Wednesday Discussion/Lines

[JPicks]

Wed 1/14 705 Portland Trail Blazers -1 -103 OVER 193 -105
04:05 PM 706 Philadelphia 76ers +1 -107 UNDER 193 -105

Wed 1/14 707 New Jersey Nets +10 -110 OVER 187.5 -105
04:35 PM 708 Boston Celtics -10 +100 UNDER 187.5 -105

Wed 1/14 709 Washington Wizards +5 -108 OVER 199 -108
04:35 PM 710 New York Knicks -5 -102 UNDER 199 -102

Wed 1/14 713 Miami Heat +5.5 -105 OVER 196 +100
05:05 PM 714 Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 -105 UNDER 196 -110

Wed 1/14 717 Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 +100 OVER 199.5 -105
06:05 PM 718 San Antonio Spurs -2.5 -110 UNDER 199.5 -105

Wed 1/14 719 Sacramento Kings +5.5 -105 OVER 223.5 -105
07:35 PM 720 Golden State Warriors -5.5 -105 UNDER 223.5 -105

Wed 1/14 721 Atlanta Hawks -4.5 +103 OVER 195 -105
07:35 PM 722 Los Angeles Clippers +4.5 -113 UNDER 195 -105

 

[JPicks]

Big fan of the Spurs coming off the home loss against Orlando and the Lakers playing in Houston tonight. Total all seems a bit high for a Spurs game off of a loss.

Nets +10 looks good at a glance, but with Portland the next day at home and then hosting Boston they may throw in the towel before they get there. Meanwhile Boston has two days off after the game before going to play Jersey again.

Thunder ML vs the Jazz. The Jazz ALWAYS lose these types of games and the thunder are on the upswing.

Raptors? From a scheduling point I'm not sure where the Bulls find motivation here. 5 home games over 11 days, one day roadie to Toronto, then the next day at home vs. the Cavs before a day off and facing the Spurs at home. I don't know maybe they think they have to win it as the next two are losses, but being Toronto is a half game behind Chicago I'd figure they'd have the motivational edge.

Just some initial thoughts. Haven't looked at all the games.

 

[Killa]

Washington should win that game. Knicks being favored by 5 over any team in the league, on any night, is dead wrong. They suck as chalk, and they just blew their load winning in Nawlins, gotta figure that buys them a few games of lying down and sucking. Washington has the two best players on the floor and double season revenge. One cringes in looking at Washington's last few games, but fuck, if they don't at least take this game down to the wire, they might as well just pack it in. Not sure WTF is wrong with Caron (2 points the other night???) but he doesn't seem to have 2 horror show games in a row and he just had one last game. Jamison should put in work down low, nobody on the Knicks can cover him.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Jersey has gone their longest stretch this season w/out a 9+ point loss (7 games, next longest stretch is just 3 games, twice). Since Jan. 2nd they have either won SU and/or covered ATS (6 games), included in which are 3 OT games. Jersey, by it's own standards, is reaching the peak of a performance arc.

For the 1st time since KG & Raywol arrived, Boston has gone 6 games w/out recording a win by 9+ points w/KG present (they went 7 games last year w/out managing such a feat, but KG was absent for 4 of them).
Boston is 9-1 ATS their last 10 home games vs Eastern Conf opponents.
Boston is 5-1-1 ATS this season playing a 2nd straight home game off a road game. This will be their first instance of a consecutive home games since Dec. 21st-23rd, finally getting a break from venue switching ever since Xmas.

 

[Killa]

Wow, nice spot for Indy to get a W, assuming Detroit takes this game tonight.

 

[SF_capper]

indi will dominate detroit 2m. With Dunleavy back, they're different. I'm assuming the majority of the game is small ball vs small ball: AI,stuckey,Rip,Tay,Sheed vs TJ, Jack, Dunleavy, Granger, Murphy- edge goes to Indiana

 

[JPicks]

Jersey has gone their longest stretch this season w/out a 9+ point loss (7 games, next longest stretch is just 3 games, twice). Since Jan. 2nd they have either won SU and/or covered ATS (6 games), included in which are 3 OT games. Jersey, by it's own standards, is reaching the peak of a performance arc.

For the 1st time since KG & Raywol arrived, Boston has gone 6 games w/out recording a win by 9+ points w/KG present (they went 7 games last year w/out managing such a feat, but KG was absent for 4 of them).
Boston is 9-1 ATS their last 10 home games vs Eastern Conf opponents.
Boston is 5-1-1 ATS this season playing a 2nd straight home game off a road game. This will be their first instance of a consecutive home games since Dec. 21st-23rd, finally getting a break from venue switching ever since Xmas.

