3 Player Props July 5: Cincinnati's Starting Pitching to Triumph in Washington
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Who Starts for the Reds?
Graham Ashcraft starts for the Reds.
Ashcraft is coming off a strong performance: he limited San Diego to one run in 6.2 innings.
This start is important because, in it, he finally looked again like the pitcher who yielded a 2.10 ERA in April.
The April version of Ashcraft did a great job of inducing ground balls and minimizing hard contact.
Likewise, Ashcraft in his last start induced ground balls at a 62.5-percent rate and reduced his season average of hard contact allowed.
The similarities in terms of performance between Ashcraft in his last start and Ashcraft in the beginning of the season are critical because, in that month of April, he effectively battled tough teams like Texas.
His ability to resemble his April version of himself illustrates his ability to handle tough competition, competition that is even much tougher than that which he'll encounter today.
Matchup Deep Dive
Ashcraft throws mostly a cutter and slider, but he also throws a sinker.
His pitches boast an excellent mixture of both velocity and spin, which suggests that batters have a relatively difficult time keeping up with and tracking the location of his pitches.
This difficulty is amplified by the strong horizontal movement of his sinker and the extremely strong horizontal movement of his slider.
Ashcraft's high-quality pitches will overwhelm a low-quality lineup that ranks 26th in runs per game.
Plus, the Nationals match up poorly against him.
They rank 20th in slugging .393 against his pitches from righties.
This drops to 24th in slugging .358 against his two favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Graham Ashcraft under 2.5 earned runs allowed at -125 with BetOnline
Who Starts for Washington?
Josiah Gray starts for the Nationals today.
Home teams get extra respect from oddsmakers because they typically perform better in their own venue than elsewhere.
But this is not the case for Gray, where his ERA is 5.17 compared to 2.39 on the road.
His home ERA could easily be much worse because he yielded a 6.10 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in his home start against Detroit.
In this game, he benefitted from yielding a very fortunate .200 BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Gray's Arsenal
One should expect Gray to struggle in general because his arsenal is deeply problematic.
His pitches lack quality in themselves.
For example, his fastball places in the 27th percentile in velocity and in the 13th percentile in spin.
These numbers indicate that batters easily keep up with and track the location of this pitch.
They also have an easy time against this pitch because, as heat maps show, he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Yet, for all its deficiencies, its the pitch that he throws second-most often.
While he does have plenty of alternative pitches to throw, they are likewise rather hittable ones.
Cincinnati's Lineup
The Reds lead the NL Central because they have improved tremendously hitting-wise.
Since June, they rank sixth in slugging .454 against Gray's pitches from righties.
They match up well against Gray also because he is a fly ball-inducing pitcher.
The Reds slug .41 better against fly ball-inducing pitchers than against ground ball-inducing ones.
Best Bet: Josiah Gray over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -150 with BetOnline
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles tonight.
Kremer throws a fastball, cutter, sinker, changeup, curveball, and sweeper.
As heat maps show, Kremer has a significant problem with location.
He tends to leave his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
This is especially true of the pitches he throws most frequently, his fastball, cutter, and sinker.
His pitches lack the quality to survive their poor location.
For example, his fastball places in the 34th percentile in velocity and in the 53rd percentile in spin.
These numbers indicate that this is a rather below-average pitch.
Kremer's Home Run Problem
Kremer has re-developed a problem that is especially deleterious to any pitcher's outlook in Yankee Stadium.
He has allowed multiple home runs in three straight games.
In total, he has allowed seven home runs in those three games.
His problem of allowing home runs is nothing new, but its current prominence is particularly worrisome in Yankee Stadium where the Yanks belt 1.57 home runs per game.
This figure would place them, overall, third in home runs per game.
Three active Yankee batters have accrued 11 home runs: Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Volpe, and Gleyber Torres.
Josh Donaldson has belted eight homers and several Yankee batters have seven.
Yankee Track Records
New York's lineup already boasts promising track records against Kremer.
DJ LeMahieu, Torres, and Giancarlo Stanton all hit over .400 and slug over .500 in their career with Kremer on the mound.
Best Bet: Dean Kremer over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -125 with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
- Graham Ashcraft is looking like his strong April self
- Ashcraft capably induces a lot of ground balls while minimizing hard contact
- The Nationals hit Ashcraft's favorite pitches very poorly
Who Starts for the Reds?
Graham Ashcraft starts for the Reds.
