characteristically efficient shooter — he converted 37.6 percent of his three-point attempts in the regular season — by which means he helps space the floor and create more driving space inside for guys like Luka.
The Verdict
The Clippers will continue to thrive inside against Dallas’ awful rim protection.
They will also punish the Mavs for conceding too many open and wide open threes.
Dallas can counter with a healthier Luka, who will create for himself and for a plethora of shooters who will likewise bounce back from an uncharacteristically bad Game 4.
He’ll also be one guy to succeed driving to the basket by attacking the lanes that Porzingis will help open further.
Best Bet: Over 217 at -108 with Heritage
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles
Dallas’ Lack of Rim Protection
So far this series, the Clippers are converting 71.7 percent of their field goal attempts within five feet of the basket. This is the highest percentage among playoff teams this year.
They are having so much success at the basket because Dallas lacks quality rim protection.
Particularly Kristaps Porzingis is a defensive catastrophe. Out of 217 players this postseason, he ranks 185th in defensive rating.
Porzingis is too big and slow for small ball, but too weak to offer resistance against bigger players.
In the ball-screen game, Dallas likes to have Porzingis in drop coverage so that he can stay closer to the basket.
But he is still too slow to limit opponents as they drive to the basket.
Porzingis will still play a lot of minutes because Dallas needs him for his offense — I will talk about Porzingis’ offense shortly.
Ideally, other players help Porzingis out. Maxi Kleber is supposed to offer stronger rim protection. But he ranks only four spots better this postseason in defensive rating.
With Porzingis being himself and fellow big man Kleber being off, the Mavericks lack the defensive personnel to deter the Clippers from getting what they want at the basket.
Kawhi Leonard is taking advantage. Also, Paul George is attacking the rim aggressively.
George’s willingness to attack the basket is significant because he is a characteristically streaky three-point shooter.
His success at the basket provides a kind of insurance for the Clipper offense in case he happens to be off from behind the arc.
Threes
The thing about the Clippers is that they are not primarily a team that wants to attack inside.
The fact that they are having more success than any other playoff team right now at scoring efficiently at the basket must generate tremendous confidence in their ability to produce a high scoring output because they are characteristically at their best from behind the arc.
During the regular season, L.A. ranked sixth in three-pointers made per game.
I don’t mean to scare anybody off of believing in Paul George because he is usually a good shooter. In the regular season, he converted 41.1 percent from deep.
But there are also many other guys. Of course there’s Kawhi, who has the reputation for playoff success that George lacks largely because of his inconsistent shooting.
Marcus Morris has also been big. He loves the corner three and he doesn’t shy away from it down the stretch. In the regular season, he converted 47.3 percent of his three-point attempts.
The Clippers can flourish from beyond the arc because, per its defensive scheme, Dallas primarily wants to protect the rim.
Yes, I talked about how bad the Maverick rim protection is. That’s why it was so important to talk about the awful rim protection of guys like Porzingis and Kleber.
Their defensive ineptitude is critically deleterious to the Maverick defensive scheme. Dallas won’t be able to adjust defensively because it lacks the personnel necessary for its scheme.
The Mavericks will — as they’ve been doing all year — concede a relatively high frequency of open or wide open three-point attempts as they adhere to their conservative ball-screen principles in order to try to protect the basket.
Given their defensive scheme, the Mavericks match up poorly on defense against the plethora of good Clipper three-point shooters.
Dallas Offense vs. Clipper Defense
It’s true that the Clipper defense has adjusted. Of course, it’s easier for any defense when the opposing star is hurt. So I want to talk about Luka Doncic first.
His injury — a neck strain — was already endurable enough for him to amass close to 40 minutes with it. But it’s also been two days since he last played. NBA insiders are also reporting that his injury has improved.
So I expect a dramatic uptick from his 19-point output in Game 4. This is a superstar whom L.A. repeatedly fails to stop when he’s in adequate physical condition.
After averaging 30 points against L.A. in the regular season, Doncic scored 31, 39, and 44 points in the first three games of this series. So he will be back.
Still, the Mavs would have floundered in Game 4 because they were abysmal from behind the arc where they converted five of 30 three-point attempts.
They finally experienced the statistical regression that one had to expect from them.
L.A. was also able to tighten its perimeter defense partly because Luka was posing less of a threat and partly because the Clippers adjusted by giving Nicolas Batum more minutes.
But Dallas coach Rick Carlisle is great at making adjustments.
He proved this in multiple games down the stretch of the regular season that had a playoff-type atmosphere because Dallas wanted to avoid the play-in tournament.
He also proved this against good teams that the Mavericks faced twice in a row and beat in the second game after losing the first. One example is, in fact, the Clippers.
Unlike on defense, he has the personnel on offense to make adjustments.
Porzingis has been shooting less often, instead settling for more of a high post role, and allowing guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dorian Finney-Smith to attempt more threes.
One adjustment that Carlisle can make is to involve Porzingis more heavily in Dallas’ three-point attack.
Those other guys will improve partly because Luka will be stronger and will also be more of the great facilitator that he was in the first three games this series.
But Porzingis is a characteristically efficient shooter — he converted 37.6 percent of his three-point attempts in the regular season — by which means he helps space the floor and create more driving space inside for guys like Luka.
The Verdict
The Clippers will continue to thrive inside against Dallas’ awful rim protection.
They will also punish the Mavs for conceding too many open and wide open threes.
Dallas can counter with a healthier Luka, who will create for himself and for a plethora of shooters who will likewise bounce back from an uncharacteristically bad Game 4.
He’ll also be one guy to succeed driving to the basket by attacking the lanes that Porzingis will help open further.
Best Bet: Over 217 at -108 with Heritage
