MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, May 26, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
John Gant
Cardinal starter John Gant is experiencing strong form as he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last six starts.
Fans of sabermetrics might still not be too high on Gant given his 4.13 FIP.
I do often put stock into FIP myself. But it would be overly harsh to penalize Gant for his higher FIP.
FIP measures things that a pitcher has direct control over. This includes walks. Gant’s walk rate primarily explains why his FIP is so high.
In Gant’s case, though, he isn’t walking batters so much because he lacks control. Rather, he is very much a plate-nibbler, which helps him induce more soft contact with his pitches.
Heat maps indicate that he likes to concentrate the location of his pitches on the boundaries of the strike zone.
Gant does a lot of things right that more than make up for his higher walk rate.
When he does send a batter to first base, he is able to induce a double play by reliably keeping the ball on the ground. His ground ball rate is 51.8 percent so far this season.
In a similar vein, he has only allowed one home run this season.
In the rare instances that he does get himself in a jam by putting multiple guys on bases, his slider is a great put-away pitch that yields a whiff rate close to 50 percent.
Gant vs. White Sox Batters
I like Gant today because of his relative effectiveness against right-handed batters.
His walk rate is drastically lower against right-handed batters and he yields less hard contact against them.
Chicago’s lineup matches up poorly with Gant because it is so righty-heavy — the team’s top hitters like Yermin Mercedes, Jose Abreu, and Tim Anderson are all righties.
As a team, they are profitable to back overall. But they are yielding -3.7 units against righties because their sluggers are much stronger against opposite-handed pitchers.
Moreover, the White Sox are a bad day team. They have a losing record and are costing their backers 3.6 units in day games.
Their hitters are largely to blame for the team’s day struggles. During the day, the White Sox are slugging a paltry .344.
Carlos Rodon vs. Cardinal Batters
White Sox starter Carlos Rodon is coming off an immaculate start.
But in his two respective starts following his previous two zero-walk outings, he walked a combined total of eight batters and conceded five earned runs.
Those two starts show that he tends to drop off after a great performance.
He will struggle today against a Cardinal lineup that ranks fourth in slugging against lefties.
Given each lineup’s strengths and weaknesses, today's righty-lefty pitching match-up creates great value for St. Louis.
Because the Cardinals are big underdogs, we can take them on the run-line in order to get a free run.
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, May 26, 2021 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Johnny Cueto
After a couple of down seasons filled with higher ERAs and missed starts, Giant starter Johnny Cueto is back with vengeance.
Relative to last year, he has dropped his walk rate by 2.02 batters per nine innings and is similarly allowing a drastically lower rate of home runs.
In particular, his fastball is working better for him. He’s more confident with this pitch, throwing it more often in the strike zone.
Cueto can be more confident with his fastball because it’s generating a higher whiff rate while yielding a .208 lower slugging rate than it did last year.
Cueto In Chase Field
Cueto is in a great spot today because, in his career, he is 8-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 starts in Arizona’s Chase Field.
Several Diamondback hitters contribute to Cueto’s positive historical numbers against Arizona.
David Peralta, for example, is 1-for-15 (.067) in his career against Cueto.
Merrill Kelly vs. Giant Batters
Arizona starter Merrill Kelly does not share Cueto’s strong history against opposing batters.
Instead, Giant batters have accumulated a .320 BA and .500 slugging rate against Kelly.
Buster Posey, for example, is 4-for-9 (.444) with two doubles against Kelly.
While Giant hitters haven’t produced a very big data sample versus Kelly, they promise to improve against him because of how well they match up with him.
This season, San Francisco ranks sixth in slugging combined against Kelly’s three highest-frequency pitches from righties.
The San Francisco lineup helps give Cueto a pitching edge against the Diamondback starter.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals RL at -125 & Giants First-Half ML at -130 at +218 odds with Bovada
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, May 26, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
John Gant
Cardinal starter John Gant is experiencing strong form as he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last six starts.
Fans of sabermetrics might still not be too high on Gant given his 4.13 FIP.
I do often put stock into FIP myself. But it would be overly harsh to penalize Gant for his higher FIP.
FIP measures things that a pitcher has direct control over. This includes walks. Gant’s walk rate primarily explains why his FIP is so high.
In Gant’s case, though, he isn’t walking batters so much because he lacks control. Rather, he is very much a plate-nibbler, which helps him induce more soft contact with his pitches.
Heat maps indicate that he likes to concentrate the location of his pitches on the boundaries of the strike zone.
Gant does a lot of things right that more than make up for his higher walk rate.
When he does send a batter to first base, he is able to induce a double play by reliably keeping the ball on the ground. His ground ball rate is 51.8 percent so far this season.
In a similar vein, he has only allowed one home run this season.
In the rare instances that he does get himself in a jam by putting multiple guys on bases, his slider is a great put-away pitch that yields a whiff rate close to 50 percent.
Gant vs. White Sox Batters
I like Gant today because of his relative effectiveness against right-handed batters.
His walk rate is drastically lower against right-handed batters and he yields less hard contact against them.
Chicago’s lineup matches up poorly with Gant because it is so righty-heavy — the team’s top hitters like Yermin Mercedes, Jose Abreu, and Tim Anderson are all righties.
As a team, they are profitable to back overall. But they are yielding -3.7 units against righties because their sluggers are much stronger against opposite-handed pitchers.
Moreover, the White Sox are a bad day team. They have a losing record and are costing their backers 3.6 units in day games.
Their hitters are largely to blame for the team’s day struggles. During the day, the White Sox are slugging a paltry .344.
Carlos Rodon vs. Cardinal Batters
White Sox starter Carlos Rodon is coming off an immaculate start.
But in his two respective starts following his previous two zero-walk outings, he walked a combined total of eight batters and conceded five earned runs.
Those two starts show that he tends to drop off after a great performance.
He will struggle today against a Cardinal lineup that ranks fourth in slugging against lefties.
Given each lineup’s strengths and weaknesses, today's righty-lefty pitching match-up creates great value for St. Louis.
Because the Cardinals are big underdogs, we can take them on the run-line in order to get a free run.
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, May 26, 2021 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Johnny Cueto
After a couple of down seasons filled with higher ERAs and missed starts, Giant starter Johnny Cueto is back with vengeance.
Relative to last year, he has dropped his walk rate by 2.02 batters per nine innings and is similarly allowing a drastically lower rate of home runs.
In particular, his fastball is working better for him. He’s more confident with this pitch, throwing it more often in the strike zone.
Cueto can be more confident with his fastball because it’s generating a higher whiff rate while yielding a .208 lower slugging rate than it did last year.
Cueto In Chase Field
Cueto is in a great spot today because, in his career, he is 8-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 starts in Arizona’s Chase Field.
Several Diamondback hitters contribute to Cueto’s positive historical numbers against Arizona.
David Peralta, for example, is 1-for-15 (.067) in his career against Cueto.
Merrill Kelly vs. Giant Batters
Arizona starter Merrill Kelly does not share Cueto’s strong history against opposing batters.
Instead, Giant batters have accumulated a .320 BA and .500 slugging rate against Kelly.
Buster Posey, for example, is 4-for-9 (.444) with two doubles against Kelly.
While Giant hitters haven’t produced a very big data sample versus Kelly, they promise to improve against him because of how well they match up with him.
This season, San Francisco ranks sixth in slugging combined against Kelly’s three highest-frequency pitches from righties.
The San Francisco lineup helps give Cueto a pitching edge against the Diamondback starter.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals RL at -125 & Giants First-Half ML at -130 at +218 odds with Bovada
