Unicorn
NHL Enthusiast
Hey guys! Just some early thoughts with my final plays coming later this afternoon because I'm going to a CEB CUP 2007 opening game - my home team Zagreb vs some French baseball club 
NY Yankees - Arizona (+205)
Unlike yesterday when I decided to pass on Webb at the last moment, I actually like Livan Hernandez and the Snakes tonight as even bigger road dogs. I like the fact that Livan is an endurance guy. He can throw 125 pitches or more pitches in a game every 5 days what isn't very common feat. Knowing that Yankees are usually very patient at the plate, I can see him going cca 7 innings with 4 runs allowed. Now the question is - will D'Backs be able to score at least 5 off Mussina? I think they may be able to do that. Moose has been disasterous this season and even very potent Yankees offense hasn't been able to win much games for him, only 3 (they're 3-6 in his starts despite his 2-3 record). So the way I see this game is - road team facing a pitcher who's been throwing batting practice in 80% of his season starts vs struggling road team's offense who I'm looking to explode tonight, versus potent home team's offense who'll be facing a tough road team's pitcher who may be able to neutralize them a bit. I like Zona's chances in this game. I'll go even further and predict a 8-5 Diamondbacks final score (confidence slowly going up these days hehe).
Detroit (-120) - Milwaukee
Run support is very likely to decide this game. At least that's how I see it. Both Maroth and Capuano have been bad in their current situations - Capuano on road (2-3, 5.70 ERA), Maroth at home (0-2, 5.60 ERA), both in a night game (+4.50 ERA). But with Capuano getting approx. 3 runs per start, Maroth obviously got a noticable advantage getting from 6 to 8 runs per his start. So it's not suprising that Maroth's record is 4-2, 5.29 ERA with his team going 8-3 in his starts. Plus the fact that Brewers aren't swinging the bats so good away from home while the Tigers don't care if they play on the road or at home, they've been hitting in both situations plus they've been far better team lately...
Chicago Cubs (-140) - Seattle
A tough, extra inning loss is never easy to overcome. At least not for most of the teams in Majors. But the Cubs... I just think they may show some strong character tonight and successfully rebound. It won't be easy to go against Batista who's been winning most of his starts games this season, but after all, it's just Miguel Batista with his usual 5+ ERA. This kid Marshall has been very stellar this season so far, and the Cubs have been giving him great run support (6-7 runs per start on average). In addition - after a leftie Washburn, Lee and company may be more than happy to see again a right handed pitcher on the mound on the opposide side (they're much better vs RHP).
San Francisco - Toronto (+138)
If the Blue Jays are going to avoid the sweep, they got the right man on the mound for them today. Dustin McGowan has been great lately, winning 2 of his last 3 starts and posting a 2.91 ERA in the process. He's also been durable, totaling a 21.2 IP in the span. On top of that - Jays batters awarded him with great run support of more than 6 runs per start and considering that Lincecum has been struggling lately (6.00 ERA with Giants losing all of his last 3 starts), I can see them avoiding the sweep today as solid road underdogs.
Houston (-108) - Oakland
After the Astros pulled out a late inning win last night, I can see them building off of that with their man Sampson on the mound. I said "their man" because Chris has been their hottest pitcher lately, winning 2 of his last 3 starts with very solid 3.48 ERA. A total of 20.2 IP is also very solid but the run support he was getting in that span is just great - almost 6 runs per game. I guess Joe (Black) Blanton hasn't been so lucky, with A's averaging less than 2 runs during his last 3 starts with him taking a losing decision twice. I think this game may be a low scoring one, though, but with Astros winning 4-3 or something like that.
Other leans and possible plays:
Cincinnati (+147)
Baltimore (-153)
Pittsburgh (-159)
...although I doubt I'll lay that much chalk so I guess only other possible play for me may be Cincy for similar or same stake as yesterday. I'll do some write-up if I end up playing it..
:cheers:
NY Yankees - Arizona (+205)
Unlike yesterday when I decided to pass on Webb at the last moment, I actually like Livan Hernandez and the Snakes tonight as even bigger road dogs. I like the fact that Livan is an endurance guy. He can throw 125 pitches or more pitches in a game every 5 days what isn't very common feat. Knowing that Yankees are usually very patient at the plate, I can see him going cca 7 innings with 4 runs allowed. Now the question is - will D'Backs be able to score at least 5 off Mussina? I think they may be able to do that. Moose has been disasterous this season and even very potent Yankees offense hasn't been able to win much games for him, only 3 (they're 3-6 in his starts despite his 2-3 record). So the way I see this game is - road team facing a pitcher who's been throwing batting practice in 80% of his season starts vs struggling road team's offense who I'm looking to explode tonight, versus potent home team's offense who'll be facing a tough road team's pitcher who may be able to neutralize them a bit. I like Zona's chances in this game. I'll go even further and predict a 8-5 Diamondbacks final score (confidence slowly going up these days hehe).
Detroit (-120) - Milwaukee
Run support is very likely to decide this game. At least that's how I see it. Both Maroth and Capuano have been bad in their current situations - Capuano on road (2-3, 5.70 ERA), Maroth at home (0-2, 5.60 ERA), both in a night game (+4.50 ERA). But with Capuano getting approx. 3 runs per start, Maroth obviously got a noticable advantage getting from 6 to 8 runs per his start. So it's not suprising that Maroth's record is 4-2, 5.29 ERA with his team going 8-3 in his starts. Plus the fact that Brewers aren't swinging the bats so good away from home while the Tigers don't care if they play on the road or at home, they've been hitting in both situations plus they've been far better team lately...
Chicago Cubs (-140) - Seattle
A tough, extra inning loss is never easy to overcome. At least not for most of the teams in Majors. But the Cubs... I just think they may show some strong character tonight and successfully rebound. It won't be easy to go against Batista who's been winning most of his starts games this season, but after all, it's just Miguel Batista with his usual 5+ ERA. This kid Marshall has been very stellar this season so far, and the Cubs have been giving him great run support (6-7 runs per start on average). In addition - after a leftie Washburn, Lee and company may be more than happy to see again a right handed pitcher on the mound on the opposide side (they're much better vs RHP).
San Francisco - Toronto (+138)
If the Blue Jays are going to avoid the sweep, they got the right man on the mound for them today. Dustin McGowan has been great lately, winning 2 of his last 3 starts and posting a 2.91 ERA in the process. He's also been durable, totaling a 21.2 IP in the span. On top of that - Jays batters awarded him with great run support of more than 6 runs per start and considering that Lincecum has been struggling lately (6.00 ERA with Giants losing all of his last 3 starts), I can see them avoiding the sweep today as solid road underdogs.
Houston (-108) - Oakland
After the Astros pulled out a late inning win last night, I can see them building off of that with their man Sampson on the mound. I said "their man" because Chris has been their hottest pitcher lately, winning 2 of his last 3 starts with very solid 3.48 ERA. A total of 20.2 IP is also very solid but the run support he was getting in that span is just great - almost 6 runs per game. I guess Joe (Black) Blanton hasn't been so lucky, with A's averaging less than 2 runs during his last 3 starts with him taking a losing decision twice. I think this game may be a low scoring one, though, but with Astros winning 4-3 or something like that.
Other leans and possible plays:
Cincinnati (+147)
Baltimore (-153)
Pittsburgh (-159)
...although I doubt I'll lay that much chalk so I guess only other possible play for me may be Cincy for similar or same stake as yesterday. I'll do some write-up if I end up playing it..
:cheers:
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