anyone want to try and explain what going on with Robbie Ray this year? he always been a primarily fastball/slider pitcher but prior to last season he had maintained throwing those 2 no more than 85% ish. last year his fastball/slider usage spiked to above 90% his pitches and he was obviously very effective, now this season he has abandoned throwing anything else as he throwing fastball/slider 98% of the time! im of the belief a starter really needs a 3rd pitch even if it just to give hitters something else to think about! this day and age with the amount of guessing/sitting on pitches going on you really putting yourself in a tough spot with a 2 pitch mix, that fine out the pen when you only facing guys 1x but when you starting and expected to get thru a lineup 2-3 times you really need that 3rd pitch! it could be last years success onluy throwing the 2 pitches was somewhat thanks to the fact guys still had to think about a 3rd offering and now they have enough info to know that isnt the case. It certainly not helping that his velo has ticked down more than 1mph as well.. so he more predictable and the heater has lost a bit of pep, that said the value given to his heater by fangraphs is basically the same as last season. His swinging strike rate has held firm at a elite 15.4% but his called strikes is the lowest in his career so guys not taking pitches in the zon (probably cause they know what coming!). The thing that has me still viewing him as a legit ace is the fact all these games he looks fantastic in all but 1 stinking inning, he has given up majority his runs in that one crooked number disaster inning! Lets look at this month alone, last time out against a hot boston lineup he went 6 innings giving up 4 runs which all came in the 3rd, start before that was 6 innings 5 runs allowed of which 4 came in the 4th inning, he went 6.2 innings vs tampa allowing 4 runs and you guessed it all 4 runs came in the 4th!! Miami was the only game i recall where all the damage came at the end of the start, all the others after he gives up the big inning he settles back down and pitches another few clean innings!! If these crooked number innings were coming in the 1st or at the end of his starts it would make far more sense but for most part that hasnt been the case!! It been the second time around when he between 51-75 pitches where the damage being done with opponents ops over .800 in this part the game, however when he breaks thru to his 76th pitch on and 3rd time thru lineup opponents ops drops to below .500!!! This isnt something that has aligned with the rest his career, i have no answer for it, maybe the fact he no longer has the threat the 3rd pitch? but wouldnt that lend itself to his struggles continuing from that point on instead of him regaining his form and looking elite again the 3rd time around? makes no sense to me..
He pitched 2 games vs oakland last season, a lineup i think we can agree was much better than what they have now, and he struck out 19 batters in 12.2 innings only allowing 3 runs total. He has been pretty damn good at Safeco (or whatever it called these days) holding opponents to a .579 ops pitching here as a Mariner. 7 of his 9 starts he has went 6 innings or more, his out prop is 17.5 (6 innings to cash) but heavy heavy juice but there still might be value at -195 considering it feels like at least 75% chance he pitches 6 innings!! i was really looking at his k prop at 7.5 and i lean to that but think im gonna make that a .5x straight bet then use the over 17.5 outs as part a round robin parlay!