Ashcraft is coming off a strong performance: he limited San Diego to one run in 6.2 innings.
This start is important because, in it, he finally looked again like the pitcher who yielded a 2.10 ERA in April.
The April version of Ashcraft did a great job of inducing ground balls and minimizing hard contact.
Likewise, Ashcraft in his last start induced ground balls at a 62.5-percent rate and reduced his season average of hard contact allowed.
The similarities in terms of performance between Ashcraft in his last start and Ashcraft in the beginning of the season are critical because, in that month of April, he effectively battled tough teams like Texas.
His ability to resemble his April version of himself illustrates his ability to handle tough competition, competition that is even much tougher than that which he'll encounter today.
Matchup Deep Dive
Ashcraft throws mostly a cutter and slider, but he also throws a sinker.
His pitches boast an excellent mixture of both velocity and spin, which suggests that batters have a relatively difficult time keeping up with and tracking the location of his pitches.
This difficulty is amplified by the strong horizontal movement of his sinker and the extremely strong horizontal movement of his slider.
Ashcraft's high-quality pitches will overwhelm a low-quality lineup that ranks 26th in runs per game.
Plus, the Nationals match up poorly against him.
They rank 20th in slugging .393 against his pitches from righties.
This drops to 24th in slugging .358 against his two favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Graham Ashcraft under 2.5 earned runs allowed at -125 with BetOnline
- Josiah Gray tends to struggle at home
- Gray's repertoire suffers a major deficiency in velocity and spin
- The Reds will be glad that Gray is a fly ball-inducing pitcher
Who Starts for Washington?
Josiah Gray starts for the Nationals today.
Home teams get extra respect from oddsmakers because they typically perform better in their own venue than elsewhere.
But this is not the case for Gray, where his ERA is 5.17 compared to 2.39 on the road.
His home ERA could easily be much worse because he yielded a 6.10 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in his home start against Detroit.
In this game, he benefitted from yielding a very fortunate .200 BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Gray's Arsenal
One should expect Gray to struggle in general because his arsenal is deeply problematic.
His pitches lack quality in themselves.
For example, his fastball places in the 27th percentile in velocity and in the 13th percentile in spin.
These numbers indicate that batters easily keep up with and track the location of this pitch.
They also have an easy time against this pitch because, as heat maps show, he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Yet, for all its deficiencies, its the pitch that he throws second-most often.
While he does have plenty of alternative pitches to throw, they are likewise rather hittable ones.
Cincinnati's Lineup
The Reds lead the NL Central because they have improved tremendously hitting-wise.
Since June, they rank sixth in slugging .454 against Gray's pitches from righties.
They match up well against Gray also because he is a fly ball-inducing pitcher.
The Reds slug .41 better against fly ball-inducing pitchers than against ground ball-inducing ones.
Best Bet: Josiah Gray over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -150 with BetOnline
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, July 5, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
- Dean Kremer's pitches lack quality and are often poorly located
- Kremer has been giving up a lot of home runs
- The Yanks hit a lot of home runs and already boast promising track records against Kremer
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles tonight.
Kremer throws a fastball, cutter, sinker, changeup, curveball, and sweeper.
As heat maps show, Kremer has a significant problem with location.
He tends to leave his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
This is especially true of the pitches he throws most frequently, his fastball, cutter, and sinker.
His pitches lack the quality to survive their poor location.
For example, his fastball places in the 34th percentile in velocity and in the 53rd percentile in spin.
These numbers indicate that this is a rather below-average pitch.
Kremer's Home Run Problem
Kremer has re-developed a problem that is especially deleterious to any pitcher's outlook in Yankee Stadium.
He has allowed multiple home runs in three straight games.
In total, he has allowed seven home runs in those three games.
His problem of allowing home runs is nothing new, but its current prominence is particularly worrisome in Yankee Stadium where the Yanks belt 1.57 home runs per game.
This figure would place them, overall, third in home runs per game.
Three active Yankee batters have accrued 11 home runs: Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Volpe, and Gleyber Torres.
Josh Donaldson has belted eight homers and several Yankee batters have seven.
Yankee Track Records
New York's lineup already boasts promising track records against Kremer.
DJ LeMahieu, Torres, and Giancarlo Stanton all hit over .400 and slug over .500 in their career with Kremer on the mound.
Best Bet: Dean Kremer over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -125 with BetOnline
