3 Player Props August 2: Cardinals Find Their Bats Today
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, August 2, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Who Starts for Seattle?
Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners today.
Gilbert enters today's game in strong form: he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
His command has been excellent: he is limiting walks and starting batter off with a strike at a high rate.
Gilbert's Arsenal
Gilbert throws a fastball, slider, curveball, and split finger.
With its good velocity, his fastball is more than serviceable.
But his other pitches are more effective: opponents slug .373 against his slider, .390 against his curveball, and .242 against his split finger.
They struggle especially with the ways in which he plays his pitches off each other.
Consider his 95 mph fastball and his 80 mph curveball.
Given their velocity differential, it is difficult for batters to proceed from dealing with one pitch to dealing with the other.
The change of pace keeps them off-balance.
Plus, Gilbert likes to elevate his fastball and bury his curveball.
The change in location also changes the batter's eye level.
Gilbert's Outlook
Gilbert's outlook is positive today because he has sustained his strong form even against teams that match up well with him.
Examples of such teams include the Diamondbacks and Giants. Boston will be no more difficult.
Best Bet: Logan Gilbert under 2.5 earned runs at +100 with BetOnline
Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, August 2, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Who Starts for the Twins?
Joe Ryan starts for Minnesota today.
Ryan enters tonight's game in poor form.
He has yielded an ERA over 5.00 in four straight starts.
Most recently, he's allowed a combined total of eight runs in his past two starts.
His form is particularly worrisome because he's struggling against unimpressive competition.
For example, two starts ago, the White Sox accrued four runs against him, although they rank 25th in runs per game.
Among other things, though, Ryan is handing out gifts.
He's allowed at least one home run in his last six starts.
During this six-start stretch, he's allowed a combined total of 13 home runs.
Ryan's Arsenal
Ryan throws a fastball, split finger, sweeper, and slider.
One should expect Ryan to struggle given the low quality of his pitches.
In particular, he relies very heavily on a fastball that is deeply problematic.
This pitch places in the 31st percentile in velocity and in the 37th percentile in spin.
These numbers suggest that it is relatively easy for batters to keep up with and track the location of his fastball.
Cardinals Lineup
While the Cardinals have scored little lately, they've dealt with difficult starters or starters in good form.
Ryan will be a soft test for them.
Best Bet: Joe Ryan over 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Wednesday, August 2, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park in Miami
Who Starts for Miami?
Braxton Garrett starts for the Marlins today.
Garrett is coming off a rare good start.
He got to face the lowly Tigers.
Before that start, he had allowed three earned runs or more in four straight starts while failing to complete six innings in any of those starts.
Garrett's Arsenal
Garrett throws a sinker, slider, cutter, curveball, changeup, and fastball.
While Garrett throws a lot of pitches, quantity is a poor substitute for quality.
His pitches lack quality.
For example, his fastball places in the 35th percentile in spin rate and in the sixth percentile in velocity.
Moreover, his curveball places in the ninth percentile in spin rate.
The low quality of his arsenal explains how he is likely to struggle against strong competition, although he might perform well against the likes of Detroit.
Philadelphia's Lineup
Whereas the Tigers rank 28th in runs per game, the Phillies rank 11 spots higher in the category, which positions them around the teams that have lately succeeded against Garrett.
More importantly, the Phillies match up well against Garrett.
They rank eighth in slugging .443 against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Braxton Garrett over 2.5 earned runs at -145 with BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, August 2, 2023 at 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
- Logan Gilbert enjoys strong form
- Gilbert plays his pitches effectively off each other
- Boston poses no tougher challenge than that which Gilbert has mastered in his most recent starts
Who Starts for Seattle?
Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners today.
Gilbert enters today's game in strong form: he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
His command has been excellent: he is limiting walks and starting batter off with a strike at a high rate.
Gilbert's Arsenal
Gilbert throws a fastball, slider, curveball, and split finger.
With its good velocity, his fastball is more than serviceable.
But his other pitches are more effective: opponents slug .373 against his slider, .390 against his curveball, and .242 against his split finger.
They struggle especially with the ways in which he plays his pitches off each other.
Consider his 95 mph fastball and his 80 mph curveball.
Given their velocity differential, it is difficult for batters to proceed from dealing with one pitch to dealing with the other.
The change of pace keeps them off-balance.
Plus, Gilbert likes to elevate his fastball and bury his curveball.
The change in location also changes the batter's eye level.
Gilbert's Outlook
Gilbert's outlook is positive today because he has sustained his strong form even against teams that match up well with him.
Examples of such teams include the Diamondbacks and Giants. Boston will be no more difficult.
Best Bet: Logan Gilbert under 2.5 earned runs at +100 with BetOnline
Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, August 2, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
- Joe Ryan suffers awful form
- Among other problems, Ryan is allowing a ton of home runs.
- Due to score more, the Cards finally get a softer test
Who Starts for the Twins?
Joe Ryan starts for Minnesota today.
Ryan enters tonight's game in poor form.
He has yielded an ERA over 5.00 in four straight starts.
Most recently, he's allowed a combined total of eight runs in his past two starts.
His form is particularly worrisome because he's struggling against unimpressive competition.
For example, two starts ago, the White Sox accrued four runs against him, although they rank 25th in runs per game.
Among other things, though, Ryan is handing out gifts.
He's allowed at least one home run in his last six starts.
During this six-start stretch, he's allowed a combined total of 13 home runs.
Ryan's Arsenal
Ryan throws a fastball, split finger, sweeper, and slider.
One should expect Ryan to struggle given the low quality of his pitches.
In particular, he relies very heavily on a fastball that is deeply problematic.
This pitch places in the 31st percentile in velocity and in the 37th percentile in spin.
These numbers suggest that it is relatively easy for batters to keep up with and track the location of his fastball.
Cardinals Lineup
While the Cardinals have scored little lately, they've dealt with difficult starters or starters in good form.
Ryan will be a soft test for them.
Best Bet: Joe Ryan over 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Wednesday, August 2, 2023 at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park in Miami
- Braxton Garrett's arsenal lacks quality
- Garrett reliably struggles against decent or more challenging lineups
- The Phillies match up well against Garrett
Who Starts for Miami?
Braxton Garrett starts for the Marlins today.
Garrett is coming off a rare good start.
He got to face the lowly Tigers.
Before that start, he had allowed three earned runs or more in four straight starts while failing to complete six innings in any of those starts.
Garrett's Arsenal
Garrett throws a sinker, slider, cutter, curveball, changeup, and fastball.
While Garrett throws a lot of pitches, quantity is a poor substitute for quality.
His pitches lack quality.
For example, his fastball places in the 35th percentile in spin rate and in the sixth percentile in velocity.
Moreover, his curveball places in the ninth percentile in spin rate.
The low quality of his arsenal explains how he is likely to struggle against strong competition, although he might perform well against the likes of Detroit.
Philadelphia's Lineup
Whereas the Tigers rank 28th in runs per game, the Phillies rank 11 spots higher in the category, which positions them around the teams that have lately succeeded against Garrett.
More importantly, the Phillies match up well against Garrett.
They rank eighth in slugging .443 against his pitches from lefties.
Best Bet: Braxton Garrett over 2.5 earned runs at -145 with BetOnline
