Best MLB Parlay Picks Today
Detroit Tigers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, August 25, 2021 at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Tarik Skubal
Tiger starter Tarik Skubal shows solid form as he's allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his last three starts.
For the most part, he's yielded minimal hard contact, but a lot of soft contact, and he's walked few batters in addition to giving up only one home run.
His ERA doesn't look great because he's suffered a few rough patches this season. But right now, he's enjoying one of his good stretches of play.
Cardinal Batters At Home
Skubal looks particularly promising today because, whereas he is performing well, Cardinal batters have been struggling to get much going lately, except for maybe the rare two-run inning.
In their past four games, all of which took place in St. Louis, the Cardinals have exceeded three runs one time. In that exception, they scored four runs.
This season, they have been oddly mediocre at home. Whereas they are scoring 4.33 runs per game on the road, they are scoring 3.81 at home.
For comparison's sake, they produced 4.19 runs per game at home last year and 4.65 at home in 2019.
These odd struggles at home give Detroit more betting value because the Cardinals are favored as heavily as they are simply because they are playing at home today.
Skubal vs. Cardinal Batters
Skubal primarily throws a fastball-slider combo.
Those are the only two pitches that he throws over 20 percent of the time. Both pitches combine for 66.2 percent of his arsenal.
He matches up well against Cardinal batters because they rank dead-last in slugging .360 against these two pitches from lefties.
Jon Lester
One reason why the odds for this game baffle me is the fact that the Cardinals are favored with starting pitcher Jon Lester.
Unlike Skubal, Lester shows terrible form as he's allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last four starts.
Lester vs. Tiger Batters
Even more problematically, Lester is getting pummeled by right-handed batters. This season, they are hitting .324 and slugging .535 against him.
Detroit possesses switch-hitters like Robbie Grossman who are stronger against lefties than righties.
The Tigers also boast plenty of guys who only hit from the right side of the plate and who look particularly favorable against Lester.
Jonathan Schoop hits .300 in his career against Lester. Miguel Cabrera is 15-for-28 (.536) with a .786 slugging rate in his career facing Lester.
Grossman and fellow switch-hitter Jeimer Candelario both hit well over .300 against Lester.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, August 25, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Luis Castillo's Impressive History
When a pitcher has faced a lineup of opposing batters only, let's say, in 40 or 50 at-bats, then a more holistic analysis is necessary to accomplish.
But in this case, Brewer batters have built a very large data sample against Red starter Luis Castillo as they have accumulated 158 career at-bats agains thim.
In those at-bats, they are hitting .228 and slugging .329. They've only hit three home runs.
Christian Yelich, for example, is 5-for-26 (.192) in his career against Castillo.
In most recent years, Castillo has been superb in Milwaukee -- whether Milwaukee's venue has been named Miller Park or American Family Field.
He's allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his last three starts here.
This year, Castillo has allowed one earned run in his last three starts against the Brewers.
Brandon Woodruff vs. Red Batters
One might point out that Brewer starter Brandon Woodruff has succeeded this year against Red batters and that I would be logically inconsistent to overlook this recent success.
But there are two extremely compelling reasons to expect the adage "the third time's the charm" to apply to Cincinnati's chances against Woodruff.
One, plenty of Red batters own promising individual numbers against Woodruff. Four different ones slug at least .500 in at least four at-bats against him.
Two, Cincy hitters match up well against him. They rank sixth in slugging against Woodruff's two favorite pitches -- the fastball and sinker -- from righties combined.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, August 25, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Walker Buehler
Dodger starter Walker Buehler is somebody whom you should trust without thinking twice about it.
Buehler has allowed one earned run in six of his last eight starts. In the two exceptions, he allowed two earned runs while lasting at least seven innings.
Buehler vs. Padre Batters
Petco Park is a great place for Buehler to continue pitching solidly. In his career here, his ERA is 2.65 in three starts.
Expect little from Eric Hosmer, for example, who's 3-for-19 (.158) in his career against Buehler.
Blake Snell
An interesting trend explains why Padre starter Blake Snell finds himself in an exceptionally strong spot today.
In three home starts following a loss, he has allowed a combined total of zero runs in 19 innings.
Moreover, the Dodgers rank below league average in slugging against his two favorite pitches -- the fastball and slider -- from lefties.
The Verdict
The starting pitcher match-ups in St. Louis and in Milwaukee make both underdogs in those cities extremely compelling today.
To close out the evening, expect a pitcher's duel between Buehler and Snell in San Diego.
