MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, May 19, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Chi Chi Gonzalez
In the beginning of May, Rockie starter Chi Chi Gonzalez suffered two tough outings in a row.
Cardinal and Diamondback lineups that both rank top-three in slugging against lefties were responsible for these outings.
if there were any doubts about Gonzalez, he quieted them with a seven-inning shutout performance on May 13 against the Reds.
One can gather from his season that he is reliable against lineups that do not dominate left-handed pitching.
He doesn’t have a very strong change-up or curveball that he likes to attack opposite handed-batters with, although these are typical weapons against opposite-handed batters.
But he does have solid control, as evidenced by his low walk and opposing home run rates.
He excels at starting ahead of the count — and so creating statistically favorable situations for himself -- especially with his four-seam fastball, which he puts a tremendous degree of spin upon.
Gonzalez vs. Padre Batters
San Diego may seem to have improved against left-handed pitching based upon the fact that Cardinal southpaw Kwang Hyun Kim couldn’t last four innings against them on the last rendition of Sunday Night Baseball.
But the Padres weren’t so much producing hits against Kim as that they benefitted from Kim’s total loss of command, his inability to throw strikes and avoid walks.
The Padres match up poorly with Gonzalez because they rank 28th in slugging against lefties.
Big-named right-handed Manny Machado also struggles against Gonzalez, going 1-for-6 (.167) against him in his career so far.
Joe Musgrove
Since he left Pittsburgh and became a Padre, starting pitcher Joe Musgrove has been enjoying the best season of his career as measured by stats like ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Musgrove’s almost six-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio is largely bolstered by his slider and curveball on the one hand and his strong command on the other.
His slider and curveball both enjoy a tremendous amount of movement relative to other pitchers’ sliders and curveballs, helping them be reliable put-away pitches with high whiff rates.
Opponents also rarely hit either pitch, as each one yields a BA under .120.
In an anyhow limited data sample, Colorado hitters have accrued good numbers against Musgrove.
However, these numbers derive from the time before Musgrove became a new and improved pitcher, as a Padre. It is also a lot easier to produce good numbers against any pitcher in hitters-friendly Coors Field in Denver.
I like Musgrove tonight because the Rockies rank 27th in slugging against his pitches from righties. This stat includes the Rockies hitting in Coors Field. Petco Park is vastly friendlier for pitchers.
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, May 19, 2021 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Fading Kevin Gausman
To his credit, Giant starter Kevin Gausman has only suffered one bad outing so far this season.
But that bad outing came against the Reds, who knocked him for five runs over the course of six innings.
I think the Reds can improve upon that hitting performance tonight because their ballpark, the Great American, has established itself as a house of horrors for Gausman.
In his career, Gausman is 0-3 with an 8.00 ERA in Cincinnati.
Red Batters vs. Gausman
Three different Red batters own a slugging rate of over .700 in at least five career at-bats against Gausman.
These three are: Mike Moustakas, Tucker Barnhart, and Nick Castellanos.
Jesse Winker does not have good numbers against Gausman, but is enjoying by far the best season of his career in terms of both BA and slugging rate.
Eugenio Suarez, likewise showing strong form, is another example of a Red batter who looks promising tonight.
Wade Miley vs. Giant Batters
Red starter Wade Miley has seen much of Giant batters — 121 at-bats, to be exact.
Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, and Evan Longoria all slug at least .550 against Miley in at least 10 at-bats.
Giant batters this season, as a whole, match up well with Miley because they rank second in slugging .571 against Miley’s favorite pitches — the fastball and change-up, which combine to make up 80.4 percent of his arsenal — from lefties.
Parlay Verdict
Colorado and Padre starters will be locked in a pitcher’s duel where Padre batters struggle against another lefty while Rockie batters fail to match up well against newly improved Musgrove.
Red and Giant starters, in contrast, will suffer against lineups that have solid numbers against them. Gausman suffers, in particular, in Cincinnati.
Best Bet: Parlay Rockies/Padres First-Half Under 4 at -115 & Giants/Reds First-Half Over 4.5 at -110 at +257 odds with Bovada
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, May 19, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park in San Diego
Chi Chi Gonzalez
In the beginning of May, Rockie starter Chi Chi Gonzalez suffered two tough outings in a row.
