Wednesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
11:35 AM
925Houston AstrosJ. Urquidy -R-1½
+105		-150O 9
-110
926Pittsburgh PiratesR. Hill -L+1 Markets+1½
-125		+139U 9
-110
12:10 PM
901San Diego PadresB. Snell -L-105O 8
-125
902New York MetsT. Megill -R+1 Markets-105U 8
+105
12:10 PM
915Chicago White SoxL. Giolito -R+1½
-155		+139O 8
-121
916Minnesota TwinsS. Gray -R+1 Markets-1½
+135		-151U 8
+101
01:20 PM
927Seattle MarinersL. Gilbert -R-115
928Chicago CubsM. Stroman -R+1 Markets+105
02:10 PM
903St. Louis CardinalsJ. Flaherty -R-1½
-120		-165O 12½
-119
904Colorado RockiesJ. Urena -R+1 Markets+1½
+100		+152U 12½
-101
03:05 PM
907Miami MarlinsE. Cabrera -R+1½
-132		+166O 7½
-125
908Philadelphia PhilliesZ. Wheeler -R+1 Markets-1½
+112		-181U 7½
+105
03:07 PM
929Washington NationalsM. Gore -L+1½
-130		+152O 9½
-104
930Los Angeles AngelsG. Canning -R+1 Markets-1½
+110		-165U 9½
-116
05:35 PM
917Oakland AthleticsK. Waldichuk -L+1½
-136		+151O 8½
-116
918Baltimore OriolesD. Kremer -R+1 Markets-1½
+116		-164U 8½
-104
06:07 PM
921Detroit TigersE. Rodriguez -L+1½
+110		+220O 8½
-120
922Toronto Blue JaysK. Gausman -R+1 Markets-1½
-130		-245U 8½
+100
06:20 PM
909Cincinnati RedsH. Greene -R+1½
-108		+212O 8
-105
910Atlanta BravesS. Strider -R+1 Markets-1½
-112		-235U 8
-115
07:05 PM
923Kansas City RoyalsB. Keller -R+1½
-136		+155O 8½
-105
924Texas RangersN. Eovaldi -R+1 Markets-1½
+116		-168U 8½
-115
08:45 PM
911Los Angeles DodgersC. Kershaw -L-1½
+100		-162O 8
+100
912San Francisco GiantsA. Cobb -R+1 Markets+1½
-120		+149U 8
-120
 
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It hurts my brain to think about how bad it could get at coors if flaherty continues walking 2 hitters a inning! Lmao. It’s Fuckin insane that he has a 1.80 era with 13 walks in 10 innings! I have no clue what the fuck to make of that? Not many pitchers could walk that many and manage to only give up 2 runs, his velo is down several ticks from his best days also. This just reeks of him getting pasted here don’t it? And they freaking -160? Yea right:, cards could def smash Urena. Over 12,5 probably the best play but tough not to at least think bout rox.
 
2daBank said:
It hurts my brain to think about how bad it could get at coors if flaherty continues walking 2 hitters a inning! Lmao. It’s Fuckin insane that he has a 1.80 era with 13 walks in 10 innings! I have no clue what the fuck to make of that? Not many pitchers could walk that many and manage to only give up 2 runs, his velo is down several ticks from his best days also. This just reeks of him getting pasted here don’t it? And they freaking -160? Yea right:, cards could def smash Urena. Over 12,5 probably the best play but tough not to at least think bout rox.
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Just posted in in-game...Urena velo down on 3 of 4 pitches relative to last year and the other pitch, his slider, is way down in spin rate. That explains why Urena been getting shelled I guess.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Just posted in in-game...Urena velo down on 3 of 4 pitches relative to last year and the other pitch, his slider, is way down in spin rate. That explains why Urena been getting shelled I guess.
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Not often you can say 12.5 feels short. Lol
 