Best Bet: Parlay Tigers First-Half ML at +115, Reds First-Half ML at +130, Dodgers/Padres First-Half Under 4 at -110 at +844 odds with Bovada
Detroit Tigers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, August 25, 2021 at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Tarik Skubal
Tiger starter Tarik Skubal shows solid form as he's allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his last three starts.
For the most part, he's yielded minimal hard contact, but a lot of soft contact, and he's walked few batters in addition to giving up only one home run.
His ERA doesn't look great because he's suffered a few rough patches this season. But right now, he's enjoying one of his good stretches of play.
Cardinal Batters At Home
Skubal looks particularly promising today because, whereas he is performing well, Cardinal batters have been struggling to get much going lately, except for maybe the rare two-run inning.
In their past four games, all of which took place in St. Louis, the Cardinals have exceeded three runs one time. In that exception, they scored four runs.
This season, they have been oddly mediocre at home. Whereas they are scoring 4.33 runs per game on the road, they are scoring 3.81 at home.
For comparison's sake, they produced 4.19 runs per game at home last year and 4.65 at home in 2019.
These odd struggles at home give Detroit more betting value because the Cardinals are favored as heavily as they are simply because they are playing at home today.
Skubal vs. Cardinal Batters
Skubal primarily throws a fastball-slider combo.
Those are the only two pitches that he throws over 20 percent of the time. Both pitches combine for 66.2 percent of his arsenal.
He matches up well against Cardinal batters because they rank dead-last in slugging .360 against these two pitches from lefties.
Jon Lester
One reason why the odds for this game baffle me is the fact that the Cardinals are favored with starting pitcher Jon Lester.
Unlike Skubal, Lester shows terrible form as he's allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last four starts.
Lester vs. Tiger Batters
Even more problematically, Lester is getting pummeled by right-handed batters. This season, they are hitting .324 and slugging .535 against him.
Detroit possesses switch-hitters like Robbie Grossman who are stronger against lefties than righties.
The Tigers also boast plenty of guys who only hit from the right side of the plate and who look particularly favorable against Lester.
Jonathan Schoop hits .300 in his career against Lester. Miguel Cabrera is 15-for-28 (.536) with a .786 slugging rate in his career facing Lester.
Grossman and fellow switch-hitter Jeimer Candelario both hit well over .300 against Lester.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, August 25, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee
Luis Castillo's Impressive History
When a pitcher has faced a lineup of opposing batters only, let's say, in 40 or 50 at-bats, then a more holistic analysis is necessary to accomplish.
But in this case, Brewer batters have built a very large data sample against Red starter Luis Castillo as they have accumulated 158 career at-bats agains thim.
In those at-bats, they are hitting .228 and slugging .329. They've only hit three home runs.
Christian Yelich, for example, is 5-for-26 (.192) in his career against Castillo.
In most recent years, Castillo has been superb in Milwaukee -- whether Milwaukee's venue has been named Miller Park or American Family Field.
He's allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his last three starts here.
This year, Castillo has allowed one earned run in his last three starts against the Brewers.
Brandon Woodruff vs. Red Batters
One might point out that Brewer starter Brandon Woodruff has succeeded this year against Red batters and that I would be logically inconsistent to overlook this recent success.
But there are two extremely compelling reasons to expect the adage "the third time's the charm" to apply to Cincinnati's chances against Woodruff.
One, plenty of Red batters own promising individual numbers against Woodruff. Four different ones slug at least .500 in at least four at-bats against him.
Two, Cincy hitters match up well against him. They rank sixth in slugging against Woodruff's two favorite pitches -- the fastball and sinker -- from righties combined.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, August 25, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Walker Buehler
Dodger starter Walker Buehler is somebody whom you should trust without thinking twice about it.
Buehler has allowed one earned run in six of his last eight starts. In the two exceptions, he allowed two earned runs while lasting at least seven innings.
Buehler vs. Padre Batters
Petco Park is a great place for Buehler to continue pitching solidly. In his career here, his ERA is 2.65 in three starts.
Expect little from Eric Hosmer, for example, who's 3-for-19 (.158) in his career against Buehler.
Blake Snell
An interesting trend explains why Padre starter Blake Snell finds himself in an exceptionally strong spot today.
In three home starts following a loss, he has allowed a combined total of zero runs in 19 innings.
Moreover, the Dodgers rank below league average in slugging against his two favorite pitches -- the fastball and slider -- from lefties.
The Verdict
The starting pitcher match-ups in St. Louis and in Milwaukee make both underdogs in those cities extremely compelling today.
To close out the evening, expect a pitcher's duel between Buehler and Snell in San Diego.
Best Bet: Parlay Tigers First-Half ML at +115, Reds First-Half ML at +130, Dodgers/Padres First-Half Under 4 at -110 at +844 odds with Bovada
