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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Utah Jazz
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at Vivint Smart Home Arena
Rudy Gobert's Change In Defensive Success
In the first two games of this series against L.A., Rudy Gobert's defensive rating was 103.6.
103.6 is very solid. This defensive rating is comparable to that which former Defensive Player of the Year finalists Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are achieving right now in their series.
However, excluding the first two games of this series and focusing on Games 3 and 4, Gobert's defensive rating is 119.5. (In case you don't know, a defensive rating is worse when it's higher).
This is a dramatic difference, a difference that explains why the Clippers won both Game 3 and Game 4 by double digits.
So we have to ask several relevant questions: does Gobert's defensive success matter that much to the series? Was Gobert just off his game or does another cause explain his lack of success, a cause that we can expect to resurface in Game 5? If the latter, can Utah adjust?
Gobert's Importance
Gobert definitely matters because he is Utah's defensive anchor. He is the three-time Defensive Player of the Year primarily because of his rim protection.
When Gobert can sit at the basket, he will swat anything that comes his way. His rim protection also allows teammates to guard the perimeter more aggressively.
Utah perimeter defenders can afford to be more aggressive when they know that Gobert is behind them to make up for their mistakes.
L.A.'s Adjustment
The Clippers knew that they could not let Gobert simply sit at the basket and amass two or three blocks per game in addition to discouraging opposing shots at the basket and limiting their efficiency.
So they went to small ball. One important element in their lineup is Nicolas Batum, who accrued 35 minutes in Game 3 and 32 minutes in Game 4 after seeing 27 minutes in Game 2 and 21 in Game 1.
With Nicolas Batum next to Marcus Morris, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George, the Clipper offense showcases more speed and shooting ability.
Batum is being asked to attempt even more threes. He attempted six in both Games 3 and 4. He remains an efficient shooting option as he's converting half of his three-point attempts this series.
Morris also gladly takes a lot of threes especially in the corner. He converted 47.3 percent of his threes during the regular season. Kawhi and Paul George also averaged over 39 percent from deep during the regular season while attempting a high volume of them.
These guys make use of their shooting ability to force Gobert away from the basket and to force him to guard the perimeter.
By forcing him out to the perimeter, they nullify his strength, which is rim protection.
With strong spacing, the Clippers are averaging 2.3 more wide open three-point attempts in Games 3 and 4 than they averaged during the regular season.
L.A. is doing a lot of drive-and-kick, attacking Gobert when he is inside and then kicking the ball back out.
The Clippers are also taking advantage of having guys who can effectively pick-and-pop.
With the drive-and-kick and the pick-and-pop, L.A. exploits the slowness with which Gobert tries to recover back to the perimeter.
When the Clippers scored 118 points in Game 4, they actually finished right below their season average in three-point percentage because they are also able to have more success inside the arc because of how they have adjusted for Gobert.
Can Utah Adjust?
Utah cannot adjust because it relies so heavily on Gobert's defense.
On the perimeter, the Jazz lack quality defenders.
For example, they rely on Royce O'Neale to limit L.A.'s top scorer, Kawhi. O'Neale received all of two votes for NBA All-Defensive Second Team and Kawhi is taking advantage of his lack of quality.
In this round, O'Neale's defensive rating is 121.6 and Kawhi continues to heat up, exceeding 30 points in Games 3 and 4.
Georges Niang, Bojan Bogdanovic, and other guys are trying to stay in front of their man along the perimeter, but are struggling to do so, and they miss Gobert's clean-up presence behind them.
On the other side, L.A. simply has too many dangerous shooters -- I mentioned Batum, Morris, PG, and Kawhi, but there are even more guys who share their efficiency and effectivity behind the arc.
Terance Mann's Defense
While small-ball means giving up size, the Clippers still have sufficient length. With their length, they maintain a strong presence inside while they are disruptive along the perimeter and clog Utah's passing lanes.
Their disruptiveness is evident in the ball-pressure that they use their small-ball and concomitant ability to switch to amplify. Ball-pressure makes it harder for the Jazz offensive to find a rhythm and it makes life harder for Jazz point guard Donovan Mitchell.
After committing five turnovers in Game 4, Mitchell, himself less than healthy, misses having fellow ball-handler Mike Conley with him on the court to alleviate ball-handling responsibility. Conley is listed as 'questionable' for Game 5.
One key player for L.A.'s defense is Terance Mann. After more than quadrupling his minute total in Games 3 and 4, Mann is making a difference with his top-level 92.2 defensive rating.
In this series, Mann has played a total of 44 minutes with almost all of them coming in Games 3 and 4. In those 44 minutes, L.A. has outscored the Jazz by 42 points.
Total Verdict
L.A. is routinely scoring more after emphasizing small ball. The Clippers are taking away Gobert's strengths and exploiting Utah's dearth of quality perimeter defenders.
While Utah's offense is disrupted and often made stagnant by L.A.'s increased pressure, the Jazz are still amassing plenty of open and wide open three-point looks, which one must expect them to convert at a high rate given their high-ranking three-point percentage.