Great info BC. Think that game will draw in a good amount of nets money. I'm much more inclined to fade Boston on the road when they have a # of games played in a short period of time.

 

[Retburj13]

Bos plays tomm and then has next 2 off...so rest and practice is comin but i agree, this team is drained

 

[dstang26]

No Bucks at home with rest and Miami on b to b?

Spurs play improves if LA beats Houston tonight. Otherwise LA will be motivates to not go 0 for Texas

Boston shouldn't be laying 10 to any playoff teams until they right the ship

Agree great spot for Pacers long as Pistons win SU tonight

Thunder and GS in good spots...

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

good stuff dstand i agree boston cannot lay big points they are trying to win games and not concerned about blowouts anymore.

Boston will get hot again but they are in cruise mode--

expect cavs to also get into cruise mode at some point vs weaker teams

 

[linewatcher]

OKC does look appetizing tomorrow...underdog rules that series ATS...

 

[linewatcher]

dang, i just saw that okc is coming off b2b OT games...do you guys think this will hurt them?

 

[Killa]

good stuff dstand i agree boston cannot lay big points they are trying to win games and not concerned about blowouts anymore.

Boston will get hot again but they are in cruise mode--

expect cavs to also get into cruise mode at some point vs weaker teams

I disagree that Boston is in cruise mode, and I disagree even more about Cleveland eventually doing the same. Boston is not in cruise mode, they're just not playing well and their team has some weaknesses that have not been addressed. We all knew how motivated they would be to play Golden State 24 hours after losing to the Lakers, and they lost SU. With leaders like Garnett and Pierce, it's not a question of being on cruise control. If they're losing games, you better believe it's because they have weaknesses as a team and not for lack of effort or focus.

As for Cleveland, even more so, for the simple reason that the battle for home court is so huge. It's imperative that Cleveland get HCA, b/c they're so damn good at home in the playoffs. No time for letting up, or wasting losses on bad teams. This is why you're seeing them go into Memphis, go into Minnesota, go into Okie City, and win these games by DD's. If they get HCA, I think they know they're going to the Finals.

Not to mention the battle for HCA vs. the Lakers, which is even more important.

In this particular year, HCA is too important, and there's too much at stake, and it's too close, for these teams to blow any games vs. shitty teams.

 

[brewer]

^ good post

 

[BetCrimes1984]

With road teams now having covered 14 straight games, it's time to realise at minimum 1 home team will cover out of the 1st 4 games tomorrow (why the 1st 4? the longest unbroken run of road covers I've ever recorded is 17, therefore am taking it as a given we won't see 18 straight here).

1st game: DET @ IND - Detroit has not lost both games ATS in B2Bs this season, lost tonight, is off a SU loss & has Indy's measure SU. Indy is off a longish Western road trip, and is 1-5 ATS their last 6 at home. Can't say with any comfort the home team covers this game.

2nd game: POR @ PHI - POR has Roy back, and destroyed CHC as a result: a team refinding it's form (3-0 SU) after a 6-8 SU slump. PHI on a season high 4 game win streak & 4-0-1 ATS last 5, so their stocks are high. PHI is 2-4 ATS in home games vs teams w/winning records. Home team with a shot, but imo overvalued against a class team from the West.

3rd game: CHC @ TOR - CHC an abysmal 2-8 ATS last 10, 3-7 ATS last 10 as a Dog, 2-7 ATS last 9 on the road. Their last 7 SU losses have all been by 9+ pt margins. TOR 4-1 SU & ATS their last 5 games not against teams called the Celtics, 4-1 ATS the last 5 games Calderon has missed, and 4-1 ATS their last 5 games as a Fav. Clearly a game the home team is in with a strong shot of covering, since above & beyond the stats they're playing good ball while Shitcago isn't.

4th game: NJY @ BOS - my earlier post above lays out the scenarios entering this game. Another where the home team has a real shot of covering.

Like Toronto first, Boston, Indy (if the spread is big enough, with Detroit off 2 bad losses it arguably wont be) then Philly last.

 

[t-dot]

Problem with the Toronto game is the injury list.

If 1 or both of Calderone or JO start; this team is shot. They just revert back to their old form.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

why would o'Neal start after being out for 2+ weeks? Calderone coming back is no biggy imo. Last full game at home they had with him they beat Houston.

