Wednesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 6 Wed 2022

01:10 PM
963Cleveland GuardiansS. Bieber -R-1½
+105		-171O 7½
+100
964Detroit TigersM. Pineda -R+1½
-125		+157U 7½
-120
02:10 PM
951Chicago CubsA. Sampson -R+1½
+100		+209O 8
+100
952Milwaukee BrewersC. Burnes -R-1½
-120		-231U 8
-120
02:10 PM
965Minnesota TwinsJ. Ryan -R+1½
-210		-101O 8½
+100
966Chicago White SoxL. Lynn -R-1½
+180		-109U 8½
-120
03:37 PM
967Toronto Blue JaysJ. Berrios -R-1½
-110		-177O 8
-120
968Oakland AthleticsJ. Kaprielian -R+1½
-110		+163U 8
+100
06:40 PM
953New York MetsD. Peterson -L-1½
+100		-163O 9½
-110
954Cincinnati RedsG. Ashcraft -R+1½
-120		+150U 9½
-110
06:40 PM
975Los Angeles AngelsS. Ohtani -R-1½
+105		-165O 7
-110
976Miami MarlinsT. Rogers -L+1½
-125		+152U 7
-110
07:05 PM
969Texas RangersG. Otto -R-1½
+135		-110O 9½
-110
970Baltimore OriolesS. Watkins -R+1½
-155		+100U 9½
-110
07:10 PM
971Tampa Bay RaysC. Kluber -R+1½
-180		+111O 9
-120
972Boston Red SoxB. Bello -R-1½
+160		-121U 9
+100
07:20 PM
957St. Louis CardinalsM. Mikolas -R+1½
-125		+155O 8½
-105
958Atlanta BravesM. Fried -L-1½
+105		-168U 8½
-115
08:10 PM
973Kansas City RoyalsB. Keller -R+1½
+110		+233O 8½
+108
974Houston AstrosC. Javier -R-1½
-130		-260U 8½
-128
09:40 PM
959San Francisco GiantsA. Cobb -R-1½
+130		-121O 8½
-105
960Arizona DiamondbacksM. Kelly -R+1½
-150		+111U 8½
-115
 
I’m not gonna be able to play any the day games for sure, hoping I can maybe get to casino for some the night, just depends how things go. Anyways the WIFE has to work in morning so she asleep and I’m bored, I’m gonna look at card anyways, even tho it gonna kill me not to bet them if I find plays and see them hit, might as well try and stay sharp and hopefully might be able to help someone else out!

Man, of course I’m missing Burnes be Scrubbies! K total is 8.5 +115 to over right now! Not sure I’ve played a 8.5 all year but I can tell ya right now I’d play it blind (get it, lol) obviously be smart to make sure he good in the day, home, against cubs but I can’t imagine there any issues there! I just watched cubs in gm1 this series swing and miss more than 20x against Lauer throwing heart of the plate 93-94 mph heat with little to no movement on it!! They gonna have a nightmare of a time making contact with Burnes upper 90s filthy cutter!!! IF he on his game I don’t think it crazy to say he could punch out 15+!!!!!
 
Might even luck out and see Burnes number get bet down to 7.5, I would hammer that number! Pisses me off the casino stays open super late but book closes at freaking 11, not sure why they couldn’t leave kiosk on? Stupid. Im so close to loading some money online and driving across the river so I can bet these!! Lol. Night driving still kinda tough but I can manage!!
 
Looks like they calling for storms throughout day in Chicago. I just got fucked the other night with the bull shit 3-4 hour delay in atl (can’t fucjing believe they waited that out!) After 4th inning to knock the starters out. Obviously don’t want any part of that shit but if the forecast changes to where you can tell the game gonna go off with at least 3 hours without delays I would absolutely play Lynn ov 5.5 k’s anx I’d look at Ryan ov 4.5 also, I just noticed the forecast after i capped lynn and decided no point of looking closer at Ryan.
 
Bieber has been freaking microscopic vs tigers and in Detroit. At comerica he 6-1 with a freaking 1.79 era over his career. Tigers still have the worst ops in baseball vs rhp, gotta think Biebs cruises well into the 7th here in a game his team really needs. Ov 18.5 outs +105 feels like a really strong bet.
 
2daBank said:
Bieber has been freaking microscopic vs tigers and in Detroit. At comerica he 6-1 with a freaking 1.79 era over his career. Tigers still have the worst ops in baseball vs rhp, gotta think Biebs cruises well into the 7th here in a game his team really needs. Ov 18.5 outs +105 feels like a really strong bet.
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Gonna trust your insight, been trying to find something to parlay Kyrgios ML with - gets it to +102
 
King Slap said:
If you think Burns is a lock it makes it +180 @2daBank
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I don’t really like words like lock bro: I just make plays I think have a better chance of cashing than odds suggest. Dude striking out 9+ guys prob ain’t a lock, just think it wins more than +115 suggest. I’m little confused tho, Beibs total outs ov 18.5 parlayed w Burnes k’s at plus money should get you way better than +180 themselves, no idea what the tennis guy odds are.
 