Best Bet: Parlay Clippers +3 at -114 & Over 222 at -110 at +258 odds with Bookmaker
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Utah Jazz
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) at Vivint Smart Home Arena
Rudy Gobert's Change In Defensive Success
In the first two games of this series against L.A., Rudy Gobert's defensive rating was 103.6.
103.6 is very solid. This defensive rating is comparable to that which former Defensive Player of the Year finalists Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are achieving right now in their series.
However, excluding the first two games of this series and focusing on Games 3 and 4, Gobert's defensive rating is 119.5. (In case you don't know, a defensive rating is worse when it's higher).
This is a dramatic difference, a difference that explains why the Clippers won both Game 3 and Game 4 by double digits.
So we have to ask several relevant questions: does Gobert's defensive success matter that much to the series? Was Gobert just off his game or does another cause explain his lack of success, a cause that we can expect to resurface in Game 5? If the latter, can Utah adjust?
Gobert's Importance
Gobert definitely matters because he is Utah's defensive anchor. He is the three-time Defensive Player of the Year primarily because of his rim protection.
When Gobert can sit at the basket, he will swat anything that comes his way. His rim protection also allows teammates to guard the perimeter more aggressively.
Utah perimeter defenders can afford to be more aggressive when they know that Gobert is behind them to make up for their mistakes.
L.A.'s Adjustment
The Clippers knew that they could not let Gobert simply sit at the basket and amass two or three blocks per game in addition to discouraging opposing shots at the basket and limiting their efficiency.
So they went to small ball. One important element in their lineup is Nicolas Batum, who accrued 35 minutes in Game 3 and 32 minutes in Game 4 after seeing 27 minutes in Game 2 and 21 in Game 1.
With Nicolas Batum next to Marcus Morris, Kawhi Leonard, and Paul George, the Clipper offense showcases more speed and shooting ability.
Batum is being asked to attempt even more threes. He attempted six in both Games 3 and 4. He remains an efficient shooting option as he's converting half of his three-point attempts this series.
Morris also gladly takes a lot of threes especially in the corner. He converted 47.3 percent of his threes during the regular season. Kawhi and Paul George also averaged over 39 percent from deep during the regular season while attempting a high volume of them.
These guys make use of their shooting ability to force Gobert away from the basket and to force him to guard the perimeter.
By forcing him out to the perimeter, they nullify his strength, which is rim protection.
With strong spacing, the Clippers are averaging 2.3 more wide open three-point attempts in Games 3 and 4 than they averaged during the regular season.
L.A. is doing a lot of drive-and-kick, attacking Gobert when he is inside and then kicking the ball back out.
The Clippers are also taking advantage of having guys who can effectively pick-and-pop.
With the drive-and-kick and the pick-and-pop, L.A. exploits the slowness with which Gobert tries to recover back to the perimeter.
When the Clippers scored 118 points in Game 4, they actually finished right below their season average in three-point percentage because they are also able to have more success inside the arc because of how they have adjusted for Gobert.
Can Utah Adjust?
Utah cannot adjust because it relies so heavily on Gobert's defense.
On the perimeter, the Jazz lack quality defenders.
For example, they rely on Royce O'Neale to limit L.A.'s top scorer, Kawhi. O'Neale received all of two votes for NBA All-Defensive Second Team and Kawhi is taking advantage of his lack of quality.
In this round, O'Neale's defensive rating is 121.6 and Kawhi continues to heat up, exceeding 30 points in Games 3 and 4.
Georges Niang, Bojan Bogdanovic, and other guys are trying to stay in front of their man along the perimeter, but are struggling to do so, and they miss Gobert's clean-up presence behind them.
On the other side, L.A. simply has too many dangerous shooters -- I mentioned Batum, Morris, PG, and Kawhi, but there are even more guys who share their efficiency and effectivity behind the arc.
Terance Mann's Defense
While small-ball means giving up size, the Clippers still have sufficient length. With their length, they maintain a strong presence inside while they are disruptive along the perimeter and clog Utah's passing lanes.
Their disruptiveness is evident in the ball-pressure that they use their small-ball and concomitant ability to switch to amplify. Ball-pressure makes it harder for the Jazz offensive to find a rhythm and it makes life harder for Jazz point guard Donovan Mitchell.
After committing five turnovers in Game 4, Mitchell, himself less than healthy, misses having fellow ball-handler Mike Conley with him on the court to alleviate ball-handling responsibility. Conley is listed as 'questionable' for Game 5.
One key player for L.A.'s defense is Terance Mann. After more than quadrupling his minute total in Games 3 and 4, Mann is making a difference with his top-level 92.2 defensive rating.
In this series, Mann has played a total of 44 minutes with almost all of them coming in Games 3 and 4. In those 44 minutes, L.A. has outscored the Jazz by 42 points.
Total Verdict
L.A. is routinely scoring more after emphasizing small ball. The Clippers are taking away Gobert's strengths and exploiting Utah's dearth of quality perimeter defenders.
While Utah's offense is disrupted and often made stagnant by L.A.'s increased pressure, the Jazz are still amassing plenty of open and wide open three-point looks, which one must expect them to convert at a high rate given their high-ranking three-point percentage.
Best Bet: Parlay Clippers +3 at -114 & Over 222 at -110 at +258 odds with Bookmaker
