Wednesday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
May 11 Wed 2022

11:35 AM
953Milwaukee BrewersA. Houser -R-1½
-125		-197O 9
-115
954Cincinnati RedsV. Gutierrez -R+1½
+105		+181U 9
-105
11:35 AM
963Toronto Blue JaysJ. Berrios -R+1½
-165		+126O 7½
-108
964New York YankeesJ. Taillon -R-1½
+145		-136U 7½
-112
01:10 PM
965Cleveland GuardiansA. Civale -R+1½
-157		+124O 8½
-110
966Chicago White SoxV. Velasquez -R+1 Markets-1½
+137		-134U 8½
-110
02:40 PM
955Miami MarlinsS. Alcantara -R+1½
-205		-103O 7½
+100
956Arizona DiamondbacksM. Kelly -R-1½
+175		-107U 7½
-120
02:45 PM
957Colorado RockiesC. Kuhl -R+1½
-120		+185O 7½
-103
958San Francisco GiantsA. Cobb -R-1½
+100		-202U 7½
-117
06:05 PM
961New York MetsT. Megill -R-1½
-110		-177O 8
-110
962Washington NationalsA. Sanchez -R+1½
-110		+163U 8
-110
06:07 PM
967Tampa Bay RaysS. McClanahan -L+1½
-197		+110O 7
-110
968Los Angeles AngelsS. Ohtani -R-1½
+172		-120U 7
-110
06:10 PM
969Oakland AthleticsZ. Logue -L+1½
-190		+110O 7½
-122
970Detroit TigersJ. Wentz -L-1½
+165		-120U 7½
+102
06:20 PM
977Boston Red SoxN. Eovaldi -R+1½
-190		+113O 7½
-108
978Atlanta BravesI. Anderson -R-1½
+165		-123U 7½
-112
06:40 PM
971Houston AstrosJ. Urquidy -R-1½
+135		-118O 8
-105
972Minnesota TwinsC. Archer -R+1½
-155		+108U 8
-115
06:45 PM
979Baltimore OriolesS. Watkins -R+1½
-115		+184O 8
-103
980St. Louis CardinalsM. Mikolas -R-1½
-105		-201U 8
-117
 
askias said:
Something I’ll be watching with the Braves. The Braves are 2-16 when their opponent scores first. They are 12-1 when they score first.

The Braves are 0-16 when trailing after the sixth inning, 13-1 when leading after the sixth. (1-0 when tied.)
Click to expand...

Damn. Interesting stuff.
 
These dirty Mfers, we have day games but guess they can’t be bothered to post any pitcher props in a timely fashion!!

Every day that total in cincy creeping up a little more but still tempted to play over. Lately reds bats not the problem, houser has not fared real well at this park. These 2 have played 5 games in a row where they have scored no less than 9 runs.
 
Berrios under 17.5 outs. I got -115 but I see it has jumped up to -130 since my drive back home (I’m sure my little bets ain’t moving them! Lol). Still think it worth a play at that price cause I just don’t think it much more than a 40% chance he going 6 innings! Nothing really points to him havinv that long of a start, not much success in this park, never been a great day pitcher, despite his pitch counts being relatively low in all his starts jays don’t appear to want to have him facing lineups a 3rd time around. Those low pitch counts the only reason I’m giving him a 40% chance of completing 6, had he been closer to 100 pitches when he getting pulled from these outings I would say he has next to no chance of going this deep, the fact he struggling but still only been around 80 pitches does mean he could potentially pitch into the 7th if he having a good game.

As @VirginiaCavs pointed out in his thread his fastball getting hit and for some reason he throwing it more than he has since ‘16. Maybe you could argue pitch mix would be a simple fix but I’m not sure what going on with his other stuff either? for some reason the curve he has relied on his whole career is being classified as a slider by fangraphs this season, I dunno if it a completely different pitch or just doesn’t have the same movement? I do know it not yielding the same results his curve typically has throughout his career. I been giving guys the benefit of the doubt cause the shortened spring but I think we been to the point that excuse has passed. His swing and miss is drastically down while hard contact is up, Not a great recipe in the band box. His only 2 quality starts have come against a Red Sox lineup that been abysmal, he hadn’t completed 6 innings against any other team and that what he has to do to beat us here.
 
Berrios ops vs lefties has been crazy high this year also so if you like hitter props hicks, rizzo and maybe even Gallo worth a look (although I dunno I want any part of Gallo, if ya do I would think might as well get the plus money on home run rather than his total bases which I would play on the others).
 