Everything kinda stinks bout the oak/balty game. Those pitchers and weather scream over 8.5. It’s redic how awful waldichuck been, a reasonable person would think there no way he can continue w freaking 14 era, over 40% hr/fb rate, less than 20% his pitches getting strikes. Can it stay this bad? He is facing a O’s offense that has a team ops over .900 vs lhp . Why stop playing the run line against the A’s is way I see it. 8 their 9 losses by 2+, 7 of 9 by 4+, been outscored 48-14 this road trip! +105 to take balty-1.5, super square but just feels like one thsss streaks ya just keep playing until it stops. A’s showed some early life yesterday getting out to a 7-3 lead and still lost 12-8., this not usually my thing but I just can’t see any reason to stop fading them till they find a way to win some games. The 8.5 is suspicious so maybe this be the day, early money came in on A’s, Kremer been bad also but why bet Oakland? I rather ride out the streak and pile up wins than lose god knows how many before getting 1 W!
 
Another damning thing for both pitchers in Baltimore we have warn temps and fairly strong breeze blowing out for 2 pitchers who lean more to fly ball types. Already feels square playing o’s rl I dunno if I can throw the over in there? Both pitchers with over 10 era’s! They could have made this 9.5 or 10 and I wouldn’t have thought anything bout it, that strange.
 
Who had houston below .500 while pirates sitting 7-4 entering this game! Man I love baseball! Pirates been handing the AL, swept the Red Sox, took 2 of 3 vs white Sox, playing the rubber match vs Stros after splitting the 1st 2 games. I think houston be fine but I been pointing out all year their lineup doesn’t look nearly as imposing as years past, still strong up top but there a lot of breathing room for pitchers in the bottom half the lineup. They have been way better vs lhp tho and we all know how bad I hate rich hill, I can’t believe this guy still in the league!! Stros should hit him.

As always w pirates I look to play them against rhp who struggle w lefties. In his career Urquidy actually has pretty mean reverse splits, lefties only have a .606 ops while righties are way up at .770!! It hasn’t started out that way this season but 4 years of evidence much more meaningful than the 11 AB’s lefties have had vs him this season. Feeling kinda square so far on this card cause I think houston Ff -.5 where I want to be. Or even laying the -1.5 for game.
 
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Astros basically have 3 good hitters in their lineup. The rest are average/below average. No Verlander, their team is significantly different right now.
 
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Then when they decide to sit Yordan it looks like this with Brantley and Altuve injured.

19a678fc756d26e2a82fa167b0de71e1.png
 
Really Strong line for twins imo. So far Giolito has been the same disappointing garbage he was last season. This season could be even worse as his swinging strike rate plummeting a few more percent from last years career low mark. Im not the mood to investigate or try to figure out the why, who cares, just know this ain’t the guy we think of him as. I thought he could bounce back this year, im
Losing patients tho, with the whole team quite frankly, I saw Tim anderson left game early with “knee soreness”, let the injuries begin! Lol. At this point or even a month from now there plenty of teams I’ll give way more of a leash as to what i think they are or could be, not so much with this team cause I’ve seen it far to often, they 5-7 which would be fine but with Giolito looking the way he has, kopech still mostly looking like a guy better served in the pen than starter, the depth issues that prob start to come into play.

Unfortunately none of this appears to be a secret with way they being lined the last few series. This line pretty much says how superior twins are. Opposite of Giolito I think Sonny Gray has actually looked as good I’ve seen him in several years to start out. Maybe last year Could have been partly been the reduced spring but he wasn’t pitching deep into games, never seemed like he got into a consistent groove the way he has started out this year. 2 starts could be a fluke, he wasn’t great in start 1 but did go 5 scoreless despite 4 walks to 1k, unlike Flaherty he cleaned it up in 2nd start and was dominant against houston throwing 7 innings of 1 run ball with 13:1 k:bb!! his pitch mix has been vastly different to start this year, he only throwing around 30% fastball/sinker compared to the 50-60% during most his career, throwing the slider, curve, change all more than ever before. Again it still very early but something to keep a eye on.


