MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees.
Wednesday, August 4, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Matt Harvey's Meaningless ERA
Baltimore starter Matt Harvey represents an extreme example of how ERA can be a misleading statistic
While Harvey's current ERA looks terrible and is terrible, this statistic represents his performance over the course of the entire season.
A baseball season is long, however, and a pitcher's performances in April are not necessarily relevant to his form in August.
Indeed, Harvey is not pitching like someone with a poor ERA.
In his last three games, he has allowed zero runs while lasting at least six innings.
Harvey vs. Yankee Batters
Harvey owns a 1-0 record with a 2.08 ERA in his one career start in Yankee Stadium.
By itself, this statistic looks meaningless because it is the product of a single game.
However, Harvey also has strong numbers against Yankee batters, which echo his successful history in Yankee Stadium.
In 85 career at-bats against Harvey, Yankee batters are hitting .176 and slugging .365.
Giancarlo Stanton, for example, is 4-for-21 (.190) with 11 strikeouts when Harvey is on the mound.
Jameson Taillon
Yankee starter Jameson Taillon is ready to keep the first five innings in this game low-scoring by matching Harvey's effort.
We can't find a basis for optimism in Taillon's track record against Oriole batters.
While Baltimore batters have only three total hits against Taillon, 20 at-bats represents too small of a data sample.
His form, though, is telling. Like Harvey, Taillon shows superb form. In his last three starts, Taillon has allowed a total of one run.
In his last five starts, he has conceded a total of four runs. His strong form has persisted despite facing Boston twice and Houston once.
Unlike Baltimore, both Boston and Houston rank top-six in runs per game.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, August 4, 2021 at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Chase Anderson
Philadelphia starter Chase Anderson is somebody whose team you should look to fade tonight.
In four career starts in Nationals Park, Anderson's ERA is 11.93.
Don't be fooled by Anderson's apparently strong numbers against National batters.
While, collectively, Washington hits .196 and slugs .304 against Anderson, the Nats have only accumulated a combined total of 46 at-bats against Anderson. 24 of those came from a single player, Josh Bell.
Look for Victor Robles, for example, to get going. He is 2-for-5 (.400) with a double and a home run in his career against Anderson.
Paolo Espino's Fly Ball Tendencies
Washington starter Paolo Espino has especially been effective when he doesn't give up the long ball.
Because he is a fly ball pitcher, it is worth knowing that the wind in Nationals Park is slated to blow inwards tonight at an average of eight MPH.
Also, the Phillies do not hit a high average of home runs per game, like other teams do. The Orioles, for example, regularly belt a high average of home runs in Baltimore where they hit three against Espino.
Espino vs. Philly Batters
Espino's favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws over half of the time.
Philly is in trouble today because it ranks 25th in slugging against Espino's favorite pitch from righties.
Philadelphia batters have seen little of Espino. Bryce Harper, for example, is 0-for-4 against him.
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, August 4, 2021 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Kevin Gausman Will Bounce Back
In his last start, Giant starter Kevin Gausman suffered a bit of tough luck.
His high ERA was largely a product of an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
The 3.39 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) that Gausman yielded in that game reflects how strong his performance actually was.
Gausman will bounce back in Chase Field, where his career ERA is 2.87 in three starts.
Moreover, he has a superb history against Arizona batters, who have hit one home run against him in a combined total of 109 at-bats.
They hit .211 and slug .312 in their career against Gausman. Josh Reddick, for example, is 1-for-7 against him.
Zac Gallen
This year, Arizona starter Zac Gallen has suffered mightily at the hands of Giant batters.
He has faced them twice this year and in neither start did he last three innings. In those two starts, he allowed a combined total of seven earned runs.
Expect Gallen's struggles to continue for match-up reasons. He relies overwhelmingly on the fastball, which the Giants third in slugging .523 against from righties.
The Verdict
Expect a pitching duel between the O's and Yanks and superior efforts from Washington and San Francisco.
For the above reasons, parlay the Orioles/Yankees first-half under, the Nationals first-half money-line, and the Giants full-game run-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Orioles/Yankees Under 5.5 at -125, Nationals first-half ML at -115, and Giants full-game RL at -110 at +542 odds with Bovada
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees.
