MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Shane McClanahan
Tampa Bay starter Shane McClanahan is experiencing his first year as a major league pitcher, but is already creating a strong impression.
So far, his ERA is 3.29. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is a bit better because he had one tough-luck outing in which he yielded a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) relative to the amount of soft contact that he induced.
Every pitcher that makes it to the majors has great stuff. What separates true professional-caliber pitchers from those who don’t stay in the majors is control.
I really like McClanahan because he has solid control, as evident in his 2.30 walks per nine innings.
He also has a superb first-pitch strike rate — at 70.4 percent — that creates statistically favorable situations for himself. A pitcher is more likely to succeed in an at-bat when he starts out with an 0-1 count.
I don’t mean to trivialize the quality of McClanahan’s pitching arsenal. McClanahan is finding a lot of success — in his first pitch and overall — because his stuff is uniquely good.
His primary pitches are a 4-seam fastball and a slider. He throws both pitches with 42- or 43-percent frequency.
McClanahan’s fastball averages an absurd 97.4 mph, which pits its velocity in the 97th-percentile, and which helps explain why opponents have mustered only two doubles and no other extra-base hits against this pitch.
His slider is even more effective. It’s still very hard, but also creates a change of pace relative to his uniquely hard fastball.
While he varies his fastball location, heat maps illustrate his ability to consistently find the edge of the strike zone with his slider, despite its above-average level of horizontal movement.
Location and movement are thus two additional reasons why batters struggle to hit this pitch. It yields a .160 BA an .300 slugging rate.
Yankee Slump
I already don’t like the Yankees because they haven’t seen this pitcher at all.
But they are struggling to hit anybody right now.
Excluding extra innings, they have combined for eight runs in the past five games.
Jordan Montgomery
Yankee starter Jordan Montgomery is repeatedly showing the vulnerability that McClanahan is not.
One reason for the former’s vulnerability is that his cutter is letting him down.
In terms of velocity, active spin percentage, and movement, this pitch has deteriorated relative to last season.
As a result of its deterioration, opponents are slugging .645 against it. This stat is important to note because he throws his cutter over 15 percent of the time.
He is also at a disadvantage because he is more of a known quantity.
The Rays have accrued 68 at-bats against him, a lot of which came in two starts this year.
Their slugging rate against Montgomery is .603, partly because of the four homers that they’ve hit off of him this season.
Look out especially for Manuel Margot, who is 4-for-9 with three doubles and a homer in his career against Montgomery.
Tampa Bay’s success against Montgomery will continue not just because they are familiar with him, but also because he is a lefty and because, since May especially, they own the seventh-highest OPS against lefties.
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Nick Pivetta
Things are about to go downhill for Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta because they typically do for him around this time of year.
Of all the months in a baseball season, his highest career FIP is in June.
One reason why I don’t like Pivetta is that he is still too reliant on his high-velocity (averaging 93-97 mph) 4-seam fastball.
Last year, his curveball was his second-favorite pitch and it yielded a .733 slugging rate.
While his curveball is currently yielding wildly better numbers, its xSLG (expected slugging rate) is .526, which means that he is allowing opponents to create strong contact with this pitch, such that this pitch should be yielding a poor slugging rate.
Pivetta vs. Astro Batters
Pivetta throws his 4-seam fastball with just over 50-percent frequency.
I especially don’t like Pivetta tonight because I expect him to struggle with his favorite pitch.
This season, the Astros rank eighth in slugging against the high-velo fastball. Their slugging rate against the 93-97 mph is especially high — .494 -- at home.
Moreover, they are enjoying strong form in general, having scored seven, 11, and five runs in their last three games.
Jose Altuve, for example, enters tonight with a four-game hitting streak.
Framber Valdez
Astro starter Framber Valdez is in a bad spot tonight as a lefty who primarily — more than half the time -- throws a sinker.
Boston is already strong against lefties — especially since May. The Red Sox are recently one of the two or three top teams against lefties as measured by OPS (on-base plus slugging) and slugging.
They also rank third in slugging against the sinker from lefties.
Moreover, they are in a positive situation tonight primarily with respect to their offensive potential.
This season, Boston is 5-2 after a two-game losing streak, scoring 11, six, 11, seven, and nine runs in those five wins.
Best Bet: Parlay Rays First-Half ML at +105 & Red Sox/Astros First-Half ML Over 4.5 at -120 at +276 odds with Bovada
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Shane McClanahan
Tampa Bay starter Shane McClanahan is experiencing his first year as a major league pitcher, but is already creating a strong impression.