I dunno what all that means far as making a bet today? Lol. Twins ain’t hitting much, down at bottom 5ish in lot of categories. They got some guys I think will start hitting, obviously Correa gonna hit (dunno if he playing or not?) , few others that will eventually. Their pitching staff is fantastic tho, I’m not sure they have a true ace but they have at least 3 high end 2s, maybe 4! They have 5 guys who no worse than a 3 on most any staff!! They have built the pen up to being really good. I put a lot of time into looking at both these teams and pitchers and not sure there any great bet here?? I think the line is tough to bet but it justified. Im
Not loving this card so far as I lean mostly favs, I don’t like playing many favs!!
 
peelpub94 said:
Then when they decide to sit Yordan it looks like this with Brantley and Altuve injured.

19a678fc756d26e2a82fa167b0de71e1.png
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Jfc. I noticed right out the gates the bottom half the order was significantly weaker than years past but this worse than that! Lol. Unfortunately there little to no chance I can trust rich hill.
 
Stroman vs Gilbert is heavy under lean. But wind blowing out in wrigley. What's the play ?

Curious the over under rates in wrigley with wind 15 mph
 
I didht like rich hill in his prime, I can’t believe he still in the league. He has beaten me a bunch, lot like kuechal. Some these guys I just can’t cap. I doubt he has fallen off much from last year where he was fairly close to a average pitcher I’d say, somehow. Maybe there some value in this under? I’m not sure I have the guts tho? I think I’d actually play full game under 9.5 before playing 1st 5, just in case one starter does struggle either pen could come in and settle things down against these lineups I think.
 
peelpub94 said:
Astros basically have 3 good hitters in their lineup. The rest are average/below average. No Verlander, their team is significantly different right now.
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Kind of feel that way about every team 3 good guys and everyone else average I don't know. Teams be looking like boston putting up double digit runs vs tigers then can't hit next series. Braves. Phillies. Mets. Etc Feel same way

Houston had a stretch last year they weren't hitting. Led mlb in cashing unders as a team.
 
EL CAPO said:
Stroman vs Gilbert is heavy under lean. But wind blowing out in wrigley. What's the play ?

Curious the over under rates in wrigley with wind 15 mph
Click to expand...

Not sure, we have warmer temps and wind blowing out all around today tho. I always look for unders in these wrigley wind games if I get right pitchers, stroman missing bats at a good rate this far, not sure that continues but he always been heavy ground ball guy so that def what we want here.

Gilbert always gonna miss bats, he does pitch up a lot tho. I dunno if he has changed things up this year or it just a 2 game odd sample that his gb rate is better than 2:1?

Swanson left game yesterday which hurt scrubbies offense if he out. Im with you I’d lean Ff under most likely more so than game.
 
2daBank said:
Not sure, we have warmer temps and wind blowing out all around today tho. I always look for unders in these wrigley wind games if I get right pitchers, stroman missing bats at a good rate this far, not sure that continues but he always been heavy ground ball guy so that def what we want here.

Gilbert always gonna miss bats, he does pitch up a lot tho. I dunno if he has changed things up this year or it just a 2 game odd sample that his gb rate is better than 2:1?

Swanson left game yesterday which hurt scrubbies offense if he out. Im with you I’d lean Ff under most likely more so than game.
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Coors field wind blowing out too. With those pitchers think I may have to take the over even tho number crazy
 
Guy I'm looking to fade today is Cabrera marlins. 13 walls last 2 outings. 7 walks before being pulled in 2nd inning last game...walking guys with bases loaded type control
 
But I kind of feel like Flaherty could lower his walk rate? If he‘s starting out ahead of the count and plate-nibbling, then the fix for him seems much simpler than Urena with his declines in velo and spin.
 
EL CAPO said:
Coors field wind blowing out too. With those pitchers think I may have to take the over even tho number crazy
Click to expand...


I already played over 12.5 at coors, see my 1st post in thread. The scary thing for me is overs I love are not typically my best bets. I’d even think bout wheeling that thing with alternate overs, 14-15–16 at plus whatever? That just greedy, prob smartest to just put whatever on the regular number, lol.

