MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Robbie Ray
Toronto starter Robbie Ray is in a great spot today for two reasons.
The first reason is that, because he had been slated to pitch in yesterday's game which was postponed, he will pitch today with extra rest.
In his career, Ray's ERA is at its lowest when he gets six or more days of rest. When pitching after at least as many days of rest, his career ERA is 3.07.
Ray is also in a great spot because he is coming off a loss. This season, he is 3-0 in four starts after a loss.
He allowed a total of two earned runs in those four starts. It's not like he just faced easy opponents, either.
One of those four starts came against the Rays, who rank sixth in runs per game.
Garrett Richards
Red Sox starter Garrett Richards is in a bad spot because he's pitching in Game 1 of this doubleheader and Game 1 takes place during the day.
So far this season, Boston is 0-4 in Richards' four daytime starts.
To be fair, Red Sox batters contribute a little to this trend because Richards' ERA is actually lower -- albeit slightly -- this season during the day than at night.
But Richards' current form gives no reason to expect him to pitch well today.
He has yielded an ERA well over 5.00 in seven of his last eight starts.
I also dislike Richards today because Blue Jay batters match up well against him.
They rank second in slugging against his favorite pitches -- the fastball and slider, which make up just over 80 percent of his arsenal -- from righties.
Active Blue Jay batters have accumulated a .297 BA and .450 slugging rate in 111 combined at-bats against Richards.
Look out especially for Vladamir Guerrero Jr., who hits 6-for-9 (.667) with three doubles and a homer against Richards.
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park
Patrick Corbin
National starter Patrick Corbin has last four out of his last five starts.
His worst starts, however, have come most recently as he's allowed a combined total of 10 runs in his last two starts.
Now, two starts hardly make up a trend. But Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia seems like an awful venue for Corbin to turn things around in.
In five career starts in Philadelphia, he suffers a 5.72 ERA.
While Andrew McCutchen drags down the team's overall numbers against Corbin, plenty of other Philadelphia batters hit him well.
Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera are just two who slug at least .500 in over 10 career at-bats against Corbin.
Zack Wheeler
One should not expect Philly starter Zack Wheeler to help keep these first five innings low-scoring for two reasons.
For starters, he matches up poorly against National batters.
Wheeler primarily throws a fastball, slider, and sinker. Together, these pitches make up just over 85 percent of his arsenal.
National batters, however, rank eighth in slugging .434 against these pitches from righties.
Active National batters, as you'd expect, hit Wheeler really well. In a combined total of 176 at-bats, they hit .301 and slug .455 against him.
Look out, for example, for Gerardo Parra, who is 10-for-20 (.500) with one double and one homer in his career against Wheeler.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Tyler Mahle
Red starter Tyler Mahle looks promising today because he gets to pitch in Wrigley Field.
At this venue, he yields a 2.73 ERA in five career starts.
One should expect Mahle to perform well at Wrigley Field, where Cub batters rank 25th in slugging .390 against Mahle's two favorite pitches by far -- the fastball and slider -- combined from righties.
Most of Chicago's success against Mahle has come from power, especially from home runs from Kris Bryant.
But it seems unlikely that Bryant hits a home run today because Bryant hit one yesterday and has yet to hit homers in back-to-back games this season.
Overall, Cub batters do not hit well for average against Mahle. Their combined career BA is .208 in 149 at-bats against Mahle.
Zach Davies
Cub starter Zach Davies is in trouble today against a Red lineup that matches up well against him.
Cincinnati ranks seventh in slugging against Davies' two favorite pitches -- the fastball and change-up, which combine to make up 85 percent of his arsenal -- from righties combined.
In 106 at-bats, active Red batters hit .302 and slug .472 against Davies.
Plenty of opposite-handed batters reliably hit him well with one example being Joey Votto, who is slugging an absurd .662 in this month.
Also look out for righty Eugenio Suarez, whose .438 career slugging rate against Davies makes him redoubtable even as it pales in comparison to Votto's .484.
Red batters are also hot, having scored at least five runs in each of their last five games.
Parlay Verdict
Expect Ray to easily outduel Richards in a seven-inning contest, Philly and National batters to produce a high-scoring first five innings, and the Reds to enjoy at least a strong start at Wrigley Field.
For the above reasons, parlay the Blue Jays ML, Phillies/Nationals first-half over, and Reds first-half money-line.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
Best Bet: Parlay Blue Jays ML, Phillies/Nationals First-Half Over, and Reds First-Half ML (Odds TBA)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park in Boston
Robbie Ray
Toronto starter Robbie Ray is in a great spot today for two reasons.
