Wednesday NBA, 10-18-17...

brewers7

Pretty much a regular
NBA Preview: The Indiana Pacers host the Brooklyn Nets in a battle of two teams with revamped starting lineups from a season ago.

Brooklyn Nets (0-0) at Indiana Pacers (0-0), Wednesday, 7 p.m. EST

Line: Pacers -3.5. Total 214.

Neither the Pacers nor the Nets are expected to get close to a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference this season. However, one of these teams has to win this game. More importantly, one of these teams has to cover the spread, too.

The Pacers were a playoff team last year. Indiana gave the Cavaliers all they could handle in the first round. The Pacers gave Cleveland their toughest playoff series before the finals. Sure, Indiana got swept, but they lost all four games by 6 points or less.

Paul George was the reason the Pacers competed fiercely with Cleveland. He is now in Oklahoma City this season. So Victor Oladipo (from OKC), Darren Collison (from Sacramento) and Bojan Bogdanovich (from Brooklyn) will have to pick up the slack.

Brooklyn will be rebuilding for a while. They gave away their top picks for 2017-18 and 2018-19 in trades and are hoping to rebuild around D’Angelo Russell.

Both teams were 3-1 in the preseason. However, this line does not make a whole lot of sense to me. The Pacers win total for the season is projected at 30.5, while the Nets win total is projected at 21 wins for this season.

So why are the Pacers only 3.5-point chalk at home? The line opened at 5 and has slid to 3.5, yet the public is on Indiana. The Pacers defeated better competition in the preseason. It just looks too easy to take the Pacers here. Therefore, I will go the other way and take Brooklyn and the points.

NBA Fantasy Information

A lot of cheap players for both teams. We are going to have to watch the minutes of all the players and see who gets the most time off the bench.

Players to watch:

D’Angelo Russell (Nets), SG, $6600. Russell may get a chance to blossom now that he is away from the Lakers. The expectations were very high in Los Angeles. He is not a big bargain at that price, but he did score more than 30 fantasy points per game (PPG) in three of the four preseason games he played.

Lance Stephenson (Pacers), SG, $3300. Stephenson played well in the preseason, scoring at least 20 fantasy PPG in all three games he played. He scored 37.2 fantasy points against Milwaukee. If he gets 24 to 28 minutes off the bench and produces like he did in the preseason, then he will be a steal at that price.



Miami Heat (0-0) at Orlando Magic (0-0), Wednesday, 7 p.m. EST

Line: Heat -3.5. Total 206.

Miami started the 2016-17 season 11-30. They made an amazing run and finished the season going 30-11. The Heat finished .500 and were tied with the Chicago Bulls for the final playoff berth. However, the Bulls had the tiebreaker and secured the #8 seed for the postseason.

The Heat plan to start faster and not have their playoffs hopes come down to the final day of the regular season. The Heat re-signed Dion Waiters and James Johnson and added free agent Kelly Olynyk from the Celtics. With starters Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside and Josh Richardson back, Miami should be in the playoffs this year.

I am a little surprised that the Heat are projected to win 40 games in a weak Eastern Conference. Miami should win 41 to 44 games this season.

Orlando is also projected to win fewer games than last year. The Magic won 29 last season and are projected to win 26 this season. However, I cannot disagree much with that projection. The Magic have a good young nucleus and all five starters at the end of the 2016-17 season are back.

Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, Elfrid Payton, Terrence Ross and Nikola Vucevic will be the starting five again. They played 409 minutes and 55 seconds together to close out the season. They have added Jonathon Simmons (from San Antonio) and underrated Marreese Speights (from the Clippers) to solidify their bench.

Orlando beat the Heat in three of their four meetings last season. Three of those games went over the Vegas total, while the one under was only under the total by a single point. Orlando defeated Miami 93-90 in the preseason.

NBA Fantasy Information
A lot of cheap players for both teams. We are going to have to watch the minutes of all the players and see who gets the most time off the bench.

Players to watch:

Aaron Gordon (Magic), PF, $6300. Gordon is a stud and his last four preseason games were all over 25 fantasy points. He only played starter’s minutes in one of those four games.

Tyler Johnson (Heat), PG, $4500. Johnson comes off the bench but he can score points in a hurry. He had a couple of preseason games over 25 fantasy points. Pick your spots with him though. Early in the season, I see better value options at PG with the bigger boards.

NBA Preview: The San Antonio Spurs realize they may be coming out of the gate slower than usual this season.



Minnesota Timberwolves (0-0) at San Antonio Spurs (0-0), Wednesday, 9:30 p.m. EST

Line: Spurs -2. Total 205.5.

