3 Player Props June 28: Luke Weaver to Drag Down His Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
Who Starts for the Reds?
Luke Weaver starts for Cincinnati tonight.
As measured by several different statistics, Weaver is consistently awful.
He has allowed five earned runs in both of his last two starts and in three of his last four.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was over 6.00 in four of his last five starts.
In the one exception, he allowed three earned runs in 4.2 innings to lowly to Kansas City.
Weaver's Pitching Arsenal
Weaver struggles to perform well, because he has trouble finding a pitch that he can really rely on.
He wants to rely on his fastball -- this pitch is by far his favorite one to throw.
However, it yields a .346 BA and .607 slugging rate.
This pitch suffers from consistently poor location in that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Plus, its low velocity and negligible movement entail that batters easily keep up with it.
While batters likewise thrive against his second-favorite pitch, his change-up, his most vulnerable pitch is arguably his cutter.
Opponents bat .378 and slug .667 against his cutter.
Baltimore's Lineup
Tonight's outlook is negative for Weaver because he matches up poorly against Baltimore's lineup in view of what pitches he throws.
Against Weaver's pitches, the fastball, changeup, cutter, and curveball from righties, the Orioles rank ninth in slugging .444.
Among others, watch out for Anthony Santander, who has four multi-hit games and five home runs in his last ten games.
Best Bet: Luke Weaver over 3.5 earned runs at +110 with BetOnline
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Kyle Gibson starts for the Orioles tonight.
Don't let recency bias goad you into going against Gibson, because Gibson reliably bounces back after a terrible start, defined by a start in which he allows four earned runs or more.
He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in every start directly following a terrible start.
This trend is particularly impressive because three of those starts took place against powerful lineups: the Rangers, Rays, and Blue Jays.
In the other start, he likewise locked down Detroit.
Gibson's Pitching Arsenal
Gibson's pitching arsenal is characterized by its variety.
He throws six different pitches over eight percent of the time, yet he doesn't throw a single pitch with over 25.6 percent frequency.
This variety grants him flexibility.
For example, two starts ago, he threw his fastball most often.
In his last start, he featured his sinker.
He can feature different pitches depending on the matchup and depending on which pitches are working for him.
Changeup and Sweeper
Against lefties, Gibson will emphasize his changeup.
This pitch has been his best one -- as it yields a .304 slugging rate, which is bad news for key Cincinnati lefties like TJ Friedl.
Right-handed batters will often see Gibson's sweeper, which is even harder to hit and will be a weapon especially against the likes of Matt McLain and Spencer Steer.
The Matchup
Tonight's outlook is strong for Gibson also because the Reds slug below average against Gibson's pitches from righties.
They slug .385 against them outside of their hitter-friendly ballpark.
Best Bet: Kyle Gibson under 2.5 earned runs at -125 with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Lucas Giolito starts for the White Sox tonight.
Giolito carries strong form into tonight's contest: he has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in his last four starts.
His form is particularly relevant to note because he has sustained it even against teams that match up similarly well against him as the Angels do.
Rematches
Besides reliably thriving against lineups like Boston's that are similarly dangerous to the Angels' lineup, Giolito is a good bet tonight because the spot is strong for him.
His strong spot tonight is that this game is a rematch.
Giolito has had four rematches this season.
Three times out of four, he did better in the rematch than in the first game.
When he builds this trend tonight, he'll allow fewer than three earned runs.
Tonight's venue is favorable to him because, in terms of career BA and slugging rate allowed, he prefers pitching in Angel Stadium over his home ballpark, which is where the first meeting took place.
Giolito in June
Besides the bare fact that tonight is a rematch, tonight's outlook is strong for Giolito because his first meeting with the Angels took place in May.
He is a different pitcher, however, in June.
All of his pitches -- his fastball, slider, and changeup -- have become measurably more effective.
One unique aspect of his arsenal is the intense 12 mph velocity differential between his fastball and changeup.
He uses this differential to play both pitch pitches well off each other.
Best Bet: Lucas Giolito under 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Baltimore Orioles
Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 7:05 p.m. ET at Camden Yards in Baltimore
- Luke Weaver is consistently awful partly because he lacks an effective favorite pitch
- Weaver's most recent starts demonstrate his unreliability against opposing lineups in general
- Baltimore's lineup slugs Weaver's pitches well
Who Starts for the Reds?