So far, his ERA is 3.29. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) is a bit better because he had one tough-luck outing in which he yielded a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) relative to the amount of soft contact that he induced.
Every pitcher that makes it to the majors has great stuff. What separates true professional-caliber pitchers from those who don’t stay in the majors is control.
I really like McClanahan because he has solid control, as evident in his 2.30 walks per nine innings.
He also has a superb first-pitch strike rate — at 70.4 percent — that creates statistically favorable situations for himself. A pitcher is more likely to succeed in an at-bat when he starts out with an 0-1 count.
I don’t mean to trivialize the quality of McClanahan’s pitching arsenal. McClanahan is finding a lot of success — in his first pitch and overall — because his stuff is uniquely good.
His primary pitches are a 4-seam fastball and a slider. He throws both pitches with 42- or 43-percent frequency.
McClanahan’s fastball averages an absurd 97.4 mph, which pits its velocity in the 97th-percentile, and which helps explain why opponents have mustered only two doubles and no other extra-base hits against this pitch.
His slider is even more effective. It’s still very hard, but also creates a change of pace relative to his uniquely hard fastball.
While he varies his fastball location, heat maps illustrate his ability to consistently find the edge of the strike zone with his slider, despite its above-average level of horizontal movement.
Location and movement are thus two additional reasons why batters struggle to hit this pitch. It yields a .160 BA an .300 slugging rate.
Yankee Slump
I already don’t like the Yankees because they haven’t seen this pitcher at all.
But they are struggling to hit anybody right now.
Excluding extra innings, they have combined for eight runs in the past five games.
Jordan Montgomery
Yankee starter Jordan Montgomery is repeatedly showing the vulnerability that McClanahan is not.
One reason for the former’s vulnerability is that his cutter is letting him down.
In terms of velocity, active spin percentage, and movement, this pitch has deteriorated relative to last season.
As a result of its deterioration, opponents are slugging .645 against it. This stat is important to note because he throws his cutter over 15 percent of the time.
He is also at a disadvantage because he is more of a known quantity.
The Rays have accrued 68 at-bats against him, a lot of which came in two starts this year.
Their slugging rate against Montgomery is .603, partly because of the four homers that they’ve hit off of him this season.
Look out especially for Manuel Margot, who is 4-for-9 with three doubles and a homer in his career against Montgomery.
Tampa Bay’s success against Montgomery will continue not just because they are familiar with him, but also because he is a lefty and because, since May especially, they own the seventh-highest OPS against lefties.
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, June 2, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Nick Pivetta
Things are about to go downhill for Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta because they typically do for him around this time of year.
Of all the months in a baseball season, his highest career FIP is in June.
One reason why I don’t like Pivetta is that he is still too reliant on his high-velocity (averaging 93-97 mph) 4-seam fastball.
Last year, his curveball was his second-favorite pitch and it yielded a .733 slugging rate.
While his curveball is currently yielding wildly better numbers, its xSLG (expected slugging rate) is .526, which means that he is allowing opponents to create strong contact with this pitch, such that this pitch should be yielding a poor slugging rate.
Pivetta vs. Astro Batters
Pivetta throws his 4-seam fastball with just over 50-percent frequency.
I especially don’t like Pivetta tonight because I expect him to struggle with his favorite pitch.
This season, the Astros rank eighth in slugging against the high-velo fastball. Their slugging rate against the 93-97 mph is especially high — .494 -- at home.
Moreover, they are enjoying strong form in general, having scored seven, 11, and five runs in their last three games.
Jose Altuve, for example, enters tonight with a four-game hitting streak.
Framber Valdez
Astro starter Framber Valdez is in a bad spot tonight as a lefty who primarily — more than half the time -- throws a sinker.
Boston is already strong against lefties — especially since May. The Red Sox are recently one of the two or three top teams against lefties as measured by OPS (on-base plus slugging) and slugging.
They also rank third in slugging against the sinker from lefties.
Moreover, they are in a positive situation tonight primarily with respect to their offensive potential.
This season, Boston is 5-2 after a two-game losing streak, scoring 11, six, 11, seven, and nine runs in those five wins.
Best Bet: Parlay Rays First-Half ML at +105 & Red Sox/Astros First-Half ML Over 4.5 at -120 at +276 odds with Bovada
