MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, July 7, 2021 at 2:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington
Kyle Gibson's Great Season
Ranger starter Kyle Gibson is enjoying the best season of his career as measured by various stats like ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
His strong season-long numbers also reflect his most recent performances as he has not allowed more than two runs in a game since May 5. May 5 was, in fact, the date of his worst start since his season opener.
This year, Gibson has sought to inject more variety into his arsenal by throwing a cutter more regularly. This added element of his repertoire gives batters more to think about.
While this minor alteration in Gibson's pitching is helpful to him, his success with his most favored pitches occupies superior importance.
Specifically, Gibson throws his sinker most and this pitch is yielding a drastically lower BA and slugging rate than it did last year.
This pitch benefits from Gibson's consistent ability to locate it along the borders of the strike zone.
Gibson vs. Tiger Batters
As a former Minnesota Twin, Gibson has accumulated significant experience against active Tiger batters.
Despite facing an inferior version of Gibson in previous seasons, Tiger hitters have poor numbers against him.
In a combined total of 118 at-bats, they are hitting .246 and slugging .343 versus Gibson.
Casey Mize vs. Ranger Batters
Tiger starter Casey Mize already enjoys variety in his pitching arsenal. He doesn't throw a single pitch with more than 30-percent frequency.
He promises to thrive against Ranger batters today because they rank below-average in slugging against his three favorite pitches -- the slider, sinker, and fastball -- from righties.
Trends
Both teams play strongly to the "under" in daytime games.
The "under" is hitting in 69.2 percent of Tiger games and in 63 percent of Ranger ones.
I lean towards the Tigers today because the Rangers are 0-3 after scoring double digits in the previous game.
But I like Gibson and they scored four, one, and three runs in those games, respectively.
So expect a low-scoring duel between both starting pitchers.
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, July 7, 2021 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Andrew Heaney's Form
Angel starter Andrew Heaney is manifestly in terrible shape right now.
In his last two starts, he has allowed a combined total of 12 runs and five home runs.
Heaney vs. Red Sox Batters
This recent and pronounced tendency to surrender home runs is worrisome against a powerful Red Sox lineup that ranks 10th in home runs per game.
Questions surrounding Heaney's form aside, active Boston batters hit Heaney well.
In 56 at-bats against him, they're batting .268 and slugging .536.
Look out especially for J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. Both own a BA of at least .500 and a slugging rate of at least .900 in a combined total of 14 at-bats against Heaney.
As a team, the Red Sox enjoy hitting against lefties -- Heaney being no exception. They have the seventh-highest slugging rate against southpaws.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Angel Batters
While Angel batters have seen little of Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez, they must be looking forward to facing a lefty. They rank right behind Boston in slugging rate against lefties.
They also hit tremendously better at home where their slugging rate is easily an MLB-best .585 against Rodriguez's three favorite pitches -- the fastball, change-up and cutter -- from lefties combined.
Their more redoubtable hitting prowess at home helps explain why the "over" hits in 65.9-percent of Angel home games.
Expect another "over" today thanks to the ability of both lineups to dominate the opposing starting pitcher.
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, July 7, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Luis Garcia's Lucky Start
In his last start against Oakland, Astro starter Luis Garcia only allowed two runs in five innings.
But Garcia benefitted from yielding a fortunately very low BABIP (batting average of balls in play), despite generating soft contact at just a 9.1-percent rate. His FIP was 6.76.
One can't count on Garcia to be so lucky again, especially given Oakland's match-up advantage against him.
Garcia primarily throws a fastball -- he throws it nearly half the time. Athletic hitters match up well with him because they rank seventh in slugging against the fastball from righties.
Sean Manaea's Second Home
Oakland starter Sean Manaea is being treated by MLB Oddsmakers as if he were on the road.
But he is very much playing in a sort of second home tonight.
He knows Houston's Minute Maid Park rather well and has cultivated unique success there.
In seven career starts in Houston's ballpark, he's allowing a 1.85 ERA.
Expect little from Jose Altuve, who's slugging .342 in 38 career at-bats against Manaea.
Manaea's ballpark history helps justify taking Oakland at plus-money.
I like to focus on starting pitchers since we can't predict which relievers will enter the game.