The total in Baltimore is really odd also, warm, nice wind out and look at those pitchers. That one stinks to high hell tho, that one feels like the total sucker over. The over at coors is just another day w a normal type coors total. Just so happens flaherty walking so many guys if that keeps up he will finally pay for it today. I don’t think cards pen will lock anything down after he out. Cards should def hit Urena the way he going. Baltimore both those pitchers era’s have to come down sooner than later. That not really the case w the guys at coors.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
But I kind of feel like Flaherty could lower his walk rate? If he‘s starting out ahead of the count and plate-nibbling, then the fix for him seems much simpler than Urena with his declines in velo and spin.
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Imo this might be a nice argument for Cards if they were dogs, but they’re favored heavily, which I can‘t get on board with especially given their overall team rhythm
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Imo this might be a nice argument for Cards if they were dogs, but they’re favored heavily, which I can‘t get on board with especially given their overall team rhythm
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There other favs I like significantly more than cards at that price, If I wanted to play bunch of favs, lol.

Flaherty been around so long you would think he has pitched everywhere but he been hurt more than healthy! never pitched at Coors, not sure he can locate or if he just not confident enough to throw strikes and nibbling? what exactly the problem is im sure I don’t know but there no chance I’m laying -160s to trust he figures it out in a park lots of guys struggle. The only way to back cards against Urena Is 1st 5 team total imo. No way I want any part of flaherty here. Honestly I’m not even sure he close to being a front end starter anymore? 2019 he threw 196 innings, from then to now all his stuff has basically fallen off around the clip we talking bout Urena this season, it just been more gradual so less noticeable maybe? Plus the glaring problem w walks covering up other things. There could be a reason he doesn’t want to come over the plate? In his limited games last year he was walking more than 5 per 9 innings, this isn’t a brand new thing, it just has gotten worse. I dunno what he is anymore?
 
2daBank said:
Because it blows harder continuously? Other than that I’m not sure how you mean?
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They only make the total at Wrigley after a wind report. That total comes out after everyone else. Why? Because its so important they woudln't think of putting out a total without a decent grasp on the wind. Why? Because the wind is more highly correlated to the total there than anywhere else in MLB. In other words, the wind impacts play the most....I don't have the exact numbers but if you poke around on this topic you'll see that I'm right...Anecdotally, I have been to Wrigley probably 25 games in my life and I think the IN wind is actually the biggest factor...but I can only remember one game I went to with a dead OUT wind....
 
Marsski said:
They only make the total at Wrigley after a wind report. That total comes out after everyone else. Why? Because its so important they woudln't think of putting out a total without a decent grasp on the wind. Why? Because the wind is more highly correlated to the total there than anywhere else in MLB. In other words, the wind impacts play the most....I don't have the exact numbers but if you poke around on this topic you'll see that I'm right...Anecdotally, I have been to Wrigley probably 25 games in my life and I think the IN wind is actually the biggest factor...but I can only remember one game I went to with a dead OUT wind....
Click to expand...

I kinda disagree bro. They wait for the total because the wind at wrigley is unpredictable and often blows incredibly hard. I don’t believe the exact same amount of wind makes the ball carry more there than other places. The thing is there a ton of wind there, it whips around all different directions on a given day. I dunno if the park configuration makes wind catch the ball more there? That possible but the reason they wait cause the wind changes so much and blows so hard if they put totals out overnight they wouldn’t have any idea which direction wind was blowing. I think it just the wind doesn’t blow consistently as hard anywhere else than here, not that the wind effects the ball more. I could be wrong tho.
 
Basically wind a bigger factor at Wrigley cause it blows harder, more often, and different directions, not to mention it apparently impossible to predict before hand. I don’t think if we have 20mph wind there or in cincy it actually effects the carry differently tho.
 
Anyone tracking get -away-days this season? I forgot at the start if the season and hoping someone has up to date information that they would share.
 
I don’t have the energy to dig into props today., guess im not totally recovered from that 12 hours of misery. Now the wife has that bug today, feel bad I gave it to her, just went out and got her bunch of medicine and Gatorade to hopefully get her thru the day.

