Basketball Betting Analysis: Our Top NBA Picks for May 12
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Utah Jazz
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City
Jordan Clarkson
One may be afraid to bet on Utah because of the absence of injured guards Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell.
But their absences are allowing Utah’s depth to shine. One key player has been point guard Jordan Clarkson.
In his past four games, Clarkson has scored 30, 21, 21, and 41 points.
Clarkson's expanded responsibility as a scorer is allowing him to build off of his career-best year as measured by points per game.
Throughout his career, Clarkson has altered his shot profile, attempting a lower frequency of mid-range shots while instead attempting more three-pointers.
He has made three-point shooting not only a more prominent but also a more effective part of his game.
As a scorer, Clarkson is versatile in the sense that he can accrue especially three-pointers in a variety of ways.
Shot attempt statistics indicate that he is comfortable both as a catch-and-shoot guy and as a player who can score off the dribble.
Besides three-point shooting, Clarkson is an avid driver to the basket. He’ll also make use of ball-screens in order to score.
Joe Ingles
As measured by play-type frequency and PPP (points per possession), Joe Ingles is Utah’s current maestro in the ball-screen game, especially with Mitchell still injured.
At 29 seconds in the following video, you can see an example of Ingles using his ball-handling skills in the ball-screen game in order to knock down a three-pointer:
With his smooth ball-handling skills, he toys with his on-ball defender, sometimes forcing him onto his back where the defender loses the ability to contest Ingles’ shot attempt.
Utah Offense vs. Portland Defense
With Clarkson, Ingles, and others, the Jazz attempt the most threes in the NBA.
They match up well against a Portland defense that allows the sixth-highest frequency of open three-pointers.
Portland’s perimeter defense may seem stouter than it is because, lately, the Trail Blazers have benefitted from facing multiple teams that rank in the bottom six in three-pointers made per game.
But in their last game, the Trail Blazers allowed Houston to convert 18 three-pointers.
Utah easily ranks number one in three-pointers made per game because of the versatility and variety of its individual shooters. The Jazz possess more than enough quality to damage the Portland perimeter defense,
Portland Offense vs. Utah Defense
Portland and Utah have faced two times this season.
In both games, Utah easily covered the spread, limiting a Trail Blazer offense that averages 116 points to 100 and 103 points, respectively.
Likewise, the Jazz limited the Trail Blazer three-point attack to below its average level of productivity.
Perimeter defense is a crucial element against the Trail Blazers because they attempt the second-most three-pointers.
The Jazz perimeter defense is very focused, allowing the lowest rate of open three-pointers and the seventh-lowest rate of wide open three-pointers.
This demonstrably effective focus on three-point defense will help prolong Utah’s ATS success against Portland.
Best Bet: Jazz ATS
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas
Dallas' Offense
Dallas’ offense is not the kind that is run from the sidelines. Rick Carlisle doesn’t like to call plays in order to steer his players from the sidelines.
Instead, the Maverick offense wants to be unpredictable, running actions early in the offense that create a numerical advantage where the defense does not know what Dallas will do offensively..
One thing that Dallas likes to do is execute stack actions.
In a stack action, two different Maverick players will set a screen.
One screen-setter will roll to the basket, another will pop behind the arc.
The ball-handler — probably superstar Luka Doncic — will therefore have three different options:
He can pass to his teammate behind the arc, he can pass to his teammate rolling to the basket, or he can attempt a shot himself.
Depending on how the defense reacts, he’ll make whichever read gives the offense the best chance of scoring.
In this video, you can see examples of Dallas’ stack actions:
Dallas Offense vs. New Orleans Defense
Dallas’ read-and-react offense and floor-spacing — the latter often facilitated by five-out spacing, where all five players are positioned behind the arc — often lead to favorable three-point opportunities.
The Mavericks rank ninth in three-pointers made per game.
They can be effective where they want to be — behind the arc — against a Pelican perimeter defense that allows the eighth-highest rate of open three-point attempts and the fourth-highest rate of wide open three-point attempts.
New Orleans Offense vs. Dallas Defense
The Pelican offense is rather one-dimensional, relying on its inside scoring even to such an extent that defenses will sell out and devote extra defensive attention to securing the interior.
For Dallas, Maxi Kleber is a crucial rim protector and, based on his defensive rating, an effective one.
He is very comfortable executing the Mavericks’ preferred drop coverage in their ball-screen defense.
Both Kleber’s threat as a rim protector and this conservative ball-screen defense help explain why the Mavericks are one of the best teams at deterring opponents from attempting shots within five feet of the basket.
New Orleans, which attempts the highest rate of field goals within five feet of the basket, will struggle to score in the way it most prefers.
