-wednesday nba-

broadwayjoe

broadwayjoe

May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
will straighten out the record later today...dropped a couple more units yesterday

my first and probably only 10 unit play of the regular season. very little doubt that the cavs will lose this game straight up. more thoughts later, but this is about as relaxed of a spot i've seen the cavs in this year. will add a couple more later as well, likely 3 or more out of the clippers, thunder, mavs, wolves, and warriors. will also be adding some moneylines:


10 units - Knicks +6



:cheers:
 
gl joe...lean Knickers some as well

lean GSW as well.....not sold on Suns

and BIGSHOT and KMART maybe out...like OKie as well
 
back to the cavs---i'll start off with 118-82. that was the score the last time these teams met and cleveland shoved it in their nose every bit of the way---lebron even said after the game when asked if the new york thing was a distraction "to who, us? might be a distraction to new york, but we're good"...a little extra slap in the face for them to chew on. also, they crushed them a week before then too. they have the lakers next in a revenge spot and one of the biggest home games of the year. kind of like when they kicked the shit out chicago a few times and then played them as favs close to this range in chicago with a revenge spot the next night hosting new orleans. the cavs are only winning this road 2nd leg of a b2b by an average of 5 ppg, and they're 6 pt favs here to a team with double revenge and playing A LOT better than when they got crushed by them earlier. i don't buy into all of the msg/lebron/kobe hokus pokus bullshit. lebron doesnt give a fuck about this game compared to that lakers game. and with Z coming back, this team has disrupted its rhythm a little bit. they looked completely out of sync after the 1Q yesterday, and if toronto wasn't so pathetically horrible, they would have cut the lead even further than they did and maybe even taken the lead after getting blown out initially from good outside shooting, which has many times been the cavs' downfall and was in parts of the last 3 quarters of play last night---too many outside shot attempts. i know toronto gives you plenty of space outside, but that's not when the cavs are at their best usually. they can't afford to have a drought like they did last night when they play the knicks on the road, because the knicks can score. in fact, this is the pace that killed them in previous years---the suns had a lot of success against us. that has changed with the way the cavs' offense has played, but with a little thing like Z coming back throwing off the calibration at certain times, and the laziness of the cavs at times, and how they play in a spot like this situationally, i'll be very surprised if they come out on top. they no longer have to worry about the magic, they are thinking about the lakers and two very winnable games after that to close out before the break, and west coming back soon. there's the new york distraction, the mo williams all-star distraction, i'm sure they were all out partying thinking they could walk all over this team again---i really don't think it could be much worse of a spot situationally---they are relaxed in spot in which they have historically sucked against a team with double revenge in hostile environment off a tough loss where they let kobe score 61 with a huge revenge game on deck. thanks for the money.
 
agree on cavs..think they have trouble covering..either they win in the last 4 mins or they blow a big lead and win by a few
 
yea..this game worries me a bit for the SU win..obviously they can win by 20 but think they struggle...one thing that maybe going our way with lebron is hopefully gonna try and steal some of kobes thunder,the thing lebron really doesnt care about that kind of stuff
 
umm, do you have the password to my sportsbook account because that's my card. :) more than any other night I've ever wished you good luck I sincerely mean it tonight. :cheers:
 
well that's the best thing i've heard all day, jeff---what's with this not starting your own thread business lately...it's throwing me off here...
 
just been a bit busy this month. decided to just toss out thoughts for a couple of weeks until after the all star game. i'm all caught up, but leaving again this weekend so I'll be back at it after the break.
 
health on Dallas. Otherwise :cheers:

you or JP wanna talk me into Minnesota? I know they're good and Atlanta is minus JJ. I don't like them off a long game win or Atlanta off a loss a 3 days rest
 
Why I'm on Minny: (sorry about the hijack broadway)

To often we as gamblers take in the first month of any given season and wrap out minds around a teams performance for that month. It's very hard for us to go away from our initial reaction about said team. It's why you never see a shitty team start the season 12-2 ATS but you will see it happen during the middle of the season. Take the Thunder for example. If they started out the season covering like they have for the last two months all value would be immediately sucked out of them in two weeks. They started out 5-8 ATS over the first 3 weeks including covering a 12.5 point spread, a 14 point spread, and an 11.5 point spread. Pretty easy for everyone to assume that it's the same old Thunder. We all make up our mind that they still suck and categorize them that way. Hard to go away from your initial thought on something like this. From there they went on to cover 22 of 28 games. If they had started out the season like that they would have immediately adjusted their spreads because our assumptions would have been that they are a competitive team and we would have bet in that manner. Where the hell am I going with all this?

The Twolves are the Thunder right now. Not saying they are equal on the playing field. Just that we have classified them as a team that sucks and one that we shouldn't lay points with. They did start the season 9-17 ATS and after losing 11 of 14 ATS you pretty much emptied the ship of people willing to bet them. Well since 12/23/08 they've gone 15-5 ATS with their losses being to the Lakers , Pistons, Bulls, Heat, and Magic. Only worry is that all of those games were @home.

The Hawks meanwhile are the direct opposite of the Wolves. They've gone 5-11 ATS but we still remember them being the team that has had great ATS success to start the season and the team that beat CLE @home and took Boston to the buzzer @BOS. Love this team, but they are in a downswing. Once they get JJ, Marvin, and Horford all back in sync they'll make for a great bet before the lines get adjusted again. They have very winnable games before the ASG and it's more important for them to get healthy right now and get back into the flow than anything else.