Cardinal and Diamondback lineups that both rank top-three in slugging against lefties were responsible for these outings.
if there were any doubts about Gonzalez, he quieted them with a seven-inning shutout performance on May 13 against the Reds.
One can gather from his season that he is reliable against lineups that do not dominate left-handed pitching.
He doesn’t have a very strong change-up or curveball that he likes to attack opposite handed-batters with, although these are typical weapons against opposite-handed batters.
But he does have solid control, as evidenced by his low walk and opposing home run rates.
He excels at starting ahead of the count — and so creating statistically favorable situations for himself -- especially with his four-seam fastball, which he puts a tremendous degree of spin upon.
Gonzalez vs. Padre Batters
San Diego may seem to have improved against left-handed pitching based upon the fact that Cardinal southpaw Kwang Hyun Kim couldn’t last four innings against them on the last rendition of Sunday Night Baseball.
But the Padres weren’t so much producing hits against Kim as that they benefitted from Kim’s total loss of command, his inability to throw strikes and avoid walks.
The Padres match up poorly with Gonzalez because they rank 28th in slugging against lefties.
Big-named right-handed Manny Machado also struggles against Gonzalez, going 1-for-6 (.167) against him in his career so far.
Joe Musgrove
Since he left Pittsburgh and became a Padre, starting pitcher Joe Musgrove has been enjoying the best season of his career as measured by stats like ERA and FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Musgrove’s almost six-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio is largely bolstered by his slider and curveball on the one hand and his strong command on the other.
His slider and curveball both enjoy a tremendous amount of movement relative to other pitchers’ sliders and curveballs, helping them be reliable put-away pitches with high whiff rates.
Opponents also rarely hit either pitch, as each one yields a BA under .120.
In an anyhow limited data sample, Colorado hitters have accrued good numbers against Musgrove.
However, these numbers derive from the time before Musgrove became a new and improved pitcher, as a Padre. It is also a lot easier to produce good numbers against any pitcher in hitters-friendly Coors Field in Denver.
I like Musgrove tonight because the Rockies rank 27th in slugging against his pitches from righties. This stat includes the Rockies hitting in Coors Field. Petco Park is vastly friendlier for pitchers.
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, May 19, 2021 at 6:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati
Fading Kevin Gausman
To his credit, Giant starter Kevin Gausman has only suffered one bad outing so far this season.
But that bad outing came against the Reds, who knocked him for five runs over the course of six innings.
I think the Reds can improve upon that hitting performance tonight because their ballpark, the Great American, has established itself as a house of horrors for Gausman.
In his career, Gausman is 0-3 with an 8.00 ERA in Cincinnati.
Red Batters vs. Gausman
Three different Red batters own a slugging rate of over .700 in at least five career at-bats against Gausman.
These three are: Mike Moustakas, Tucker Barnhart, and Nick Castellanos.
Jesse Winker does not have good numbers against Gausman, but is enjoying by far the best season of his career in terms of both BA and slugging rate.
Eugenio Suarez, likewise showing strong form, is another example of a Red batter who looks promising tonight.
Wade Miley vs. Giant Batters
Red starter Wade Miley has seen much of Giant batters — 121 at-bats, to be exact.
Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, and Evan Longoria all slug at least .550 against Miley in at least 10 at-bats.
Giant batters this season, as a whole, match up well with Miley because they rank second in slugging .571 against Miley’s favorite pitches — the fastball and change-up, which combine to make up 80.4 percent of his arsenal — from lefties.
Parlay Verdict
Colorado and Padre starters will be locked in a pitcher’s duel where Padre batters struggle against another lefty while Rockie batters fail to match up well against newly improved Musgrove.
Red and Giant starters, in contrast, will suffer against lineups that have solid numbers against them. Gausman suffers, in particular, in Cincinnati.
Best Bet: Parlay Rockies/Padres First-Half Under 4 at -115 & Giants/Reds First-Half Over 4.5 at -110 at +257 odds with Bovada
