3 Player Props June 21: White Sox and Rangers Starters Will Both Struggle
Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians
Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
Who Starts for Oakland?
Paul Blackburn starts for the A's today.
Blackburn enters today's game in strong form: two starts ago, he shut out the Brewers over six innings; most recently, he held Tampa Bay to two earned runs in 5.2 innings.
In both starts, Blackburn did a superb job of limiting hard contact.
Blackburn ably keeps hitters off-balance with his mix of six pitches.
He throws his sinker most commonly, but he throws even this pitch only 20.8 percent of the time.
The pitch that he employs least often, his changeup, he throws about 13 percent less often than his sinker.
This variety in his arsenal keeps batters guessing and allows him to be more flexible by emphasizing different pitches depending on the matchup.
He also makes himself hard to hit by keeping his pitches on the borders of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
As heat maps show, he does a great job of this especially with his sinker.
His slider and cutter also distinguish themselves with their strong horizontal movement.
History
Blackburn's outlook is positive because he loves facing Cleveland.
Against this team, he owns a 2.96 ERA in four career starts.
The Guardians slug a paltry .348 against him in their own ballpark.
Blackburn vs. Guardian Batters
Blackburn's outlook is also solid today because he has a strong track record against Guardian batters not named Jose Ramirez.
For example, Myles Straw and Steven Kwan are combined 0-for-8 against him.
Let Ramirez get all the hits he wants; his teammates will leave him stranded.
Best Bet: Paul Blackburn under 2.5 earned runs at -115 with BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
Who Starts for Texas?
Martin Perez starts for the Rangers today.
Perez's season-long 4.54 ERA masks the fact that there are two versions of Perez: the one who owns a 1.71 home ERA and the one who owns a 6.50 road ERA.
Away from the Rangers' faithful, Perez has been awful especially lately: he has allowed a combined total of 13 earned runs in his past two road starts.
11 of the 12 home runs that he's allowed this season came on the road.
It's not like he's just facing the best lineups on the road, either.
To give two examples, Oakland belted three home runs against him while Detroit accrued two homers against him.
Overall, Perez is yielding a .330 BA and .545 slugging rate on the road.
Perez's pitching arsenal makes him incredibly vulnerable.
His stuff lacks velocity and spin.
For example, his fastball places in the 13th percentile in velocity and in the 11th percentile in spin.
As heat maps show, he also has a terrible tendency to leave pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters do greater damage.
His pitches lack the quality to survive bad location.
Track Record
Perez's outlook is terrible tonight because White Sox batters kill him -- they clearly have him figured out.
Jake Burger, Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal, and Luis Robert Jr. are among those who bat at least .600 with Perez on the mound.
They and their teammates are sure to thrive in their home ballpark where Perez yields a 6.85 ERA in four career starts.
Best Bet: Martin Perez over 2.5 earned runs at -140 with BetOnline
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Michael Kopech starts for Chicago tonight.
While he has been performing well lately, he's benefitted from facing soft competition.
The last three teams that he's faced, Seattle, Miami, and Detroit, slug at least below average against his pitches from righties.
More to this point, he loves pitching in the AL Central.
Not only does he get to face a bunch of weaker lineups more often, but those lineups all match up poorly against him.
Also recently, he locked down Cleveland and Kansas City lineups that rank bottom-three against his pitches from righties.
Along with Detroit, these two teams are three of the four least productive teams in terms of runs scored per game.
While Minnesota is more productive, the Twins happen to rank bottom-10 against his pitches from righties.
So, his ERA is as low as it is because he has faced many easy tests throughout the season.
But his 3.92 ERA is also flattering in that his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 5.31, which reflects how poorly he's performing individually.
He's been fortunate to yield only a .247 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and to strand runners at such a high rate -- 84.9 percent. These figures are unsustainable.
Tonight's Matchup
Kopech's outlook tonight is especially negative because Texas ranks 4th in slugging .447 against his pitches from righties.
He has allowed at least four earned runs in all four of his games against teams that rank top-eight against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Michael Kopech over 2.5 earned runs at -130 with BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians
Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland
- Paul Blackburn enjoys strong form
- Blackburn enjoys pitching against the Guardians
- Guardian batters have generally been unproductive against Blackburn
Who Starts for Oakland?
Paul Blackburn starts for the A's today.