Just two teams going in different directions at the moment and the fact that the books were forced to open the Hawks as a favorite is the writing on the wall. Sorry about the long rant.
 
JPicks said:
Why I'm on Minny: (sorry about the hijack broadway)

To often we as gamblers take in the first month of any given season and wrap out minds around a teams performance for that month. It's very hard for us to go away from our initial reaction about said team. It's why you never see a shitty team start the season 12-2 ATS but you will see it happen during the middle of the season. Take the Thunder for example. If they started out the season covering like they have for the last two months all value would be immediately sucked out of them in two weeks. They started out 5-8 ATS over the first 3 weeks including covering a 12.5 point spread, a 14 point spread, and an 11.5 point spread. Pretty easy for everyone to assume that it's the same old Thunder. We all make up our mind that they still suck and categorize them that way. Hard to go away from your initial thought on something like this. From there they went on to cover 22 of 28 games. If they had started out the season like that they would have immediately adjusted their spreads because our assumptions would have been that they are a competitive team and we would have bet in that manner. Where the hell am I going with all this?

The Twolves are the Thunder right now. Not saying they are equal on the playing field. Just that we have classified them as a team that sucks and one that we shouldn't lay points with. They did start the season 9-17 ATS and after losing 11 of 14 ATS you pretty much emptied the ship of people willing to bet them. Well since 12/23/08 they've gone 15-5 ATS with their losses being to the Lakers , Pistons, Bulls, Heat, and Magic. Only worry is that all of those games were @home.

The Hawks meanwhile are the direct opposite of the Wolves. They've gone 5-11 ATS but we still remember them being the team that has had great ATS success to start the season and the team that beat CLE @home and took Boston to the buzzer @BOS. Love this team, but they are in a downswing. Once they get JJ, Marvin, and Horford all back in sync they'll make for a great bet before the lines get adjusted again. They have very winnable games before the ASG and it's more important for them to get healthy right now and get back into the flow than anything else.

Just two teams going in different directions at the moment and the fact that the books were forced to open the Hawks as a favorite is the writing on the wall. Sorry about the long rant.
Click to expand...

:shake: very helpful

on a side note: lebron with 11 in the 1st 6 minutes, looks like he goin for 62
 
hahahaha.well not exactly how i pictured it but the big one cashed, which was much needed. thunder is a prime example of why you can't fuck around as the line keeps dropping and dropping...instead of getting a 5.5 i waited until the line got so low i didn't think it was worth layin the juice for the points and i was wrong. then i had to sweat out the mavs. phew...rough night and i'm still sweating some college stuff. go warriors
 
JPicks said:
Why I'm on Minny: (sorry about the hijack broadway)

To often we as gamblers take in the first month of any given season and wrap out minds around a teams performance for that month. It's very hard for us to go away from our initial reaction about said team. It's why you never see a shitty team start the season 12-2 ATS but you will see it happen during the middle of the season. Take the Thunder for example. If they started out the season covering like they have for the last two months all value would be immediately sucked out of them in two weeks. They started out 5-8 ATS over the first 3 weeks including covering a 12.5 point spread, a 14 point spread, and an 11.5 point spread. Pretty easy for everyone to assume that it's the same old Thunder. We all make up our mind that they still suck and categorize them that way. Hard to go away from your initial thought on something like this. From there they went on to cover 22 of 28 games. If they had started out the season like that they would have immediately adjusted their spreads because our assumptions would have been that they are a competitive team and we would have bet in that manner. Where the hell am I going with all this?

The Twolves are the Thunder right now. Not saying they are equal on the playing field. Just that we have classified them as a team that sucks and one that we shouldn't lay points with. They did start the season 9-17 ATS and after losing 11 of 14 ATS you pretty much emptied the ship of people willing to bet them. Well since 12/23/08 they've gone 15-5 ATS with their losses being to the Lakers , Pistons, Bulls, Heat, and Magic. Only worry is that all of those games were @home.

The Hawks meanwhile are the direct opposite of the Wolves. They've gone 5-11 ATS but we still remember them being the team that has had great ATS success to start the season and the team that beat CLE @home and took Boston to the buzzer @BOS. Love this team, but they are in a downswing. Once they get JJ, Marvin, and Horford all back in sync they'll make for a great bet before the lines get adjusted again. They have very winnable games before the ASG and it's more important for them to get healthy right now and get back into the flow than anything else.

Just two teams going in different directions at the moment and the fact that the books were forced to open the Hawks as a favorite is the writing on the wall. Sorry about the long rant.
Click to expand...

or not. :36_11_6:

Congrats on the big one man.
 
still think the wolves will be a good bet in feb jpicks...thanks man.

thanks sf...damn, i didn't see it---was tied up with college hoops but i saw 100-89 with a lil over a minute i believe and counted it as a win then checked the warriors score and it was 100-97 and i almost shit myself. crazy little fury of points they had at the end i guess. tough loss for you---at least you had the one unit at +5 i guess.
 
will start a separate thread with the updated record, but playing both the dogs with the points and mls tomorrow night


actually locked them both in at +5.5
 
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