Last edited:
Ryno14 said:
Think he probably just means Indians ML
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Well that not exactly “trusting my incite”, lol. Don’t get me wrong I think everyone should ultimately make their own decisions But I don’t want anybody thinking i like the tribe just cause I think Biebs gonna pitch well! doesn’t mean I think cle -184 a good play, I didn’t look real hard at Pineda vs tribe offense but my guess is I could def make a case to play tigers at that price seeing how they winning some games lately and cle has gone could, wouldn’t shock me at all if Pineda had a QS, I dunno how he been this year but I’ve always kinda liked him and cle not scoring runs of late.
 
I’d prefer Ff or full game under to playing cle In the -180s, but for me the best play is Biebs over outs at plus money.

After a quick glance at Pineda I’d think cle offense will continue struggling today.
 
Last edited:
askias said:
Two bets I usually make are Max Fried and the Yankees off a loss. Both are up today.
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Certainly not gonna try to make case for pirates to beat them 2x in a row. Lol.

I like Fried also but when I looked at this 4 game set w cards this was seriously the only game I liked cards chances of winning, I think -175 is too steep. Fried ain’t the typical lefty by any stretch and all the off speed he throws no doubt tough on cards but I still like cards vs lhp, don’t think they will rough him up or anything but think they can muster 2-3 runs and get him out game after 6. Expect Mikolas to give cards a similar performance so I just think we talking bout what prob a close game in the late innings, a game if cards don’t win they be staring at a 4 game sweep w Liberatore going 2marro and what he has shown. For me that means take the plus money or just pass.
 
I
2daBank said:
Certainly not gonna try to make case for pirates to beat them 2x in a row. Lol.

I like Fried also but when I looked at this 4 game set w cards this was seriously the only game I liked cards chances of winning, I think -175 is too steep. Fried ain’t the typical lefty by any stretch and all the off speed he throws no doubt tough on cards but I still like cards vs lhp, don’t think they will rough him up or anything but think they can muster 2-3 runs and get him out game after 6. Expect Mikolas to give cards a similar performance so I just think we talking bout what prob a close game in the late innings, a game if cards don’t win they be staring at a 4 game sweep w Liberatore going 2marro and what he has shown. For me that means take the plus money or just pass.
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would have thought the better opportunity the Cards would have had was against a struggling Ian Anderson last night. Take away the first inning last night and they probably had a good shot at it. I definitely lean the under 8.5 in tonight’s game.
 
VolsWhiskeyMaker said:
I

would have thought the better opportunity the Cards would have had was against a struggling Ian Anderson last night. Take away the first inning last night and they probably had a good shot at it. I definitely lean the under 8.5 in tonight’s game.
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I’m still not real sold on the kid cards started yesterday why I was looking at today being their best chance. Nothing to do with anderson/fried. Just expected atl to score yesterday and think Mikolas give them a much better shot. Agree w under lean but I havnt made sure ump ok.
 
B.A.R. said:
Tigers just playing very good right now.

9-7 with Greene since the call up.

Already a pair on Bieber early.
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t have bet against them at that price. I dunno if Beibs even gonna make it past 6?

It bout time. I got tired of waiting for them to play decent like I thought they would since start! What weird is they better but the guy I thought was my favorite pitcher on team been freaking awful!!
 
I feel way better bout all this shit after seeing surgeon today, the vision in my left wasn’t even as bad today, like some the fluid has cleared out or something they says. Plus he told me I could actually be working and doing shit just like a week after the surgery 2marro, he said my vision might still be blurry but hell the shit I was reading said it took way longer than that to heal. He did say he couldn’t like guarantee this would total fix the vision but he thinks pretty likely I’ll get it all back.
 
Damn. Tigers ran Biebs from game w all singles and walks: he don’t usually be walking ppl like that! I’m pretty surprised. I think Burnes gonna cake walk to 9k’s so guess it didn’t make much difference I couldn’t bet the day games, lol.,
 
It’s keeping me from trying to cap rest this card tho cause it way too much work to try and focus on numbers at the moment.
 
Man. Im pretty sure Sevi k prop opened at 6.5, think I saw it there this morning? So he got bet down to 5.5 and I get it, pirates starting 8 guys who either lefty or switch hitters!! Sevi doesn’t have bad numbers vs left handed hitters but they not nearly as good as against righties!! Still hard to think he doesn’t fan 6, he has hit that number in 7 his last 9 starts! Pirates might be all hitting from left side but they also have a lot of swing and miss in lineup and still only own a team ops of .665 vs rhp which is 27th in mlb! They fan almost 28% their AB’s vs rhp!
 
Damn. Sevi juice on ov 5.5 all way down to -140:, I think I’m passing, maybe I’ll kick myself later but something doesn’t feel right to me.
 