 

[tuck321]

Took the Clippers plus 4.5 and will add ml when available. Bias? Possible, I am fond of this team but mostly just interested in making money. Atlanta has given up over 50% shooting in 4 of their last 5 starts. Without Horford their rebounding and their defense have taken a major hit. They are playing worst 4 in 6 and except for the expected courtesy cover by the Suns (who are not going to be very courteous in the near future) they would have failed to cover 6 in a row. The spot they are in now is very similar to the spot the Clippers were in. Some times you just need some rest. Time to sleep. Practice defense and run plays. This kid Novack is now shooting 39.3% on his 3's. Gordon and Camby would be welcome ANYWHERE. Thorton is reasonable but overrated. Fred Jones and Skinner are just under rated perfectly reasonable players. Collins in his last 4 games has scored 15 or more each game along with 19 asts and 18 rebounds over the 4 games. I think they dominate the boards and just win the game. Just not a good period for Atlanta.
Something to think about in the Boston game. Think fatigue. This will be their 8th game without 2 days off. It will be their 4th game in 6 nights with overtime in the last game and it will be their 6th game in 9 days. The Nets have not lost in the first quarter in their last 5 games. GL

 

[GWarner27]

Washington should win that game. Knicks being favored by 5 over any team in the league, on any night, is dead wrong. They suck as chalk, and they just blew their load winning in Nawlins, gotta figure that buys them a few games of lying down and sucking. Washington has the two best players on the floor and double season revenge. One cringes in looking at Washington's last few games, but fuck, if they don't at least take this game down to the wire, they might as well just pack it in. Not sure WTF is wrong with Caron (2 points the other night???) but he doesn't seem to have 2 horror show games in a row and he just had one last game. Jamison should put in work down low, nobody on the Knicks can cover him.

completely agree. The Wiz scare me but i'm thinking this line jumps a bit and Caron plays well in the garden, which i think he did when he was playing for UConn as i remember him liking that place :shake:

 

[t-dot]

why would o'Neal start after being out for 2+ weeks? Calderone coming back is no biggy imo. Last full game at home they had with him they beat Houston.

Calderone is a real problem right now. IMO, he is the worst defensive pg in the league right now. The Raptors just dont have the athletes on the wing to make up for his deficiencies. Hughes, Gordon and deng will be looking at open shots all game.

He also has a tendency to have eyes only for Bosh and continually freezes out Bargnani for some reason. Bargs is our catalyst, Raptors will go as he goes.

There are rumours of Chicago and Toronto talking JO. I wouldnt be surprised if he plays in order to showcase himself for a future trade.

 

[tuck321]

Lakers Spurs under 199.5. I believe the last time these two went over this total in San Antonio was in 2003. Lakers on the road as a 4 or less dog 9-5-1 under last 15 times.This two teams consider themselves on a different level. Actions taken with other teams---not accepted here.
Probably should fire on Spurs and playoff revenge but my rule is cramping me. I lost with Houston last night so if I lose twice betting against the Lakers I am barred from betting against them until I bet on them at least once and I may want to bet against them in other games coming up.

 

[SF_capper]

Lakers Spurs under 199.5. I believe the last time these two went over this total in San Antonio was in 2003. Lakers on the road as a 4 or less dog 9-5-1 under last 15 times.This two teams consider themselves on a different level. Actions taken with other teams---not accepted here.
Probably should fire on Spurs and playoff revenge but my rule is cramping me. I lost with Houston last night so if I lose twice betting against the Lakers I am barred from betting against them until I bet on them at least once and I may want to bet against them in other games coming up.

I like that rule, but think you should break it
GL today

 

[Master P]

Before I put in some thoughts, I just want to bash a little bit:
bad day for me earlier tonight as i lost bets on d wolves who gave up a double digit lead, lost the kings bet as i expected the magic to be in a sandwich spot turned out they make a record on 3's made and lost the kitties/stons over- they just shot blanks all over (rip, sheed and complete stons line up and 78points really?)... 0-3 sucks, one of those days

ok got that out

some random thoughts

-cant understand why bucks are at -6.5 now, with 60+% on the heat? i know how the bucks are ATS wise but 6.5 to a solid heat team?

-sixers are getting better playing like last years team- pushing the ball, uptempo and pressing d but really hard to layoff the blazers, sucker bet eh?

-I will be playing the over on the nets/celts, celts maybe trying to find some kind of rythym on offense, I expect them to go put up a 100+pts easily

-Still contemplating to play either the spurs or spurs/lakers under

- toss up between the knicks and wiz, agree with others, butler will not be limited by 2points, nick young is the guy to watch, kid is on fire!

