Wednesday MLB (6/27)

reNew Orleans

Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
April: 91-69-3 +29.126 Units
May: 112-109-1 +17.898 Units
June: 68-61-2 +36.248 Units

Overall: 270-239-6 +83.272 Units
Sides: 155-141 +45.928 Units
Run Lines: 18-47 -35.922 Units
Totals: 97-51-6 +73.266 Units

2-0 +5 Units yesterday. Both games were a lot closer to losing than I would've liked with the late run scoring opportunities for the nats to go over and LAD/ARZ sitting 5-5 for more than half the game.


I am waiting on lines/value so I've got some leans, most of my info/thoughts in the Thoughts/Dicussion thread, so I am going to keep these brief


Leans:

Kansas City Royals +240 (De La Rosa v. Weaver)
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels UNDER 9 +101
Wendelstedt is an under ump to me and both these pitchers have good career #'s (although limited) vs the opposing teams. Weaver has had a bruised shoulder and was feeling ill (sore throat? strep throat came back negative I assume) but he said he felt fine yesterday. De La Rosa's not the most consistant guy out that but I feel like the Royals are riding high with some big wins and the Angels may feel a little pressured just to get a W and might try to hard to win. Wind blowing out to Left-Center @ 6 mph.

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners OVER 9.5 +105 (Dice-K vs. Freierbend)

I'd rather try to get 9, see if anyone offers anything later today but Freierbend has not faired very well in the bigs and Dice-K, although he's pitched well as of late, is going against a team that's seen him twice already. Wind blowing out to LC @ 4 mph. Knight ump today but doesn't have a lot of experience so I can't say his stats mean much but 62.1% strikes called. Still the names of the pitchers just say over to me.

Baltimore Orioles +127 (Clemens v. Bedard)
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles Under 8.5 -106

Both teams bats are struggling at the moment. O's off their emotional high now and no Tejada means the runs are going to be hard to come by now. Clemens may finally get to settle in today although he hasn't been very sharp yet. Tschida year to year seems to go under. Im just waiting on the Yankee backers to jump on Clemens, total don't know if I'll play.

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants UNDER 8 -116 (Maddux v. Cain)

Cain never gets run support, Cain facing a team he dominates. Maddux seems to own the Giants as well. I mean you don't ahve to ask more than two teams that cant hit and two good pitchers. wind is blowing out @ 11 mph.

Washington Nationals +206 (Bowie v. Smoltz)
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves UNDER 8 -110

I am still not a believer in the Braves bats, HRs are the only way they can score it seems. Bowie does walk a good # of guys and that is a concern because he has given up 5 HRs in 7 starts this year. He doesn't give up many hits though. 25 Hits in his 34.3 innings pitched (STARTS). Smoltz will bounce back after his 5 ER game vs the Tigers. There's no doubt about that and this is a good team to do it against as the Nats are struggled to score as well.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 -102 (Lowe vs. Webb)
Lowe
Webb
Eddings

Wind at game time appears itll stop blowing out and start blowing from L to R. I am hoping people keep taking the over. 8 is being offered at Matchbook so hopefully i can get a good # on that. It's hot but low humidity in the desert and ground ball pitchers so wind doesn't worry me much. Bullpens might be taxed. No Broxton and Lyon.


BOL to Yall Wednesday:cheers:
 
best of luck today renew- i offically retire from this shit for a good amount of time, working on cfb now, still gonna check in over here see how you guys are doing..make that cash
 
thanks green - i don't blame you, baseball is so unpredictable and people keep taking some tough loses each day. But you'll be ready for football this year. I'll have to start capping some football soon too. never done it really, just did it by feel and tailed people last year. so you recommend Phil Steele's magazine?

thanks dmoney - aren't official plays yet but I like the value on them. always love playing dogs.
 
