Wednesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 24 Wed 2024

12:20 PM
901Cincinnati Reds - Game #1F. Montas -R+1½
-195		+105O 8½
-105
902Atlanta Braves - Game #1A. Winans -R-1½
+170		-115U 8½
-115
12:35 PM
903St. Louis CardinalsM. Liberatore -L+1½
-195		+105O 8½
-116
904Pittsburgh PiratesM. Perez -L-1½
+170		-115U 8½
-104
03:10 PM
923Boston Red SoxN. Pivetta -R-1½
-105		-158O 10½
-118
924Colorado RockiesC. Quantrill -R+3 Markets+1½
-115		+145U 10½
-102
03:37 PM
911Houston AstrosH. Brown -R-1½
+110		-150O 8½
+100
912Oakland AthleticsJ. Sears -L+3 Markets+1½
-130		+138U 8½
-120
06:40 PM
915Detroit TigersJ. Flaherty -R+1½
-170		+132O 7½
+100
916Cleveland GuardiansT. Bibee -R+3 Markets-1½
+150		-144U 7½
-120
06:40 PM
925Baltimore OriolesC. McDermott -R-1½
+115		-145O 8½
-107
926Miami MarlinsE. Cabrera -R+1½
-135		+133U 8½
-113
06:45 PM
907San Diego PadresM. Waldron -R-1½
+132		-124O 8½
-120
908Washington NationalsM. Parker -L+3 Markets+1½
-152		+114U 8½
+100
07:05 PM
927New York MetsS. Manaea -L+1½
-150		+149O 8½
-109
928New York YankeesG. Cole -R+3 Markets-1½
+130		-163U 8½
-111
07:07 PM
917Tampa Bay RaysZ. Eflin -R-1½
+148		-113O 8½
-109
918Toronto Blue JaysY. Rodriguez -R+3 Markets+1½
-168		+103U 8½
-111
08:05 PM
919Chicago White SoxC. Flexen -R+1½
-110		+218O 8
-109
920Texas RangersN. Eovaldi -R+3 Markets-1½
-110		-245U 8
-111
08:10 PM
929Arizona DiamondbacksR. Nelson -R+1½
-178		+115O 9
-114
930Kansas City RoyalsM. Wacha -R+3 Markets-1½
+158		-125U 9
-106
10:10 PM
909San Francisco GiantsR. Ray -L+1½
-130		+174O 8
-105
910Los Angeles DodgersT. Glasnow -R+3 Markets-1½
+110		-190U 8
-115
 
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1st glance maybe braves offense can muster a little momentum in that bandbox during day against a very hit table montas. i'm sure they be overpriced but a ff or full game team total might be worth a look, i'll look closer into the numbers later on. they in a rain delay tonight? that might complicate things if turns into a dh or something, no idea bout the weather.

bunch of unnamed starters at moment for just 4-5 games out the asb, what's up w that? major pitching shortage? lol

for as much i love me some 1st 5 unders in seattle i'm not sure if day games play out the same way? i don't recall capping many daytime games in seattle other than sundays and i've usually bled the ff under dry by that point in series, lol.

1st thought off top my head Hunter brown will squash this little hot streak oakland offense been on. 1sr 5 under maybe?

its gonna be very tough not to play tigers at that price! crazy thing the 1st move was 10 cents more to cle, why? last couple weeks i feel like i see something in tigers others dont want to maybe? when skubal pitches they get the kind of respect they deserve but doesnt seem to matter they been kicking the guardians around like red headed step children! folks still want to believe cle is the much better team? i dont really buy that, we were all pretty surprised the way guardians offense clicked throughout the 1st half the season, on the opposite end the spectrum tigers offense was something out a horror flick in the 1st half. safe to say neither a totally accurate assessment of the quality or lack thereof from either team. in reality i don't think there a whole lot of difference in these teams. i have to dig closer into Bibee but as much i dislike him id be surprised if there isn't a case for Flaherty talent being superior. i dunno, while i look closer at things someone make a case why guardians are worthy that price vs a hot and determined tigers team who been trending the right way since before the break!!
 