Best Bet: Tigers/Rangers First-Half Under 4 at -105, Red Sox/Angels First-Half Over 5 at -115, Athletics First-Half ML at +110 at +667 odds with Bovada
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, July 7, 2021 at 2:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field in Arlington
Kyle Gibson's Great Season
Ranger starter Kyle Gibson is enjoying the best season of his career as measured by various stats like ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
His strong season-long numbers also reflect his most recent performances as he has not allowed more than two runs in a game since May 5. May 5 was, in fact, the date of his worst start since his season opener.
This year, Gibson has sought to inject more variety into his arsenal by throwing a cutter more regularly. This added element of his repertoire gives batters more to think about.
While this minor alteration in Gibson's pitching is helpful to him, his success with his most favored pitches occupies superior importance.
Specifically, Gibson throws his sinker most and this pitch is yielding a drastically lower BA and slugging rate than it did last year.
This pitch benefits from Gibson's consistent ability to locate it along the borders of the strike zone.
Gibson vs. Tiger Batters
As a former Minnesota Twin, Gibson has accumulated significant experience against active Tiger batters.
Despite facing an inferior version of Gibson in previous seasons, Tiger hitters have poor numbers against him.
In a combined total of 118 at-bats, they are hitting .246 and slugging .343 versus Gibson.
Casey Mize vs. Ranger Batters
Tiger starter Casey Mize already enjoys variety in his pitching arsenal. He doesn't throw a single pitch with more than 30-percent frequency.
He promises to thrive against Ranger batters today because they rank below-average in slugging against his three favorite pitches -- the slider, sinker, and fastball -- from righties.
Trends
Both teams play strongly to the "under" in daytime games.
The "under" is hitting in 69.2 percent of Tiger games and in 63 percent of Ranger ones.
I lean towards the Tigers today because the Rangers are 0-3 after scoring double digits in the previous game.
But I like Gibson and they scored four, one, and three runs in those games, respectively.
So expect a low-scoring duel between both starting pitchers.
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, July 7, 2021 at 4:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Andrew Heaney's Form
Angel starter Andrew Heaney is manifestly in terrible shape right now.
In his last two starts, he has allowed a combined total of 12 runs and five home runs.
Heaney vs. Red Sox Batters
This recent and pronounced tendency to surrender home runs is worrisome against a powerful Red Sox lineup that ranks 10th in home runs per game.
Questions surrounding Heaney's form aside, active Boston batters hit Heaney well.
In 56 at-bats against him, they're batting .268 and slugging .536.
Look out especially for J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. Both own a BA of at least .500 and a slugging rate of at least .900 in a combined total of 14 at-bats against Heaney.
As a team, the Red Sox enjoy hitting against lefties -- Heaney being no exception. They have the seventh-highest slugging rate against southpaws.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Angel Batters
While Angel batters have seen little of Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez, they must be looking forward to facing a lefty. They rank right behind Boston in slugging rate against lefties.
They also hit tremendously better at home where their slugging rate is easily an MLB-best .585 against Rodriguez's three favorite pitches -- the fastball, change-up and cutter -- from lefties combined.
Their more redoubtable hitting prowess at home helps explain why the "over" hits in 65.9-percent of Angel home games.
Expect another "over" today thanks to the ability of both lineups to dominate the opposing starting pitcher.
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, July 7, 2021 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Luis Garcia's Lucky Start
In his last start against Oakland, Astro starter Luis Garcia only allowed two runs in five innings.
But Garcia benefitted from yielding a fortunately very low BABIP (batting average of balls in play), despite generating soft contact at just a 9.1-percent rate. His FIP was 6.76.
One can't count on Garcia to be so lucky again, especially given Oakland's match-up advantage against him.
Garcia primarily throws a fastball -- he throws it nearly half the time. Athletic hitters match up well with him because they rank seventh in slugging against the fastball from righties.
Sean Manaea's Second Home
Oakland starter Sean Manaea is being treated by MLB Oddsmakers as if he were on the road.
But he is very much playing in a sort of second home tonight.
He knows Houston's Minute Maid Park rather well and has cultivated unique success there.
In seven career starts in Houston's ballpark, he's allowing a 1.85 ERA.
Expect little from Jose Altuve, who's slugging .342 in 38 career at-bats against Manaea.
Manaea's ballpark history helps justify taking Oakland at plus-money.
I like to focus on starting pitchers since we can't predict which relievers will enter the game.
Best Bet: Tigers/Rangers First-Half Under 4 at -105, Red Sox/Angels First-Half Over 5 at -115, Athletics First-Half ML at +110 at +667 odds with Bovada