The first reason is that, because he had been slated to pitch in yesterday's game which was postponed, he will pitch today with extra rest.
In his career, Ray's ERA is at its lowest when he gets six or more days of rest. When pitching after at least as many days of rest, his career ERA is 3.07.
Ray is also in a great spot because he is coming off a loss. This season, he is 3-0 in four starts after a loss.
He allowed a total of two earned runs in those four starts. It's not like he just faced easy opponents, either.
One of those four starts came against the Rays, who rank sixth in runs per game.
Garrett Richards
Red Sox starter Garrett Richards is in a bad spot because he's pitching in Game 1 of this doubleheader and Game 1 takes place during the day.
So far this season, Boston is 0-4 in Richards' four daytime starts.
To be fair, Red Sox batters contribute a little to this trend because Richards' ERA is actually lower -- albeit slightly -- this season during the day than at night.
But Richards' current form gives no reason to expect him to pitch well today.
He has yielded an ERA well over 5.00 in seven of his last eight starts.
I also dislike Richards today because Blue Jay batters match up well against him.
They rank second in slugging against his favorite pitches -- the fastball and slider, which make up just over 80 percent of his arsenal -- from righties.
Active Blue Jay batters have accumulated a .297 BA and .450 slugging rate in 111 combined at-bats against Richards.
Look out especially for Vladamir Guerrero Jr., who hits 6-for-9 (.667) with three doubles and a homer against Richards.
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park
Patrick Corbin
National starter Patrick Corbin has last four out of his last five starts.
His worst starts, however, have come most recently as he's allowed a combined total of 10 runs in his last two starts.
Now, two starts hardly make up a trend. But Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia seems like an awful venue for Corbin to turn things around in.
In five career starts in Philadelphia, he suffers a 5.72 ERA.
While Andrew McCutchen drags down the team's overall numbers against Corbin, plenty of other Philadelphia batters hit him well.
Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera are just two who slug at least .500 in over 10 career at-bats against Corbin.
Zack Wheeler
One should not expect Philly starter Zack Wheeler to help keep these first five innings low-scoring for two reasons.
For starters, he matches up poorly against National batters.
Wheeler primarily throws a fastball, slider, and sinker. Together, these pitches make up just over 85 percent of his arsenal.
National batters, however, rank eighth in slugging .434 against these pitches from righties.
Active National batters, as you'd expect, hit Wheeler really well. In a combined total of 176 at-bats, they hit .301 and slug .455 against him.
Look out, for example, for Gerardo Parra, who is 10-for-20 (.500) with one double and one homer in his career against Wheeler.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field in Chicago
Tyler Mahle
Red starter Tyler Mahle looks promising today because he gets to pitch in Wrigley Field.
At this venue, he yields a 2.73 ERA in five career starts.
One should expect Mahle to perform well at Wrigley Field, where Cub batters rank 25th in slugging .390 against Mahle's two favorite pitches by far -- the fastball and slider -- combined from righties.
Most of Chicago's success against Mahle has come from power, especially from home runs from Kris Bryant.
But it seems unlikely that Bryant hits a home run today because Bryant hit one yesterday and has yet to hit homers in back-to-back games this season.
Overall, Cub batters do not hit well for average against Mahle. Their combined career BA is .208 in 149 at-bats against Mahle.
Zach Davies
Cub starter Zach Davies is in trouble today against a Red lineup that matches up well against him.
Cincinnati ranks seventh in slugging against Davies' two favorite pitches -- the fastball and change-up, which combine to make up 85 percent of his arsenal -- from righties combined.
In 106 at-bats, active Red batters hit .302 and slug .472 against Davies.
Plenty of opposite-handed batters reliably hit him well with one example being Joey Votto, who is slugging an absurd .662 in this month.
Also look out for righty Eugenio Suarez, whose .438 career slugging rate against Davies makes him redoubtable even as it pales in comparison to Votto's .484.
Red batters are also hot, having scored at least five runs in each of their last five games.
Parlay Verdict
Expect Ray to easily outduel Richards in a seven-inning contest, Philly and National batters to produce a high-scoring first five innings, and the Reds to enjoy at least a strong start at Wrigley Field.
For the above reasons, parlay the Blue Jays ML, Phillies/Nationals first-half over, and Reds first-half money-line.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
Best Bet: Parlay Blue Jays ML, Phillies/Nationals First-Half Over, and Reds First-Half ML (Odds TBA)