Flaherty not only pitcher with walk issues, check out fish starter Cabrera! This Mfer has walked 13 in 6 innings!! Damn.
 
Cabrera didn’t even give up a hit last game in 2.2 innings but gave up 2 runs on 7 walks!! Jfc. That followed up a 4 inning 6 walk game. Both against the Mets.
 
2daBank said:
I kinda disagree bro. They wait for the total because the wind at wrigley is unpredictable and often blows incredibly hard. I don’t believe the exact same amount of wind makes the ball carry more there than other places. The thing is there a ton of wind there, it whips around all different directions on a given day. I dunno if the park configuration makes wind catch the ball more there? That possible but the reason they wait cause the wind changes so much and blows so hard if they put totals out overnight they wouldn’t have any idea which direction wind was blowing. I think it just the wind doesn’t blow consistently as hard anywhere else than here, not that the wind effects the ball more. I could be wrong tho.
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I think you're wrong, but I can't prove it. It has to do with park config and wind patterns. I take your point on varying wind direction though.
 
Rays changed starters from last night got a rook...boston bats due and sale been bad. Think I'll look at the over
 
Marsski said:
I think you're wrong, but I can't prove it. It has to do with park config and wind patterns. I take your point on varying wind direction though.
Click to expand...

As I said im not sure about the idea on park config potentially giving it more effect, maybe it catches balls lower down than other parks? I know the reason books wait on putting totals out cause the direction changes and unpredictability. It certainly fair to say wind plays more a role at Wrigley than anyplace else but I think it just cause how often and how much they get. I’d think the reds park would probably play similar assuming they had the same amount of wind on a given day.

You remember way back in the day at the old rangers park? they eventually ended up putting in something to block the wind but that stadium config was the craziest I was aware of, they had those days where the wind would be blowing in hard from right if you looked at wind direction but it somehow created a jet stream out of the park. We would get crazy totals like 14-16, they would get pounded over and be the highest scoring games. I was so pissed off when they put a scoreboard or something in to block the wind from coming in, obviously they in a new place now that seems to be very pitched friendly but those games in that old stadium were the most wind effected Games I recall even trumping some the times at Wrigley. Wrigley can cause as many low scoring as high which is different. I have seen days it was blowing in hard and guys could still hit it out long as it was a low liner, if you got it to far up in air it wasn’t going anywhere.
 
Plenty of information on the internet available regarding the impact of wind conditions at Wrigley.
 
2daBank said:
As I said im not sure about the idea on park config potentially giving it more effect, maybe it catches balls lower down than other parks? I know the reason books wait on putting totals out cause the direction changes and unpredictability. It certainly fair to say wind plays more a role at Wrigley than anyplace else but I think it just cause how often and how much they get. I’d think the reds park would probably play similar assuming they had the same amount of wind on a given day.

You remember way back in the day at the old rangers park? they eventually ended up putting in something to block the wind but that stadium config was the craziest I was aware of, they had those days where the wind would be blowing in hard from right if you looked at wind direction but it somehow created a jet stream out of the park. We would get crazy totals like 14-16, they would get pounded over and be the highest scoring games. I was so pissed off when they put a scoreboard or something in to block the wind from coming in, obviously they in a new place now that seems to be very pitched friendly but those games in that old stadium were the most wind effected Games I recall even trumping some the times at Wrigley. Wrigley can cause as many low scoring as high which is different. I have seen days it was blowing in hard and guys could still hit it out long as it was a low liner, if you got it to far up in air it wasn’t going anywhere.
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The old Texas wind tunnel, oh yeah.

That's why I said anecdotally I think it seems wind IN matters more at Wrigley...low line drives only way to get it out...does anyone offer game HRs over/under lines? Under woudl be worth a bet on IN days...
 
bostonshamrock said:
View attachment 73039
eyeing this at caesars - phils not walking much though..
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Tough for me to say, lot of things I don’t feel like I need to have watched to make a educated guess. When it comes to crazy high walk totals and this early in season i would like to have actually seen guy pitching, or maybe try to find some scouting reports from someone who has. He talented, one way or another he not gonna keep walking guys at this clip, either cause he fixes it or he won’t be starting games, lol.