Best Bet: Mavericks ATS
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Utah Jazz
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City
Jordan Clarkson
One may be afraid to bet on Utah because of the absence of injured guards Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell.
But their absences are allowing Utah’s depth to shine. One key player has been point guard Jordan Clarkson.
In his past four games, Clarkson has scored 30, 21, 21, and 41 points.
Clarkson's expanded responsibility as a scorer is allowing him to build off of his career-best year as measured by points per game.
Throughout his career, Clarkson has altered his shot profile, attempting a lower frequency of mid-range shots while instead attempting more three-pointers.
He has made three-point shooting not only a more prominent but also a more effective part of his game.
As a scorer, Clarkson is versatile in the sense that he can accrue especially three-pointers in a variety of ways.
Shot attempt statistics indicate that he is comfortable both as a catch-and-shoot guy and as a player who can score off the dribble.
Besides three-point shooting, Clarkson is an avid driver to the basket. He’ll also make use of ball-screens in order to score.
Joe Ingles
As measured by play-type frequency and PPP (points per possession), Joe Ingles is Utah’s current maestro in the ball-screen game, especially with Mitchell still injured.
At 29 seconds in the following video, you can see an example of Ingles using his ball-handling skills in the ball-screen game in order to knock down a three-pointer:
With his smooth ball-handling skills, he toys with his on-ball defender, sometimes forcing him onto his back where the defender loses the ability to contest Ingles’ shot attempt.
Utah Offense vs. Portland Defense
With Clarkson, Ingles, and others, the Jazz attempt the most threes in the NBA.
They match up well against a Portland defense that allows the sixth-highest frequency of open three-pointers.
Portland’s perimeter defense may seem stouter than it is because, lately, the Trail Blazers have benefitted from facing multiple teams that rank in the bottom six in three-pointers made per game.
But in their last game, the Trail Blazers allowed Houston to convert 18 three-pointers.
Utah easily ranks number one in three-pointers made per game because of the versatility and variety of its individual shooters. The Jazz possess more than enough quality to damage the Portland perimeter defense,
Portland Offense vs. Utah Defense
Portland and Utah have faced two times this season.
In both games, Utah easily covered the spread, limiting a Trail Blazer offense that averages 116 points to 100 and 103 points, respectively.
Likewise, the Jazz limited the Trail Blazer three-point attack to below its average level of productivity.
Perimeter defense is a crucial element against the Trail Blazers because they attempt the second-most three-pointers.
The Jazz perimeter defense is very focused, allowing the lowest rate of open three-pointers and the seventh-lowest rate of wide open three-pointers.
This demonstrably effective focus on three-point defense will help prolong Utah’s ATS success against Portland.
Best Bet: Jazz ATS
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks
Wednesday, May 12, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center in Dallas
Dallas' Offense
Dallas’ offense is not the kind that is run from the sidelines. Rick Carlisle doesn’t like to call plays in order to steer his players from the sidelines.
Instead, the Maverick offense wants to be unpredictable, running actions early in the offense that create a numerical advantage where the defense does not know what Dallas will do offensively..
One thing that Dallas likes to do is execute stack actions.
In a stack action, two different Maverick players will set a screen.
One screen-setter will roll to the basket, another will pop behind the arc.
The ball-handler — probably superstar Luka Doncic — will therefore have three different options:
He can pass to his teammate behind the arc, he can pass to his teammate rolling to the basket, or he can attempt a shot himself.
Depending on how the defense reacts, he’ll make whichever read gives the offense the best chance of scoring.
In this video, you can see examples of Dallas’ stack actions:
Dallas Offense vs. New Orleans Defense
Dallas’ read-and-react offense and floor-spacing — the latter often facilitated by five-out spacing, where all five players are positioned behind the arc — often lead to favorable three-point opportunities.
The Mavericks rank ninth in three-pointers made per game.
They can be effective where they want to be — behind the arc — against a Pelican perimeter defense that allows the eighth-highest rate of open three-point attempts and the fourth-highest rate of wide open three-point attempts.
New Orleans Offense vs. Dallas Defense
The Pelican offense is rather one-dimensional, relying on its inside scoring even to such an extent that defenses will sell out and devote extra defensive attention to securing the interior.
For Dallas, Maxi Kleber is a crucial rim protector and, based on his defensive rating, an effective one.
He is very comfortable executing the Mavericks’ preferred drop coverage in their ball-screen defense.
Both Kleber’s threat as a rim protector and this conservative ball-screen defense help explain why the Mavericks are one of the best teams at deterring opponents from attempting shots within five feet of the basket.
New Orleans, which attempts the highest rate of field goals within five feet of the basket, will struggle to score in the way it most prefers.
Best Bet: Mavericks ATS