Luke Weaver starts for Cincinnati tonight.
As measured by several different statistics, Weaver is consistently awful.
He has allowed five earned runs in both of his last two starts and in three of his last four.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was over 6.00 in four of his last five starts.
In the one exception, he allowed three earned runs in 4.2 innings to lowly to Kansas City.
Weaver's Pitching Arsenal
Weaver struggles to perform well, because he has trouble finding a pitch that he can really rely on.
He wants to rely on his fastball -- this pitch is by far his favorite one to throw.
However, it yields a .346 BA and .607 slugging rate.
This pitch suffers from consistently poor location in that he often leaves it in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Plus, its low velocity and negligible movement entail that batters easily keep up with it.
While batters likewise thrive against his second-favorite pitch, his change-up, his most vulnerable pitch is arguably his cutter.
Opponents bat .378 and slug .667 against his cutter.
Baltimore's Lineup
Tonight's outlook is negative for Weaver because he matches up poorly against Baltimore's lineup in view of what pitches he throws.
Against Weaver's pitches, the fastball, changeup, cutter, and curveball from righties, the Orioles rank ninth in slugging .444.
Among others, watch out for Anthony Santander, who has four multi-hit games and five home runs in his last ten games.
Best Bet: Luke Weaver over 3.5 earned runs at +110 with BetOnline
- Kyle Gibson is in a strong bounce-back spot
- Variety is a key quality of Gibson's pitching arsenal
- Gibson matches up well with the Reds especially outside of Cincinnati
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Kyle Gibson starts for the Orioles tonight.
Don't let recency bias goad you into going against Gibson, because Gibson reliably bounces back after a terrible start, defined by a start in which he allows four earned runs or more.
He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in every start directly following a terrible start.
This trend is particularly impressive because three of those starts took place against powerful lineups: the Rangers, Rays, and Blue Jays.
In the other start, he likewise locked down Detroit.
Gibson's Pitching Arsenal
Gibson's pitching arsenal is characterized by its variety.
He throws six different pitches over eight percent of the time, yet he doesn't throw a single pitch with over 25.6 percent frequency.
This variety grants him flexibility.
For example, two starts ago, he threw his fastball most often.
In his last start, he featured his sinker.
He can feature different pitches depending on the matchup and depending on which pitches are working for him.
Changeup and Sweeper
Against lefties, Gibson will emphasize his changeup.
This pitch has been his best one -- as it yields a .304 slugging rate, which is bad news for key Cincinnati lefties like TJ Friedl.
Right-handed batters will often see Gibson's sweeper, which is even harder to hit and will be a weapon especially against the likes of Matt McLain and Spencer Steer.
The Matchup
Tonight's outlook is strong for Gibson also because the Reds slug below average against Gibson's pitches from righties.
They slug .385 against them outside of their hitter-friendly ballpark.
Best Bet: Kyle Gibson under 2.5 earned runs at -125 with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, June 28, 2023 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
- Lucas Giolito is thriving against teams that are about as dangerous as the Angels
- Giolito is a different pitcher in June than he was in previous months
- Giolito's pitches have become measurably more effective
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Lucas Giolito starts for the White Sox tonight.
Giolito carries strong form into tonight's contest: he has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in his last four starts.
His form is particularly relevant to note because he has sustained it even against teams that match up similarly well against him as the Angels do.
Rematches
Besides reliably thriving against lineups like Boston's that are similarly dangerous to the Angels' lineup, Giolito is a good bet tonight because the spot is strong for him.
His strong spot tonight is that this game is a rematch.
Giolito has had four rematches this season.
Three times out of four, he did better in the rematch than in the first game.
When he builds this trend tonight, he'll allow fewer than three earned runs.
Tonight's venue is favorable to him because, in terms of career BA and slugging rate allowed, he prefers pitching in Angel Stadium over his home ballpark, which is where the first meeting took place.
Giolito in June
Besides the bare fact that tonight is a rematch, tonight's outlook is strong for Giolito because his first meeting with the Angels took place in May.
He is a different pitcher, however, in June.
All of his pitches -- his fastball, slider, and changeup -- have become measurably more effective.
One unique aspect of his arsenal is the intense 12 mph velocity differential between his fastball and changeup.
He uses this differential to play both pitch pitches well off each other.
Best Bet: Lucas Giolito under 2.5 earned runs at -120 with BetOnline