Blackburn enters today's game in strong form: two starts ago, he shut out the Brewers over six innings; most recently, he held Tampa Bay to two earned runs in 5.2 innings.
In both starts, Blackburn did a superb job of limiting hard contact.
Blackburn ably keeps hitters off-balance with his mix of six pitches.
He throws his sinker most commonly, but he throws even this pitch only 20.8 percent of the time.
The pitch that he employs least often, his changeup, he throws about 13 percent less often than his sinker.
This variety in his arsenal keeps batters guessing and allows him to be more flexible by emphasizing different pitches depending on the matchup.
He also makes himself hard to hit by keeping his pitches on the borders of the strike zone where batters tend to do less damage.
As heat maps show, he does a great job of this especially with his sinker.
His slider and cutter also distinguish themselves with their strong horizontal movement.
History
Blackburn's outlook is positive because he loves facing Cleveland.
Against this team, he owns a 2.96 ERA in four career starts.
The Guardians slug a paltry .348 against him in their own ballpark.
Blackburn vs. Guardian Batters
Blackburn's outlook is also solid today because he has a strong track record against Guardian batters not named Jose Ramirez.
For example, Myles Straw and Steven Kwan are combined 0-for-8 against him.
Let Ramirez get all the hits he wants; his teammates will leave him stranded.
Best Bet: Paul Blackburn under 2.5 earned runs at -115 with BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago
- Martin Perez is way worse on the road than at home
- Perez tends to give up a lot of home runs on the road
- White Sox batters own amazing individual track records against Perez
Who Starts for Texas?
Martin Perez starts for the Rangers today.
Perez's season-long 4.54 ERA masks the fact that there are two versions of Perez: the one who owns a 1.71 home ERA and the one who owns a 6.50 road ERA.
Away from the Rangers' faithful, Perez has been awful especially lately: he has allowed a combined total of 13 earned runs in his past two road starts.
11 of the 12 home runs that he's allowed this season came on the road.
It's not like he's just facing the best lineups on the road, either.
To give two examples, Oakland belted three home runs against him while Detroit accrued two homers against him.
Overall, Perez is yielding a .330 BA and .545 slugging rate on the road.
Perez's pitching arsenal makes him incredibly vulnerable.
His stuff lacks velocity and spin.
For example, his fastball places in the 13th percentile in velocity and in the 11th percentile in spin.
As heat maps show, he also has a terrible tendency to leave pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters do greater damage.
His pitches lack the quality to survive bad location.
Track Record
Perez's outlook is terrible tonight because White Sox batters kill him -- they clearly have him figured out.
Jake Burger, Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal, and Luis Robert Jr. are among those who bat at least .600 with Perez on the mound.
They and their teammates are sure to thrive in their home ballpark where Perez yields a 6.85 ERA in four career starts.
Best Bet: Martin Perez over 2.5 earned runs at -140 with BetOnline
- Michael Kopech has benefitted from facing soft competition
- Kopech reliably struggles against strong competition
- The Rangers match up excellently against him
Who Starts for the White Sox?
Michael Kopech starts for Chicago tonight.
While he has been performing well lately, he's benefitted from facing soft competition.
The last three teams that he's faced, Seattle, Miami, and Detroit, slug at least below average against his pitches from righties.
More to this point, he loves pitching in the AL Central.
Not only does he get to face a bunch of weaker lineups more often, but those lineups all match up poorly against him.
Also recently, he locked down Cleveland and Kansas City lineups that rank bottom-three against his pitches from righties.
Along with Detroit, these two teams are three of the four least productive teams in terms of runs scored per game.
While Minnesota is more productive, the Twins happen to rank bottom-10 against his pitches from righties.
So, his ERA is as low as it is because he has faced many easy tests throughout the season.
But his 3.92 ERA is also flattering in that his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 5.31, which reflects how poorly he's performing individually.
He's been fortunate to yield only a .247 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) and to strand runners at such a high rate -- 84.9 percent. These figures are unsustainable.
Tonight's Matchup
Kopech's outlook tonight is especially negative because Texas ranks 4th in slugging .447 against his pitches from righties.
He has allowed at least four earned runs in all four of his games against teams that rank top-eight against his pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Michael Kopech over 2.5 earned runs at -130 with BetOnline