Wednesday, August 4, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Matt Harvey's Meaningless ERA
Baltimore starter Matt Harvey represents an extreme example of how ERA can be a misleading statistic
While Harvey's current ERA looks terrible and is terrible, this statistic represents his performance over the course of the entire season.
A baseball season is long, however, and a pitcher's performances in April are not necessarily relevant to his form in August.
Indeed, Harvey is not pitching like someone with a poor ERA.
In his last three games, he has allowed zero runs while lasting at least six innings.
Harvey vs. Yankee Batters
Harvey owns a 1-0 record with a 2.08 ERA in his one career start in Yankee Stadium.
By itself, this statistic looks meaningless because it is the product of a single game.
However, Harvey also has strong numbers against Yankee batters, which echo his successful history in Yankee Stadium.
In 85 career at-bats against Harvey, Yankee batters are hitting .176 and slugging .365.
Giancarlo Stanton, for example, is 4-for-21 (.190) with 11 strikeouts when Harvey is on the mound.
Jameson Taillon
Yankee starter Jameson Taillon is ready to keep the first five innings in this game low-scoring by matching Harvey's effort.
We can't find a basis for optimism in Taillon's track record against Oriole batters.
While Baltimore batters have only three total hits against Taillon, 20 at-bats represents too small of a data sample.
His form, though, is telling. Like Harvey, Taillon shows superb form. In his last three starts, Taillon has allowed a total of one run.
In his last five starts, he has conceded a total of four runs. His strong form has persisted despite facing Boston twice and Houston once.
Unlike Baltimore, both Boston and Houston rank top-six in runs per game.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, August 4, 2021 at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Chase Anderson
Philadelphia starter Chase Anderson is somebody whose team you should look to fade tonight.
In four career starts in Nationals Park, Anderson's ERA is 11.93.
Don't be fooled by Anderson's apparently strong numbers against National batters.
While, collectively, Washington hits .196 and slugs .304 against Anderson, the Nats have only accumulated a combined total of 46 at-bats against Anderson. 24 of those came from a single player, Josh Bell.
Look for Victor Robles, for example, to get going. He is 2-for-5 (.400) with a double and a home run in his career against Anderson.
Paolo Espino's Fly Ball Tendencies
Washington starter Paolo Espino has especially been effective when he doesn't give up the long ball.
Because he is a fly ball pitcher, it is worth knowing that the wind in Nationals Park is slated to blow inwards tonight at an average of eight MPH.
Also, the Phillies do not hit a high average of home runs per game, like other teams do. The Orioles, for example, regularly belt a high average of home runs in Baltimore where they hit three against Espino.
Espino vs. Philly Batters
Espino's favorite pitch is his fastball, which he throws over half of the time.
Philly is in trouble today because it ranks 25th in slugging against Espino's favorite pitch from righties.
Philadelphia batters have seen little of Espino. Bryce Harper, for example, is 0-for-4 against him.
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, August 4, 2021 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Kevin Gausman Will Bounce Back
In his last start, Giant starter Kevin Gausman suffered a bit of tough luck.
His high ERA was largely a product of an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
The 3.39 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) that Gausman yielded in that game reflects how strong his performance actually was.
Gausman will bounce back in Chase Field, where his career ERA is 2.87 in three starts.
Moreover, he has a superb history against Arizona batters, who have hit one home run against him in a combined total of 109 at-bats.
They hit .211 and slug .312 in their career against Gausman. Josh Reddick, for example, is 1-for-7 against him.
Zac Gallen
This year, Arizona starter Zac Gallen has suffered mightily at the hands of Giant batters.
He has faced them twice this year and in neither start did he last three innings. In those two starts, he allowed a combined total of seven earned runs.
Expect Gallen's struggles to continue for match-up reasons. He relies overwhelmingly on the fastball, which the Giants third in slugging .523 against from righties.
The Verdict
Expect a pitching duel between the O's and Yanks and superior efforts from Washington and San Francisco.
For the above reasons, parlay the Orioles/Yankees first-half under, the Nationals first-half money-line, and the Giants full-game run-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Orioles/Yankees Under 5.5 at -125, Nationals first-half ML at -115, and Giants full-game RL at -110 at +542 odds with Bovada
