Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 26
Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Wednesday, May 26, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
Joel Embiid
It’s often said that the NBA is a superstar-driven league. This is partly true.
Tonight will be decided in part by Embiid’s ability to be more positively impactful on offense than Washington’s guard duo, Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal.
The main reason why I like Embiid more is that he is more difficult for the opponent to match up with.
Simply put, Embiid is a monster. At 7-0, 280 pounds, he brings a tremendous degree of size and physicality in the interior.
Two of his Wizard counterparts — starting center Alex Len and backup Daniel Gafford — weigh approximately 30 and 50 pounds less than Embiid.
While Robin Lopez possesses similar measurements as Embiid, he still needs help guarding him.
Because the Wizards lack suitable options with which to defend Embiid, he averaged 30 points in three regular season games against the Wizards, while accruing a higher average offensive rating against Washington than against close to every other team.
In Game 1, Washington often employed double-teams, but lacked well-sized options with which to bother Embiid even via a double-team.
So Embiid still accrued 30 points while being able to find teammates who were open for shooting opportunities as a result of the extra attention that Embiid drew for himself.
Further Length Advantage For Philadelphia
It’s not just that the Wizards are physically outmatched — that is, in part, outsized — at the center position.
Coach Scott Brooks loves to go with the three-guard lineup. In addition to Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal, he likes to have Raul Neto at the position.
Before the game, Brooks seemed aware of yet somehow simultaneously oblivious to Philadelphia’s physical advantage.
Roughly paraphrased, Brooks said that heart matters more than size.
I don’t contend that 76er players had more heart. But size, clearly, mattered.
Without a longer player at the small forward position, other players besides Embiid were able to use their bodily advantage in the interior.
Most conspicuously, Tobias Harris produced a superb performance. He amassed 37 points largely by driving aggressively inside and finishing over smaller defenders.
I expect these advantages inside to continue to exist for the 76ers and I expect Philadelphia to continue exploiting these advantages because Scott Brooks is known for being inflexible.
One may try to make a case for more variance in Game 2 by digging into the Wizard roster to see who else they could have spend more time at small forward.
But such an approach ignores the loud Brooks naysayers in Washington who have made clear a strong issue that one must have with Brooks: Brooks has, through his history, developed a reputation for failing to make adjustments in the lineup.
In addition to domination from Harris and Embiid, expect more from Ben Simmons. Simmons was off in Game 1, for example shooting a shocking 0-of-6 at the free throw line.
In the regular season, Simmons made the 14th-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket because of his characteristic ability to drive at will on a defense.
He uses his length at 6-11 and athleticism to finish even against contact.
Defense
Length helps Philadelphia on defense, too.
The 76ers possess a ton of lengthy guys — Harris and Simmons are only two starters to name — that they can throw at Westbrook and Beal.
Both Wizard players combined for 12 turnovers partly because of the length of 76er defenders,
On offense, Washington is more dependent on scoring inside, where two Defensive Player of the Year candidates Simmons and rim protector Embiid lurk for Philly’s defense.
The Wizards ranked 28th in three-pointers made during the regular season. So they are more dependent on scoring inside, but face stiff defenders even when Embiid sits and three-time former Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard steps in.
Total
I think Washington can come close to reaching its Game 1 scoring total with more points from Russell Westbrook, who averaged six points more against the 76ers in the regular season.
Philadelphia shot below its regular season average from beyond the arc, but will have a lot of good three-point shooting opportunities because of the threats that it offers inside.
In addition to the team’s three-point shooting, Simmons will improve and help Philly score more than 125 points.
For these reasons, I expect the “over” to hit.
Best Bets: 76ers -8 at -108 with Heritage & Over 230.5 at -108 with Heritage
Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Wednesday, May 26, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia
Joel Embiid
It’s often said that the NBA is a superstar-driven league. This is partly true.
Tonight will be decided in part by Embiid’s ability to be more positively impactful on offense than Washington’s guard duo, Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal.
The main reason why I like Embiid more is that he is more difficult for the opponent to match up with.
Simply put, Embiid is a monster. At 7-0, 280 pounds, he brings a tremendous degree of size and physicality in the interior.
Two of his Wizard counterparts — starting center Alex Len and backup Daniel Gafford — weigh approximately 30 and 50 pounds less than Embiid.
While Robin Lopez possesses similar measurements as Embiid, he still needs help guarding him.
Because the Wizards lack suitable options with which to defend Embiid, he averaged 30 points in three regular season games against the Wizards, while accruing a higher average offensive rating against Washington than against close to every other team.
In Game 1, Washington often employed double-teams, but lacked well-sized options with which to bother Embiid even via a double-team.
So Embiid still accrued 30 points while being able to find teammates who were open for shooting opportunities as a result of the extra attention that Embiid drew for himself.
Further Length Advantage For Philadelphia
It’s not just that the Wizards are physically outmatched — that is, in part, outsized — at the center position.
Coach Scott Brooks loves to go with the three-guard lineup. In addition to Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal, he likes to have Raul Neto at the position.
Before the game, Brooks seemed aware of yet somehow simultaneously oblivious to Philadelphia’s physical advantage.
Roughly paraphrased, Brooks said that heart matters more than size.
I don’t contend that 76er players had more heart. But size, clearly, mattered.
Without a longer player at the small forward position, other players besides Embiid were able to use their bodily advantage in the interior.
Most conspicuously, Tobias Harris produced a superb performance. He amassed 37 points largely by driving aggressively inside and finishing over smaller defenders.
I expect these advantages inside to continue to exist for the 76ers and I expect Philadelphia to continue exploiting these advantages because Scott Brooks is known for being inflexible.
One may try to make a case for more variance in Game 2 by digging into the Wizard roster to see who else they could have spend more time at small forward.
But such an approach ignores the loud Brooks naysayers in Washington who have made clear a strong issue that one must have with Brooks: Brooks has, through his history, developed a reputation for failing to make adjustments in the lineup.
In addition to domination from Harris and Embiid, expect more from Ben Simmons. Simmons was off in Game 1, for example shooting a shocking 0-of-6 at the free throw line.
In the regular season, Simmons made the 14th-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket because of his characteristic ability to drive at will on a defense.
He uses his length at 6-11 and athleticism to finish even against contact.
Defense
Length helps Philadelphia on defense, too.
The 76ers possess a ton of lengthy guys — Harris and Simmons are only two starters to name — that they can throw at Westbrook and Beal.
Both Wizard players combined for 12 turnovers partly because of the length of 76er defenders,
On offense, Washington is more dependent on scoring inside, where two Defensive Player of the Year candidates Simmons and rim protector Embiid lurk for Philly’s defense.
The Wizards ranked 28th in three-pointers made during the regular season. So they are more dependent on scoring inside, but face stiff defenders even when Embiid sits and three-time former Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard steps in.
Total
I think Washington can come close to reaching its Game 1 scoring total with more points from Russell Westbrook, who averaged six points more against the 76ers in the regular season.
Philadelphia shot below its regular season average from beyond the arc, but will have a lot of good three-point shooting opportunities because of the threats that it offers inside.
In addition to the team’s three-point shooting, Simmons will improve and help Philly score more than 125 points.
For these reasons, I expect the “over” to hit.
Best Bets: 76ers -8 at -108 with Heritage & Over 230.5 at -108 with Heritage