-dont know what to say about the bulls n raps, complete bulls team and their only possible winnable game but boy do they suck on the road... nevermind JO for the raps, bargs is getting back to old form
-also a rumour around is that jermaine for noc and hughes are in the works, i like that trade as a bulls fan but doubt collangelo bites

 

[dstang26]

Bucks are every bit as solid of a team as the Heat. Check the standings. They are also in much better spot with rest at home and Miami having to feel good about themselves after close loss to LA and come from behind win over Wolves last night. Not to mention it is below Zero in Milwaukee right now. You think the MIAMI heat want to be there? Line movement tells me books trying to make a killing on this one. They don't mind all the Heat $$$ and know they will get even more at 6.5 then they got at 5.5...

Spurs and under still look good. Awesome that Lakers took care of business last night against the Artest-less Rockets. Now they will be more content to split...

Real ? For me tonight is did the Pistons shitting the bed against the Cats screw up the Pacers play for tonight?

 

[tuck321]

Toronto Star indicated Calderon is still out and Doug Smith argued for about 18-9 minutes off the bench for O'Neal. There is a real chance Gooden will not play. Gooden last 4 games averaged 19 points and 10.5 rebounds a game. Chicago dreadful in first game of a b-b with a 2-9 record su and and a 3-8 ats record. The 2 wins were at home. This is the same team that is 4-15 away and the 2 teams away they covered losing in they lost by 6 and 7. The spread is 4 and I laid it.

 

[t-dot]

Anyone out for the Pistons?

Pacers are now the faves.

 

[dstang26]

Books just took all value away from Pistons now. That coupled with that they should be pissed about loss last night makes this a no play for me, too bad, liked it too.

You have me thinking about Raps now. Bulls do blow...

Agree with SN, this could really shape up to be a home cover night. Only roaide I lean is NJ +10 and they are better on road to begin with!

Best plays IMO are still Bucks, Spurs, Thunder and Nets...

Still thinking Raps and maybe GS...

As for Clips are they getting healthy again or no?

 

[aplous]

Is Detroit not in the "famed" situation of 4 game road trip, home for 1 game, then on the road the next night?

 

[Scorpion]

why would the line at the knicks game be only 199?

 

[C-MAN]

remember when Detroit was dogged to another Eastern Conf foe they dominate? they pounded the Bucks at Milw. Now make them a dog at Indy, a team they own and playing off a loss where they shot horrible from the field . . .

 

[brewer]

With road teams now having covered 14 straight games, it's time to realise at minimum 1 home team will cover out of the 1st 4 games tomorrow (why the 1st 4? the longest unbroken run of road covers I've ever recorded is 17, therefore am taking it as a given we won't see 18 straight here).

1st game: DET @ IND - Detroit has not lost both games ATS in B2Bs this season, lost tonight, is off a SU loss & has Indy's measure SU. Indy is off a longish Western road trip, and is 1-5 ATS their last 6 at home. Can't say with any comfort the home team covers this game.

2nd game: POR @ PHI - POR has Roy back, and destroyed CHC as a result: a team refinding it's form (3-0 SU) after a 6-8 SU slump. PHI on a season high 4 game win streak & 4-0-1 ATS last 5, so their stocks are high. PHI is 2-4 ATS in home games vs teams w/winning records. Home team with a shot, but imo overvalued against a class team from the West.

3rd game: CHC @ TOR - CHC an abysmal 2-8 ATS last 10, 3-7 ATS last 10 as a Dog, 2-7 ATS last 9 on the road. Their last 7 SU losses have all been by 9+ pt margins. TOR 4-1 SU & ATS their last 5 games not against teams called the Celtics, 4-1 ATS the last 5 games Calderon has missed, and 4-1 ATS their last 5 games as a Fav. Clearly a game the home team is in with a strong shot of covering, since above & beyond the stats they're playing good ball while Shitcago isn't.

4th game: NJY @ BOS - my earlier post above lays out the scenarios entering this game. Another where the home team has a real shot of covering.

Like Toronto first, Boston, Indy (if the spread is big enough, with Detroit off 2 bad losses it arguably wont be) then Philly last.

I'm gonna be on a lot of away teams again today. However, only 1 out of these 4. :4_12_12:Hopefully, not a disaster today...

 

[Goopster24]

Think the Raptors are the best play. I'm on them as well. Bulls will be figuring shit out for their rotation for a while. BOL to all.

 

[brewer]

bulls are a nightmare.

 

[Goopster24]

Seriously.

 

[Gandolf]

Is Detroit not in the "famed" situation of 4 game road trip, home for 1 game, then on the road the next night?

I think the two day layoff before the home game took that out of play. Plus I think its five road, 1 home, then road.