TheDodgers said:
Got the NRFI with Pitt/St Louis yesterday and 2 of them No Home Runs yesterday. May try a few today, although kind of feels like a fishing expedition.
Click to expand...
Nice work. I clearly need to go back to simplifying things and avoid full games as I've already stated. Too much noise time after time makes full game capping a negative EV adventure.
 
Last edited:
On these now and waiting for NO Homerun line on Balt/Miami. Playing these very light. 2 cashed yesterday. If none cash today I will play light one more day than reconsider if worth the time.

No Homeruns

Houston/Oakland +550
St Louis/Pitt +600
Detroit/Cleveland +375
LAA/Seattle +550

Will add on Balt/Miami when line comes out. I know kind of rolling the dice with Oakland. As shitty as they are surprisingly ranked 4th in Homeruns
 
2daBank said:
1st glance maybe braves offense can muster a little momentum in that bandbox during day against a very hit table montas. i'm sure they be overpriced but a ff or full game team total might be worth a look, i'll look closer into the numbers later on. they in a rain delay tonight? that might complicate things if turns into a dh or something, no idea bout the weather.

bunch of unnamed starters at moment for just 4-5 games out the asb, what's up w that? major pitching shortage? lol

for as much i love me some 1st 5 unders in seattle i'm not sure if day games play out the same way? i don't recall capping many daytime games in seattle other than sundays and i've usually bled the ff under dry by that point in series, lol.

1st thought off top my head Hunter brown will squash this little hot streak oakland offense been on. 1sr 5 under maybe?

its gonna be very tough not to play tigers at that price! crazy thing the 1st move was 10 cents more to cle, why? last couple weeks i feel like i see something in tigers others dont want to maybe? when skubal pitches they get the kind of respect they deserve but doesnt seem to matter they been kicking the guardians around like red headed step children! folks still want to believe cle is the much better team? i dont really buy that, we were all pretty surprised the way guardians offense clicked throughout the 1st half the season, on the opposite end the spectrum tigers offense was something out a horror flick in the 1st half. safe to say neither a totally accurate assessment of the quality or lack thereof from either team. in reality i don't think there a whole lot of difference in these teams. i have to dig closer into Bibee but as much i dislike him id be surprised if there isn't a case for Flaherty talent being superior. i dunno, while i look closer at things someone make a case why guardians are worthy that price vs a hot and determined tigers team who been trending the right way since before the break!!
Click to expand...

Nice writeup, I'm big on Cards, Boston, Phils, Braves-1 in game 2 and reds game 1 with montas with both games going over, Detroit, Houston, Royals, Yanks and Baltimore. Also have Toronto and Padres winning tonight, and Brew crew beating the snot out of the cubs.
 
TheDodgers said:
On these now and waiting for NO Homerun line on Balt/Miami. Playing these very light. 2 cashed yesterday. If none cash today I will play light one more day than reconsider if worth the time.

No Homeruns

Houston/Oakland +550
St Louis/Pitt +600
Detroit/Cleveland +375
LAA/Seattle +550

Will add on Balt/Miami when line comes out. I know kind of rolling the dice with Oakland. As shitty as they are surprisingly ranked 4th in Homeruns
Click to expand...

shoot if you can hit 2,out of 4-5 most days you crushing it! even 6, hell you really only need to hit 25% to turn profit on most of them it seems.
 
peelpub94 said:
Nice work. I clearly need to go back to simplifying things and avoid full games as I've already stated. Too much noise time after time makes full game capping a negative EV adventure.
Click to expand...

pretty much only full games i play are dogs where prices just wrong, lot of goofy shit happens but long run i'm usually in the 50s percentage wise so worth it to me. i know ppl that do ok playing full game favs but ain't for me, i seriously don't hit at that much higher a clip w favs so makes no sense for me.
 