Control never been a strength, last year he walked 3+ in 8 of 14 starts, faced Philly twice, @ Philly 5.2 innings 2 walks, in Miami 5.1 and 3 walks. You wouldn’t think he comes out and walks freaking 5-6 guys right away again, It have to be a game he good enough to go 5 innings and walks 3-4. My concern would be he over adjust and starts throwing some meatballs, that could get him ran from game early with wind blowing out in that bandbox against a free swinging team. I recall marlins lefty rogers last year doing something similar to that in Atlanta one game when his walks had been piling up previously, he got rocked. Maybe some Home run props! Turner was blasting everything in the WBC and hasn’t hit one yet! Just a thought, lol.
 
The under idea in Pittsburg is looking pretty good thus far. Shame it was just a idea. Lol. Rich hill special, hits all over but somehow only 1 run allowed.
 
Once you get past 4 in houston lineup there just isn’t much to worry about. Cardinals lineup is so much better than that. Shame they can’t pitch anymore.
 
Marsski said:
They only make the total at Wrigley after a wind report. That total comes out after everyone else. Why? Because its so important they woudln't think of putting out a total without a decent grasp on the wind. Why? Because the wind is more highly correlated to the total there than anywhere else in MLB. In other words, the wind impacts play the most....I don't have the exact numbers but if you poke around on this topic you'll see that I'm right...Anecdotally, I have been to Wrigley probably 25 games in my life and I think the IN wind is actually the biggest factor...but I can only remember one game I went to with a dead OUT wind....
Click to expand...
there's this pro bettor named spanky who used to do a ton of podcasts interviewing old school pro bettors. i remember one guy saying that him and his boss had a fixation on wrigley field for the wind. they were trying to figure out what mph the wind blew in or out to bet the totals and it became an obsession, so much so that they had a guy on their payroll who's job was to sit in the bleachers and let them know the winds before the game. they flew him out there and every home game he had to report the wind conditions, (this was obviously before we have all the info we have now). well, they kept getting the totals wrong. they also figured out there was a street camera that they could access that would give them a view of where the guy sat. they come to find out this guy wasn't even sitting in the seats they bought him and was lying the whole time. ha. so they set him up at a job as a bus boy, told him you go to work and you go to these games. we don't care what you do after the game starts, and if your boss tells you that you need to work during the game, you make something up but you will work and you will go to these games and accurately tell us what is going on. he said they never could quite figure it out and after a couple months, they ditched the obsession. i know this doesn't help but it's a hilarious story. i tried to find it but there's so many podcasts, i'll never remember. it's out there, though
 
Oldirtybaztid said:
there's this pro bettor named spanky who used to do a ton of podcasts interviewing old school pro bettors. i remember one guy saying that him and his boss had a fixation on wrigley field for the wind. they were trying to figure out what mph the wind blew in or out to bet the totals and it became an obsession, so much so that they had a guy on their payroll who's job was to sit in the bleachers and let them know the winds before the game. they flew him out there and every home game he had to report the wind conditions, (this was obviously before we have all the info we have now). well, they kept getting the totals wrong. they also figured out there was a street camera that they could access that would give them a view of where the guy sat. they come to find out this guy wasn't even sitting in the seats they bought him and was lying the whole time. ha. so they set him up at a job as a bus boy, told him you go to work and you go to these games. we don't care what you do after the game starts, and if your boss tells you that you need to work during the game, you make something up but you will work and you will go to these games and accurately tell us what is going on. he said they never could quite figure it out and after a couple months, they ditched the obsession. i know this doesn't help but it's a hilarious story. i tried to find it but there's so many podcasts, i'll never remember. it's out there, though
Click to expand...
I love it. There's a camera feed now you can watch now that gives you real time video right outside the park...
 
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