MLB Parlay Picks of the Day
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Sandy Alcantara
Marlin starter Sandy Alcantara has been strong in the last month, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
One thing that makes him successful is his strong command. He avoids walking too many batters and ably starts off the count with a first-pitch strike.
Alcantara vs. Cardinal Batters
When Alcantara faced the Cards back in April -- in his only other start against them this season -- he allowed two earned runs in six innings.
While a 3.00 ERA in an outing is excellent, it was really a tough-luck outing for him because he allowed a .308 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite yielding 15.4-percent hard contact, which is a very low number.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in that outing indicates how positive the quality of his individual performance was.
Alcantara matches up well with the Cards because they own a uniquely righty-heavy lineup. The core of their lineup -- Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tyler O'Neill -- are all right-handed guys.
Problematically for St. Louis, Alcantara is yielding a 2.38 FIP against righties. While he is more vulnerable against lefties, St. Louis doesn't own the lefty bats to give him any trouble.
St. Louis' Inferior Alternative
The Cardinal starting rotation is laden with injuries -- Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas remain injured.
So the Cards have to turn to unproven youngster Johan Oviedo, despite the fact that he's yielded an FIP well over 5.00 in four of his last five starts.
Oviedo regularly struggles to limit the opposing run total partly because of his awful command. Unlike Alcantara, Oviedo is walking 5.72 batters per nine innings.
This seems to me like a cheap price at which to take the team -- Miami -- with the clear edge in starting pitching.
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Tarik Skubal
Tiger starter Tarik Skubal is coming off his worst start in a while, where he yielded three runs in six innings against a White Sox lineup that he had to face a second time in a row and that is characteristically superb against left-handed pitching.
Before that game, Skubal had conceded two or fewer runs in four straight starts.
Skubal vs. Royal Batters
Today presents a great opportunity for Skubal to bounce back against a Royal lineup that has been abysmally cold for a while now.
Kansas City has scored three runs or fewer in nine of its last 10 games.
Skubal's big vulnerability is the home run ball. Problematically for the Royals, they rank 26th in home runs per game and haven't been accruing many of them lately, either.
Brady Singer
Royal starter Brady Singer promises to keep his team in the game because he owns excellent numbers against active Tiger batters.
In a combined total of 87 at-bats, they are hitting .218 and slugging .356 against Singer.
Nomar Mazara, for example, has more strikeouts (three) than hits (two) in his career facing Singer.
Singer will limit Detroit's lineup in order to help keep this game low-scoring.
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Fade Blake Snell On The Road
Padre starter Blake Snell has been an awful bet in general. But he is uniquelly awful on the road.
In his road starts, San Diego is 0-7, costing its backers 9.3 units so far.
Snell vs. Rockie Batters
Unlike Snell, Colorado is an excellent bet at home.
The Rockies will continue to succeed at home because they match up well against Snell.
Snell's favorite two pitches are his fastball and slider. Against these two pitches, the Rockies rank third in slugging .514 at home from lefties combined.
You might say that the Rockies hit in a hitters-friendly ballpark. So maybe they don't actually match up well with Snell, but simply benefit from playing in Denver?
But their home slugging rate this season is .464, compared to .514 at home against Snell's pitches from lefties. So they do hit Snell's pitches from lefties rather strongly.
Kyle Freeland
Rockie starter Kyle Freeland is coming off an atrocious start. But don't give in to recency bias.
It's not like he's been bad every start. Most notably, he allowed one run in four innings against the Mets.
In his last two starts, he simply ran into Red and Athletic lineups that were very hot, that were consistently amassing strong scoring outputs.
We can count on Freeland against a cold lineup. San Diego is cold: the Padres have scored fewer than four runs in five of their last seven games.
They are reliably losing mostly because of their struggling lineup. Yet we are getting an extra run at a cheap price. So let's take the underdog on the run-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Marlins ML at -112, Tigers/Royals Under 9.5 at -113, Rockies RL at +107 at +639 odds with Heritage
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis
Sandy Alcantara
Marlin starter Sandy Alcantara has been strong in the last month, allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.
