Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Nathan Eovaldi
Despite the fact that Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi got rocked in his last home start, he has typically been much worse this season on the road.
Whereas his home ERA this season is 3.47, it is 4.62 on the road.
His relatively large struggles this year on the road are consistent with his career-long struggles specifically at Baltimore's Camden Yards.
In four career starts at this ballpark, he suffers a 5.40 ERA.
Eovaldi vs. Oriole Batters
Active Oriole batters in general hit Eovaldi well.
Four different guys -- Pat Valaika, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, and Pedro Severino -- bat well over .300 in at least seven at-bats against him.
These same hitters also slug over .450 against him.
Zac Lowther
Oriole starter Zac Lowther faces, in the Red Sox, his nightmare opponent.
One may try to dismiss his struggles against Boston because Red Sox batters have accumulated so few at-bats against him.
But their paucity of at-bats against him derives from the fact that they'll knock out Lowther so early out of a game.
In a combined total of 5.2 innings against Boston this year, Lowther has allowed Red Sox hitters to generate 10 runs.
Look out for Alex Verdugo, for example. He is 2-for-2 lifetime against Lowther.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola is in a great spot today after he allowed multiple home runs in his last outing.
After such an outing, he tends to buckle down. For example, after he surrendered two home runs on September 2, he yielded a 1.36 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in his next start in Milwaukee.
This pattern repeats itself. In six outings following one in which he allowed two home runs, he has never yielded worse than a 3.16 FIP and he often performed much better than that.
Max Fried
Brave starter Max Fried is also in a great spot today because he is pitching superbly.
Fried has been pitching well for longer, but his form looks extra strong lately.
He has allowed zero runs in both of his last starts, despite facing San Francisco and then San Diego. He dominated both lineups in their own ballpark.
It makes sense that he is pitching so well now because, historically, he is very much a second-half pitcher. His career ERA specifically in September and October combined is 2.91.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Sonny Gray
Red starter Sonny Gray tends to buckle down after allowing multiple home runs in his previous start.
In three starts that follow such an outing, he yielded an FIP well under 3.00.
Truthfully, he doesn't need to be in a good spot when facing the White Sox.
Chicago hitters have accumulated 66 career at-bats against him and they hit only .106 and slug .242 in those at-bats.
Tim Anderson, for example, is 1-for-9 (.111) against Gray.
Carlos Rodon
White Sox starter Carlos Rodon is in a nice spot because he last pitched on September 20.
Historically, the extra rest benefits him because his ERA is at its lowest in starts where he is coming off over six days of rest.
Rodon also matches up well against Red batters. He primarily throws a fastball and slider: both pitches combine to make up just over 85 percent of his arsenal.
The Reds, however, rank 27th in slugging .386 combined against both pitches from lefties.
The Verdict
Expect the Red Sox and Orioles to combine for a lot of early runs. Meanwhile, the Philly and Brave starters will be locked in a pitcher's duel, as will the Red and White Sox starters.
For the above reasons, parlay the Red Sox/Orioles first-half "over," the Phillies/Braves first-half "under," and the Reds/White Sox first-half "under."
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox/Orioles First-Half Over 5 at -110; Phillies/Braves First-Half Under 4.5 at -125, & Reds/White Sox First-Half Under 4.5 at -130 at +508 odds with Bovada
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Nathan Eovaldi
Despite the fact that Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi got rocked in his last home start, he has typically been much worse this season on the road.
Whereas his home ERA this season is 3.47, it is 4.62 on the road.
His relatively large struggles this year on the road are consistent with his career-long struggles specifically at Baltimore's Camden Yards.
In four career starts at this ballpark, he suffers a 5.40 ERA.
Eovaldi vs. Oriole Batters
Active Oriole batters in general hit Eovaldi well.
Four different guys -- Pat Valaika, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, and Pedro Severino -- bat well over .300 in at least seven at-bats against him.
These same hitters also slug over .450 against him.
Zac Lowther
Oriole starter Zac Lowther faces, in the Red Sox, his nightmare opponent.
One may try to dismiss his struggles against Boston because Red Sox batters have accumulated so few at-bats against him.
But their paucity of at-bats against him derives from the fact that they'll knock out Lowther so early out of a game.
In a combined total of 5.2 innings against Boston this year, Lowther has allowed Red Sox hitters to generate 10 runs.
Look out for Alex Verdugo, for example. He is 2-for-2 lifetime against Lowther.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 7:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Atlanta
Aaron Nola
Philadelphia starter Aaron Nola is in a great spot today after he allowed multiple home runs in his last outing.
After such an outing, he tends to buckle down. For example, after he surrendered two home runs on September 2, he yielded a 1.36 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in his next start in Milwaukee.
This pattern repeats itself. In six outings following one in which he allowed two home runs, he has never yielded worse than a 3.16 FIP and he often performed much better than that.
Max Fried
Brave starter Max Fried is also in a great spot today because he is pitching superbly.
Fried has been pitching well for longer, but his form looks extra strong lately.
He has allowed zero runs in both of his last starts, despite facing San Francisco and then San Diego. He dominated both lineups in their own ballpark.
It makes sense that he is pitching so well now because, historically, he is very much a second-half pitcher. His career ERA specifically in September and October combined is 2.91.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Sonny Gray
Red starter Sonny Gray tends to buckle down after allowing multiple home runs in his previous start.
In three starts that follow such an outing, he yielded an FIP well under 3.00.
Truthfully, he doesn't need to be in a good spot when facing the White Sox.
Chicago hitters have accumulated 66 career at-bats against him and they hit only .106 and slug .242 in those at-bats.
Tim Anderson, for example, is 1-for-9 (.111) against Gray.
Carlos Rodon
White Sox starter Carlos Rodon is in a nice spot because he last pitched on September 20.
Historically, the extra rest benefits him because his ERA is at its lowest in starts where he is coming off over six days of rest.
Rodon also matches up well against Red batters. He primarily throws a fastball and slider: both pitches combine to make up just over 85 percent of his arsenal.
The Reds, however, rank 27th in slugging .386 combined against both pitches from lefties.
The Verdict
Expect the Red Sox and Orioles to combine for a lot of early runs. Meanwhile, the Philly and Brave starters will be locked in a pitcher's duel, as will the Red and White Sox starters.
For the above reasons, parlay the Red Sox/Orioles first-half "over," the Phillies/Braves first-half "under," and the Reds/White Sox first-half "under."
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
Best Bet: Parlay Red Sox/Orioles First-Half Over 5 at -110; Phillies/Braves First-Half Under 4.5 at -125, & Reds/White Sox First-Half Under 4.5 at -130 at +508 odds with Bovada