Kansas City Royals +240 (De La Rosa v. Weaver)
- 2.4:1 on your money... why not

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants UNDER 8 -116 (Maddux v. Cain)
Cain never gets run support, Cain facing a team he dominates. Maddux seems to own the Giants as well. I mean you don't ahve to ask more than two teams that cant hit and two good pitchers. wind is blowing out @ 11 mph.
:shake:

Washington Nationals +206 (Bowie v. Smoltz)
- 2:1 on a team is nice, but at least the Royals have some positives; it is difficult to find a positive about the Gnats

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 -102 (Lowe vs. Webb)
Lowe
Webb
Eddings

Wind at game time appears itll stop blowing out and start blowing from L to R. I am hoping people keep taking the over. 8 is being offered at Matchbook so hopefully i can get a good # on that. It's hot but low humidity in the desert and ground ball pitchers so wind doesn't worry me much. Bullpens might be taxed. No Broxton and Lyon.

:shake: although the wind direction change worries me

:cheers:
 
Baltimore Orioles +127 (Clemens v. Bedard)
-bedard is pitching better than clemens (my opinion)
-skankees are in a 3-game losing streak (rule of 3)
-BUT i do not trust the crappy o's bullpen...
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD></TD><TD>Team</TD><TD>/ ERA</TD><TD>/ W-L /</TD><TD>S-BS</TD><TD>/ BA</TD><TD>/ H</TD><TD>/ ER</TD><TD>/ HR</TD><TD>/ BB</TD><TD>/ K</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2></TD><TD class=datahl2>BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>/ 5.25</TD><TD class=datacell>/ 9-19</TD><TD class=datacell>/ 13-11</TD><TD class=datacell>/ .267</TD><TD class=datacell>/ 228</TD><TD class=datacell>/ 128</TD><TD class=datacell>/ 17</TD><TD class=datacell>/ 109 /</TD><TD class=datacell>174</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

if you can get a 1st5 play at a decent price on the O's, then I'd bite

GL nola
 
thanks Blue - looks like we agree on a good amount of plays today. unfortunately matchbook does not offer 5 inning lines or I would probably play a lot more of those. also the wind change from blowing OUT to blowing across is making me like the play more for the under in LAD/ARZ game.


Locking in some early afternoon plays:

Kansas City Royals +242 (De La Rosa)
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels UNDER 9 +103

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants UNDER 8 -117 (Maddux v. Cain) (3 Units)

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners OVER 9.5 +101 (Dice-K v. Freierbend)

will be back later to post my night games, thinking I will be playing the was/atl and arz/lad totals for sure.
 
Phil Steele magazine has the most information to get started with for beginning of the season, just got it today, its good to sort through. I also picked up Athlon one as well, just like to compare back and forth through the two mags but overall I would have to say the Steele magazine is the better one
 
Looks good renew. On a lot of the same totals. ETG, sorry to hear your quitting the bases. Always enjoyed your info and writeups. Picked up my Phil Steele preview last week, as well. Good stuff. GL.
 
Phil Steele magazine has the most information to get started with for beginning of the season, just got it today, its good to sort through. I also picked up Athlon one as well, just like to compare back and forth through the two mags but overall I would have to say the Steele magazine is the better one

Sounds good bro, I was looking online and Steele also has magazines just covering individual conferences. I might look into that and try to focus in on a couple. Only what... 64 days left?
 
Sounds good bro, I was looking online and Steele also has magazines just covering individual conferences. I might look into that and try to focus in on a couple. Only what... 64 days left?

That is a good idea, I did that somewhat last yr. I focused in on the WAC for a lot of my games where I feel there are like 4 tiers of teams. The top, the competitive, the decent, and the awful and in that conference, teams who are suppose to cover the spreads do so. Just broke down my first game, it can't come fast enough!

Once again, Best of Luck 2day
 
yeah, i wish matchbook would offer 1st 5 wagers.

hey nola, buck that trend you have of doing well in the day and horrible at night. was it this weekend that you went 5-0 on day games and 0-4 on night games?

GL buddy...
 
That is a good idea, I did that somewhat last yr. I focused in on the WAC for a lot of my games where I feel there are like 4 tiers of teams. The top, the competitive, the decent, and the awful and in that conference, teams who are suppose to cover the spreads do so. Just broke down my first game, it can't come fast enough!

