Wednesday MLB Totals

RambleOn

The Law of Winning
Running Total: 8-5
Overall Total: 8-0 + 8 units
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Fade Plays: 5-2 +5.35 units
(Florida/Washington Under 9.5
Philly/NY Under 9.5 pending)

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Regular Plays: 0-0
(Colorado +105 pending)


Game 3....

Atlanta/Colorado Over 10.5 (4.84/4.4)


Okay, two things:

1- I was wrong in my math. Somehow, I looked over the fact that I am playing Game 3 to profit a unit plus my losses. So, instead of 3.84 being risked on Game 3, its 4.84. That is 8.24 units lost each time you lose a series, not 6.75 as I calculated earlier. Simple math yet somehow I kept getting it wrong. That means you have to g0 90-10 over 100 series to win 8 units. I'm going to go back to last year and see how Game 1's fared against Game 2's. I think I may need to scale my bets to get a benefit out of the fact that Game 2's hit at a higher percentage than Game 2's....

2 - I may not be betting this personally. I am posting it for anyone who wants to play and to track the system, but I may not be playing it for as much as it is posted. This is because somehow..... somehow..... I did not put my bet in last night. Just checked my account and was shocked to see that I was still at the same amount I was yesterday. That means the value is not there for me to bet this for 4.84 units, as I personally only have 1.1 invested. I will make a decision later regarding this, but for posting purposes I am risking the full 4.84 units.

Let's hope this FLIES over. After watching the game yesterday I know it can. 16 hits but too many people stranded on base. Shouldn't happen again.
 
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Just as I thought - Numbers from last year.....

Game 1's:12-14-2

Game 2's: 9-4

Game 3's: 3-2

Looks like Game 1 is a losing wager. This year that is keeping up, as Game 1's are currently at 5-4.

Looks like Game 2 was the money maker. Kepping up this year, as Game 2's are 3-1 with the loss tonight.

Game 3's were a winner, but barely. No Game 3's this year.


Looks like I am going to start scaling my bets starting next series to acknowledge that Game 2's are the money maker. Probably risk 1/2 of what I usually risk on Game 1, and add that to Game 2. So, a series loss results in the same overall loss (8.24 units), but many series that are won on Game 2 will result in profiting something like 1.5 units instead of just 1, and therefore it will allow me to win less series to profit.
 
I'd be up somewhere around 10 units instead of 8 had I been playing with the altered unit structure. Next series, the structure will be as follows:

Game 1: Risk .53 instead of 1.1
Game 2: Risk 2.87 instead of 2.3
Game 3: Risk the same as regular Game 3.

Also, I'm going to be playing the Game 3 over to win 2.1 units, just going to try and profit 1 unit since I somehow missed Game 2. :shake:
 
Yeah, fuck these guys! I bet the over last night, but I don't think I will chase tonight. What happened to the thin air at Coors Field?

GL Ramble
 
ReNew - Yep, I'm worried. :prayer

I see a couple people "in the know" against this total. I'm scared.
 
like both of those under bets ramble but i want to see a few more games in the new stadium before i start betting on totals there. really not sure how that field plays yet.

as always gl today !
 
Bored so I did some research on 1st 5 lines for these games:

Game 1's: 5-4
Game 2's: 1-3
Game 3's: 3-0

So, a perfect 9-0 here as well with a 3 game chase, except that it Game 2's are opposite of of the full game, and there have been 3 that went to a full 3 game chase. 66% without a chase if you bet on Game 1 then Game 3 if it loses. May be something I look into.
 
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