Both pitchers suck in this first Reds/Braves game. I took 1st 5 ATL tt o2.5 +120, now that it's gone live I'd still prefer ATL f5 -.5 +110. Montas sucks something bad and regressing I'll pay to see him hold this lineup down.
 
KJ said:
Both pitchers suck in this first Reds/Braves game. I took 1st 5 ATL tt o2.5 +120, now that it's gone live I'd still prefer ATL f5 -.5 +110. Montas sucks something bad and regressing I'll pay to see him hold this lineup down.
Click to expand...

i was planning on playing braves ff tt against montas but after it turned into dh i kinda lost interest, hate double headers. for some reason last night i was thinking it was in cincy, lack of sleep at damn hospital probably.
 
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tigers havnt lost a game by more than 1 run in the last 15 times out, july 4th was last time, since then they 11-4 with all 4 losses by 1 run, 4-2 vs guardians in this stretch both being 1 run losses. i'm on tigers ml, the +1.5 is to damn expensive i just thought it was interesting, think it speaks to how well tigers playing this month! and as good Bibee has been i think flaherty every bit as good if not better plus tigers have had success getting some runs off Bibee in both his starts vs them this season, one coming back when tigers were not hitting anything! price is more than right to keep riding with these guys.
 
KJ said:
Both pitchers suck in this first Reds/Braves game. I took 1st 5 ATL tt o2.5 +120, now that it's gone live I'd still prefer ATL f5 -.5 +110. Montas sucks something bad and regressing I'll pay to see him hold this lineup down.
Click to expand...

piece of cake, i shoulda stuck with my 1st thoughts to fade montas, stupid dh made me nervous, feel like those tend to play out strange. nice getting that 1st cash early in the day!
 
2daBank said:
tigers havnt lost a game by more than 1 run in the last 15 times out, july 4th was last time, since then they 11-4 with all 4 losses by 1 run, 4-2 vs guardians in this stretch both being 1 run losses. i'm on tigers ml, the +1.5 is to damn expensive i just thought it was interesting, think it speaks to how well tigers playing this month! and as good Bibee has been i think flaherty every bit as good if not better plus tigers have had success getting some runs off Bibee in both his starts vs them this season, one coming back when tigers were not hitting anything! price is more than right to keep riding with these guys.
Click to expand...
Can always find a prop or three to parlay that +1.5 with just in case
 
damn. i did not realize cardinals were trotting out one my favorite whipping boys today, in what goes down as another notch on cards management inability to win a trade we stuck with this gas can liberatore. missed a easy one there, that sucks. you know when they made that trade for this kid all i could think was do you numbskulls really think the rays of all teams would part ways with a young cost controlled lefty pitcher if he was any good? i sure didn't and he had lived up tou thoughts in being a freaking gas can while Arozarena has went on to be a cornerstone outfielder in rays success!! cards front office at it finest on display getting kicked around by pirates. really mad i missed a chance to fade this kid: lol.
 
of fucking course tigers gonna lose by 1. shoulda seen that from a mile away after i posted that shit. lol
 
when beaz leads off a inning it should be like intentional walk but opposite. manager just raises his hand and tigers concede a out! lmao
 
KJ said:
He's the best I've seen this year and it's not close
Click to expand...

fucker throwing 100mph cutters and 93mph sliders. era is like .75, unhittable. surprised he don't k a little more but cutters not high k pitch. only 6 walks on season also!
 
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Btw anyone tailing BC on the Mexican League, that Mexico City team got run down last night after being up 3-0. They are complete beasts. It's obvious why he's chasing them...every MF in that lineup 1-9 is hitting at least .300 lol. Watching the live betting was pretty entertaining down to the last out, like it was expected they'd tie it up. Doubt they lose back to back, tee off in 8 minutes. fair to include or just bet straight up tonight imo
 
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