With Kawhi Leonard out indefinitely and no timetable for a return due to a right quad, the Spurs know the early part of the 2017-18 may be a struggle. Manu Ginobili said that the team’s expectations have been lowered to start this season. The Spurs will ease into the season and hope to finish strong.

While the Spurs are dealing with lowered expectations to start the season, the Timberwolves are coming into the season with high hopes. The Vegas prognosticators project 46 wins for Minnesota this season.

Joining Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Wiggins in Minnesota’s starting lineup this season are Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson from the Bulls and Jeff Teague from the Pacers. The Timberwolves also picked up

Jamal Crawford from the Clippers.

This is an opening night statement game for Minnesota to let the Spurs and the rest of the league know that the Timberwolves are going to be a team to deal with this season.

NBA Fantasy Information

Best values: Dejounte Murray (Spurs), PG, $3800. Murray played well in the preseason and is a steal for this price. He will be a starter and get a lot of minutes. Tony Parker will not be back until December at the earliest.

Rudy Yag (Spurs), SF, $5500. Yag will split the minutes with Ryan Anderson in the absence of Leonard. Yag will come off the bench for now. He could be the #1 scoring option off the bench.

LaMarcus Aldridge (Spurs), PF, $7000, Aldridge had a monster preseason and was rewarded with a 3-year $72 million contract on Monday.

Taj Gibson (Timberwolves), PF, $4400. Gibson was solid in the preseason and could be a fantasy play if you are down to your last pick at PF and have about $4500 left to spend.



Denver Nuggets (0-0) at Utah Jazz (0-0), Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EST

Line: Jazz -3. Total 204.5.

This is an interesting matchup. The Vegas prognosticators have set the over/under for wins for Denver at 41.5 games and at 36 games for Utah this season.

The Jazz won 51 games last year and beat the Clippers in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs. However, they lost Gordon Hayward to Boston and George Hill to Sacramento during the offseason. That hurts in a rough and tumble Western Conference. The Jazz added Ricky Rubio, but the Vegas forecasters apparently are not impressed.

The Nuggets had 40 wins last year and finished one game out of the playoffs behind the Portland Trail Blazers. Denver has a very young and athletic. The Nuggets also added veteran Paul Milsap from Atlanta for this season.

Utah finished 5-0 in the preseason, but that was very deceiving. The Jazz beat two International teams, the Phoenix Suns twice and Lorenzo Ball-less Los Angeles Lakers team. Denver finished 3-2 and sure, they beat the Lakers twice (with Ball), but they also beat Golden State at Oracle Arena before losing at San Antonio and then at home against Oklahoma City.

The Nuggets would seem to be more battle tested coming into the regular season. Denver is a deeper squad, so it is just a matter of whether Mike Malone can find the right combinations on the floor as he has a lot talent to mix and match.

NBA Fantasy Information

Player to watch: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), C, $8700. Not a lot of value with that price. Last year the offense ran through Jokic when he was on the floor. After Jusuf Nurkic got traded to Portland, Jokic got more minutes and put up some big fantasy numbers. However, I wonder if some of the offense will be run through Milsap at times now that he is on the team. I would lay off Jokic the first couple of games and see how he fares with Milsap in the lineup. Jokic’s assists and rebounds were down in the preseason.

Best values: Joe Ingles (Jazz), SF, $3800. A lot of value here potentially as he will start for Utah. However, I would wait a game or two to see how many minutes he gets.

Will Barton, (Nuggets), SG, $4800. Barton reminds me of the “Microwave”, Vinnie Johnson, formerly of the Detroit Pistons from the late 1980’s. Barton can score points in bunches. Not just “regular” points, but fantasy points, too. He comes off the bench, but when he is hot, Malone leaves him for starter’s minutes.

Rodney Hood, (Jazz), SG, $4500. Hood should get a lot more shots and be a bigger part of Utah’s offense with the departure of Haywood. A lot of value at that price to start the season.



Note: It is now 5:47 p.m. EST and I will have my NBA selections within the hour.
 
Edit: 6:36 p.m. EST: My selections. Going to be conservative with bets the first week, especially with totals. I will be stalking for 2H bets tonight. If I have an official bet, I will post it. Would love to post some reasoning for some of these selections on the sides, but ran out of time. I will do better as the season goes. I do not have much confidence at all right now on the totals. That will change as the season progresses.

Sides: (1) Den, (2) Bkn, (3) Phi, (4) Dal, (5) Min, (6) Pho, (7) NO, (8) Mil, (9) Det, (10) Orl, (11) Sac

Totals: (1) Bkn ov, (2) Phi ov, (3) Pho ov, (4) Min ov, (5) Det un, (6) Orl un, (7) NO un, (8) Mil un, (9) Den ov, (10) Sac un, (11) Dal un
 
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