2daBank said:
Berrios under 17.5 outs. I got -115 but I see it has jumped up to -130 since my drive back home (I’m sure my little bets ain’t moving them! Lol). Still think it worth a play at that price cause I just don’t think it much more than a 40% chance he going 6 innings! Nothing really points to him havinv that long of a start, not much success in this park, never been a great day pitcher, despite his pitch counts being relatively low in all his starts jays don’t appear to want to have him facing lineups a 3rd time around. Those low pitch counts the only reason I’m giving him a 40% chance of completing 6, had he been closer to 100 pitches when he getting pulled from these outings I would say he has next to no chance of going this deep, the fact he struggling but still only been around 80 pitches does mean he could potentially pitch into the 7th if he having a good game.

As @VirginiaCavs pointed out in his thread his fastball getting hit and for some reason he throwing it more than he has since ‘16. Maybe you could argue pitch mix would be a simple fix but I’m not sure what going on with his other stuff either? for some reason the curve he has relied on his whole career is being classified as a slider by fangraphs this season, I dunno if it a completely different pitch or just doesn’t have the same movement? I do know it not yielding the same results his curve typically has throughout his career. I been giving guys the benefit of the doubt cause the shortened spring but I think we been to the point that excuse has passed. His swing and miss is drastically down while hard contact is up, Not a great recipe in the band box. His only 2 quality starts have come against a Red Sox lineup that been abysmal, he hadn’t completed 6 innings against any other team and that what he has to do to beat us here.
Click to expand...

And this why I stay away from unders, majority my under leans seem to hit but the minute I play one the dude remembers how to pitch! Lol. Fuck, he cruising right along.
 
Anybody brave enough to back a not great pitcher against the cards? I dont like much of what i see from watkins, but the same could be said of the cards.
 
Smokeshow99 said:
Anybody brave enough to back a not great pitcher against the cards? I dont like much of what i see from watkins, but the same could be said of the cards.
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t be shocked if Watkins has success but I dunno if O’s will hit Mikolas? he been really good. Takes balls to trust pitcher as garbage Watkins but Ff under? I’m not sure cards could snore runs off me, im right handed!!
 
If they would post a outs prop for Mikolas I’d be inclined to play over 18.5 or lower. Don’t see yet and dunno if they will since they seem to pick and choose, I do like balty team total under 3.5, Mikolas should go 6-7 innings and we should get the good cards pen guys after him. I just don’t want to get involved with cards offense vs a gas can, who knows which wins out?
 
I love the idea of Mikolas outs but we see if they post it. Or maybe they will come higher than I expect, I assume it be 18.5, anything lower would be pound town.
 
2daBank said:
Berrios under 17.5 outs. I got -115 but I see it has jumped up to -130 since my drive back home (I’m sure my little bets ain’t moving them! Lol). Still think it worth a play at that price cause I just don’t think it much more than a 40% chance he going 6 innings! Nothing really points to him havinv that long of a start, not much success in this park, never been a great day pitcher, despite his pitch counts being relatively low in all his starts jays don’t appear to want to have him facing lineups a 3rd time around. Those low pitch counts the only reason I’m giving him a 40% chance of completing 6, had he been closer to 100 pitches when he getting pulled from these outings I would say he has next to no chance of going this deep, the fact he struggling but still only been around 80 pitches does mean he could potentially pitch into the 7th if he having a good game.

As @VirginiaCavs pointed out in his thread his fastball getting hit and for some reason he throwing it more than he has since ‘16. Maybe you could argue pitch mix would be a simple fix but I’m not sure what going on with his other stuff either? for some reason the curve he has relied on his whole career is being classified as a slider by fangraphs this season, I dunno if it a completely different pitch or just doesn’t have the same movement? I do know it not yielding the same results his curve typically has throughout his career. I been giving guys the benefit of the doubt cause the shortened spring but I think we been to the point that excuse has passed. His swing and miss is drastically down while hard contact is up, Not a great recipe in the band box. His only 2 quality starts have come against a Red Sox lineup that been abysmal, he hadn’t completed 6 innings against any other team and that what he has to do to beat us here.
Click to expand...

Another pitcher prop assassinated! Lol
 
Is the roof open in zona Today? Looks like pretty nice weather. I like both pitchers but if roof open for a day game 8 a very achievable number.
 
Seattle Ff -.5 -110. Cheaper than playing Gilbert k’s, really like him tho. This a pretty cheap price for him to out pitch what I assume gonna be 2-3 pitchers for Phillies thru 5 innings.
 
2daBank said:
Seattle Ff -.5 -110. Cheaper than playing Gilbert k’s, really like him tho. This a pretty cheap price for him to out pitch what I assume gonna be 2-3 pitchers for Phillies thru 5 innings.
Click to expand...
Buying high on gilbert? He had his worst start last time against vs. TB
 
I never saw them post a number for Mikolas total outs, I stuck around till bout 6:30 And never saw. Pricks, woulda been gravy! Hopefully the pen can handle 2 innings without giving much up, hate the lead so big I dunno if it be best guys now?
 
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