2daBank said:
Damn. Sevi juice on ov 5.5 all way down to -140:, I think I’m passing, maybe I’ll kick myself later but something doesn’t feel right to me.
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Odd looks likes light rain right now but doesn't look like it's going to be a game that starts and stops
 
KJ said:
Odd looks likes light rain right now but doesn't look like it's going to be a game that starts and stops
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i might kick myself but i left it alone.. i cant believe im saying this cause i been all over Javier and it has paid off but i dont like him tonight, shocked ive came to this conclusion and bothers me cause id say game overs are what i hit at a worse clip than anything but i like kc/hou ov 7.5.. Javier hasnt ever been a model of consistency and after a few brilliant starts i think this might be come down to earth time against a kc team that been putting up some runs early in games this series.. i also like your snakes ff and kelly over 17.5 innings.
 
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And I took pirates Keller ov 3.5k’s. I thought that game had earlier start Time and didht even cap him but I saw the 3.5 on board and think long as yanks don’t crush him he can punch 4
 
2daBank said:
And I took pirates Keller ov 3.5k’s. I thought that game had earlier start Time and didht even cap him but I saw the 3.5 on board and think long as yanks don’t crush him he can punch 4
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Got pushed back due to rain
 
Oh yea: goes along w the over in houston but kc Ff tt ov1.5 +140.. can’t believe I’m against Javier like this but I came up w kc scoring some off him., I was surprised seeing how I played him vs yanks and laa and he was fantastic. That said +140 for kc to plate 2 off him thru 5 a strong play imo
 
KJ said:
Got pushed back due to rain
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I assumed that was it. Feel like those can go either way. I’ve seen many a lineup be flat after sitting around waiting out the rain. He could suck also but Even if he does there still a path to 4 k’s long as he don’t just get rocked!
 
2daBank said:
I assumed that was it. Feel like those can go either way. I’ve seen many a lineup be flat after sitting around waiting out the rain. He could suck also but Even if he does there still a path to 4 k’s long as he don’t just get rocked!
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Helps that they didn't even go through warmups
 
KJ said:
Nice call on Royals tt, that was fast
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Just got done eating dinner and checked, almost shocked to see kc has 5 runs!! +140 on the team total just screamed ppl were overreacting to Javier last few!! It like when teams pay a guy huge money in his 30s (see laa and pujols contract, paying for past performance a bad idea!). The team who has guy for cheap during the prime years the team who won the ships! Javier was pretty nice plus money against yanks and his k total against laa was short!! So naturally they overvalue him today! I’ve had a really good bead on him for while now it feels like :)

Unfortunately I wasn’t so spot on bout cards getting few off Fried, lol: I wasn’t as high on cards play, I was content to pass but when I saw +180 after their half the 2nd inning it was too much to pass up. Mikolas Gave us about what I thought he would, I thought we could get a few off fried tho and beat the pen, I don’t see us beating the atl pen with a 4 run lead!
 
2daBank said:
Just got done eating dinner and checked, almost shocked to see kc has 5 runs!! +140 on the team total just screamed ppl were overreacting to Javier last few!! It like when teams pay a guy huge money in his 30s (see laa and pujols contract, paying for past performance a bad idea!). The team who has guy for cheap during the prime years the team who won the ships! Javier was pretty nice plus money against yanks and his k total against laa was short!! So naturally they overvalue him today! I’ve had a really good bead on him for while now it feels like :)

Unfortunately I wasn’t so spot on bout cards getting few off Fried, lol: I wasn’t as high on cards play, I was content to pass but when I saw +180 after their half the 2nd inning it was too much to pass up. Mikolas Gave us about what I thought he would, I thought we could get a few off fried tho and beat the pen, I don’t see us beating the atl pen with a 4 run lead!
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Keller pretty easy peasy too

Probably play the Kelly prop, not real sure if Snakes can hit Cobb. Have a feeling both go pretty deep
 
KJ said:
Keller pretty easy peasy too

Probably play the Kelly prop, not real sure if Snakes can hit Cobb. Have a feeling both go pretty deep
Click to expand...

I don’t like Cobb tonight.,,He hasn’t looked A1 since returning from IL, he was decent last time but holding down cws for 5 innings ain’t that hard for any big league rhp!! He damn sure didn’t dominate them like I thought a top form Cobb would. Also he has only made 1 start in zona in career and it was ugly, that in itself doesn’t mean much to me but I take those former cards pitchers opinions to heart way back when they talked bout not liking to pitch there havinv problems with grip, I’d think Cobb who relies on that splitter to put guys away might be effected worse than some if he isn’t getting grip as perfect he would like. Just a theory but I usually bet my theories, lol.
 
KJ said:
Keller pretty easy peasy too

Probably play the Kelly prop, not real sure if Snakes can hit Cobb. Have a feeling both go pretty deep
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Oh shit. I just saw Keller has fanned 7!! I shoulda bet more on that instead of messing w cards live! Lol
 
I’m usually higher on Keller than most, he generally doesn’t reward me; lol. think that 2x in a row tho!! Or last 2 times I’ve bet him anyways. He wasn’t good vs nats but he still hit his low k total!!


Fucjing cards had a chance to hang a crooked number three and blew it.
 
Took Kelly o17.5 (-150 so parlayed) with LAD -1.5, not a fan of home team -1.5 but that was the only legit parlay partner I could find
 
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