 

[tuck321]

Reason for the low total is Washington on the road is 5-12 under. Once again not taking a side in the Portland-Sixer game. Interesting stats
Portland is 2-12 when they lose the rebounding war.
Portland is 21-2 su when they win the rebounding war
Portland over the season was much better at 3's
They had been struggling recently. Last game they woke up and went 11 of 22. Sixers clearly playing much better recently. Both teams climbing against weak opposition but Portland has won consistently in the East mostly because they are used to a higher level of competition. The money is in finding real advantages so you break out of the win, lose, win, lose cycle. Gun to my head I would take Portland here but it is not a profitable spot to be betting in.
Have a odd bet on OKC that few would make. Basicly built the number up in a parlay with some college basket ball ml's and now have them plus 7 with plus money assuming the college teams survive which they almost always seem to do.

 

[CASH]

have a big play on over pacers at 201.... Pacers will push push and push. and with the addition of dunleavy they willl continue to just shoot, I think the pistons will get a lot of open looks and will run with the pacers. I see a 110-105 game, not sure who wins, dont care..my .02

 

[BetCrimes1984]

why would the line at the knicks game be only 199?

Lets see

Washington is 8-1 to Under on the road since losing Antonio Daniels, the 1 Over going Over by 1 point thanks to Boston deciding to score 108 pts when they didnt need to.

New York is on a 7 game under streak (& 15-5 to Under last 20/75%).

Frankly, IMO the only reason this total is rising is because people are chasing in NYK's first Over result in sometime.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

have a big play on over pacers at 201.... Pacers will push push and push. and with the addition of dunleavy they willl continue to just shoot, I think the pistons will get a lot of open looks and will run with the pacers. I see a 110-105 game, not sure who wins, dont care..my .02

Detroit 9-1 to Under their last 10, the 1 Over going over by 2 pts.

Detroit has gone 15 games without letting their opponents break 100 points.

When they totaled 224 w/Indy in Indy earlier this season, they were playing off 2 days rest & playing their 4th game (2 roadies) in 8 days. Here they're playing B2B & their 4th game (3 roadies) in 6 days.

Indiana has paid out on Over their last 9 home games (8-1 in reg.).

Both these games (Indy/Knicks) have had their totals rise to cross the 200 barrier, I'd be suprised outside of referee influence (bogus # of FTs) if both went Over.

 

[CASH]

got lucky with over indy game,, no complaints from me except.. i almost had the exact score. missed it by 1 point..

 

[Ramathorn02]

I hate the Spurs, lol.

 

[Satyr]

great game in SA, too bad I got moosed as well laying 3 with SA. Was waiting for this spot and got burned...tough.

Ariza travel was a no call though, doesn't change things as Duncan got the rebound, but just for the record.

 

[Ramathorn02]

uh, Ariza also should've fouled Barnes with .8. What's the harm? Lakers are clearly better though. And I think the Spurs are scared of them.

 

[Throwback420]

fuckin stupid ass Fish.

and any superstar gets a foul at the end but Riza doesnt ? lol

thank god I took the 3 and not the ML I would be furious.

with all that said Spurs still suck balls.

 

[phatprep3]

anyone like the over in the 2nd half in golden state at 113?

 

[Satyr]

fuckin stupid ass Fish.

and any superstar gets a foul at the end but Riza doesnt ? lol

thank god I took the 3 and not the ML I would be furious.

with all that said Spurs still suck balls.

fair as ever :shake:

Hey what about the no call on Duncan's hook shot? It was a clear foul, should have been and 1.

Ariza missed, it was a no call, Van Gundy called it as well btw, don't listen to me.

And yeah, I knew it you weren't going to step up. :cheers:

 

[Satyr]

uh, Ariza also should've fouled Barnes with .8. What's the harm? Lakers are clearly better though. And I think the Spurs are scared of them.

I agree. The Lakers are the better team. The Spurs still have a lot of talent, a lot of class, and with Hill and Mason they have two up and coming players, both are very solid and provide options for Pop.

the Lakers are unreal though, the Spurs probably have very little chance to advance in a 7 game series, if any.

Kobe has stepped up so big the last few years, he's not just a scorer any more, he's an MVP in a class of his own.

Always nice to beat the Lakers though, great game for both teams. :cheers:

 

[brewer]

that wasn't a hook shot. duncan lost the ball making his move and shit dropped in.

 

[Throwback420]

that wasn't a hook shot. duncan lost the ball making his move and shit dropped in.

yup lol

 

[Throwback420]

Riza got fouled b4 the Travel that shit should have been called.