One thing that makes him successful is his strong command. He avoids walking too many batters and ably starts off the count with a first-pitch strike.
Alcantara vs. Cardinal Batters
When Alcantara faced the Cards back in April -- in his only other start against them this season -- he allowed two earned runs in six innings.
While a 3.00 ERA in an outing is excellent, it was really a tough-luck outing for him because he allowed a .308 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite yielding 15.4-percent hard contact, which is a very low number.
His FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in that outing indicates how positive the quality of his individual performance was.
Alcantara matches up well with the Cards because they own a uniquely righty-heavy lineup. The core of their lineup -- Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tyler O'Neill -- are all right-handed guys.
Problematically for St. Louis, Alcantara is yielding a 2.38 FIP against righties. While he is more vulnerable against lefties, St. Louis doesn't own the lefty bats to give him any trouble.
St. Louis' Inferior Alternative
The Cardinal starting rotation is laden with injuries -- Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas remain injured.
So the Cards have to turn to unproven youngster Johan Oviedo, despite the fact that he's yielded an FIP well over 5.00 in four of his last five starts.
Oviedo regularly struggles to limit the opposing run total partly because of his awful command. Unlike Alcantara, Oviedo is walking 5.72 batters per nine innings.
This seems to me like a cheap price at which to take the team -- Miami -- with the clear edge in starting pitching.
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Tarik Skubal
Tiger starter Tarik Skubal is coming off his worst start in a while, where he yielded three runs in six innings against a White Sox lineup that he had to face a second time in a row and that is characteristically superb against left-handed pitching.
Before that game, Skubal had conceded two or fewer runs in four straight starts.
Skubal vs. Royal Batters
Today presents a great opportunity for Skubal to bounce back against a Royal lineup that has been abysmally cold for a while now.
Kansas City has scored three runs or fewer in nine of its last 10 games.
Skubal's big vulnerability is the home run ball. Problematically for the Royals, they rank 26th in home runs per game and haven't been accruing many of them lately, either.
Brady Singer
Royal starter Brady Singer promises to keep his team in the game because he owns excellent numbers against active Tiger batters.
In a combined total of 87 at-bats, they are hitting .218 and slugging .356 against Singer.
Nomar Mazara, for example, has more strikeouts (three) than hits (two) in his career facing Singer.
Singer will limit Detroit's lineup in order to help keep this game low-scoring.
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Fade Blake Snell On The Road
Padre starter Blake Snell has been an awful bet in general. But he is uniquelly awful on the road.
In his road starts, San Diego is 0-7, costing its backers 9.3 units so far.
Snell vs. Rockie Batters
Unlike Snell, Colorado is an excellent bet at home.
The Rockies will continue to succeed at home because they match up well against Snell.
Snell's favorite two pitches are his fastball and slider. Against these two pitches, the Rockies rank third in slugging .514 at home from lefties combined.
You might say that the Rockies hit in a hitters-friendly ballpark. So maybe they don't actually match up well with Snell, but simply benefit from playing in Denver?
But their home slugging rate this season is .464, compared to .514 at home against Snell's pitches from lefties. So they do hit Snell's pitches from lefties rather strongly.
Kyle Freeland
Rockie starter Kyle Freeland is coming off an atrocious start. But don't give in to recency bias.
It's not like he's been bad every start. Most notably, he allowed one run in four innings against the Mets.
In his last two starts, he simply ran into Red and Athletic lineups that were very hot, that were consistently amassing strong scoring outputs.
We can count on Freeland against a cold lineup. San Diego is cold: the Padres have scored fewer than four runs in five of their last seven games.
They are reliably losing mostly because of their struggling lineup. Yet we are getting an extra run at a cheap price. So let's take the underdog on the run-line.
Best Bet: Parlay Marlins ML at -112, Tigers/Royals Under 9.5 at -113, Rockies RL at +107 at +639 odds with Heritage