Once again, Best of Luck 2day

thanks green - interesting. So those games played out like you thought pretty much. I was always scared of the smaller conference since you never saw them play on TV but I guess if you do research first you'd be familiar haha. what game did you cap already?
 
thanks steed - GL with your plays today

shakes - sorry man... both those bullpens are awful. I don't even know who Petrick is. they have plenty of arms to come in for 1/3 of innings but left him in for 1 2/3. thats terrible.

lol Blue Chip - i guess you could say that. It has happened to me a bunch where I'll start out nice and finish cold. Even in night games I'll do well in the 1st set and then the late games roll around and I'll miss them, just too many plays when I should cut down. that 5-0/0-4 day was pretty recent though lol.
 
thanks shakes - maybe so? haha. If I finish like 5-1 today then tomorrow I'll go 0-4, 1-5. thats just what happens to me.

Blue_Chip - it looks like a solid one, I said a little bit about it above saying both teams were struggling to score at the moment. The O's right after Perlozzo's firing were playing with emotion and were playing pretty well but now they've come back down to earth and no Tejada, they just have nothing left to power their lineup. Bedard has been decent vs the Yanks and Clemens didn't do very well last start but the Yankees know they have to step up in his games, bullpen hasn't done too badly in his starts although they were horrible against the Giants this weekend. The bullpens scare me a bit but think we will get quality SP today and get 3 or 4 runs at most off the two pitchers combined. Tschida helps the under. But their is rain in the forecast and humidity is going to be rising, wind blowing out @ 4-6 mph. It's looking like a stronger play the longer I look at it, just don't want a rain delay.
 
close Blue_Chip haha. 3-0 +6.45 Units so far


Adding:

New York Spankmees @ Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 +115 (Clemens v. Bedard)
typed plenty enough above to convince myself.

a couple more to come, waiting to get some better lines.
 
Trout - no doubt about it. can't say it any better :cheers:

I got +2.42 from the Royals and +1.03 from the Under. games under way


Adding:

Washington Gnationals +202 (Bowie v. Smoltzy)
Washington Gnationals @ Atlanta Braves Under 8.5 -122 (3 Units)
I don't understand whats going on with the line movement on the total it was -104 then -115 or so and now +106 but that's at 8, I decided to go with 8.5 and pay the juice. Lines getting pounded from every which way. Anyways just briefly what I said before, the Bravos have been scoring most of their runs off of HRs lately. They hit 3 HRs and got 5 of the 6 runs yesterday from HRs. Bowie is hard to hit, i forget the # but said it earlier but he walks too many, still if your aren't hitting and he can walk you and get you to GIDP thats two outs. just hope he doesnt walk to bases loaded and give up a grand slam. also that's why I back the Gnats, they just play hard, have a tendency to win these +200 games and the value is with them, if the other team can't hit then why should they be -200 or more, even if it is Smoltz on the mound for them.
 
i am done tonight, looks like I am going to be 4-3 +2.79, but I am not happy at the moment.

Washington got rocked and some managing mistakes in the 4th inning (atleast in my opinion) cost them a shot of hanging around. seems like they were willingly accepting a beating. Then I missed out on a great price for the under in lad/arz @ +108. I am pretty upset with myself for missing that price and waiting too long because it ended up being like -115 like 5 minutes later.
 
Recap:

Kansas City Royals +242 (De La Rosa v. Weaver) W
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels UNDER 9 +103 W
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants UNDER 8 -117 (Maddux v. Cain) (3 Units) W
Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners OVER 9.5 +101 (Dice-K v. Freierbend) L
New York Spankmees @ Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 +115 (Clemens v. Bedard) W
Washington Gnationals +202 (Bowie v. Smoltzy) L
Washington Gnationals @ Atlanta Braves Under 8.5 -122 (3 Units) L

actually finished 4-3 +2.94. I am only assuming Washington doesnt make an incredible come back down 12-0 in the 7th. lol
 
nice, still postive night.. i got done with those cocksuckers from ND vs. GT...Oh man I hope ND is favored
 
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