Wednesday Baseball Thought

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
If I decide to make this play, I will update the record, otherwise this is a pretty much useless thread and I will be back on Thursday with some plays.

Line yesterday: -168
Line today: -149

Now that line movement really doesn't have much to do with my pick except for now I will consider the play. At -170, I said I can't really back the Pirates at that price but now its almost reasonable and at -1, the odds are almost even so I would gladly walk away with a push today if it came down to it.

Pitt won the game last night and the bats are showing up a little more lately. Pitt is a tough team to back but I do like to back them when Snell and Gorzelanny pitch because they are a fiesty team with heart and they play hard, I wish they ran the bases a little better though. Snell is a good pitcher, nothing more to say about that.

Texas is 9-23 away, 5-14 in their last 19, 9-25 in their last 34 road games. They don't win very much on the road to sum that up.

Now Pitt is not the best home team either (12-19), and they are 8-10 in their last 18 games. The thing you have to understand is that both of these teams are bad so Pitt is just a better bad team right now with the better starting pitcher.

Snell on the yr: 5-4, 2.91era, 86.2ip, 73h, 1.15whip, 27bb, 71k, OBP = .292
Snell L3 games: 1-1, 2.45era, 22ip, 14h, .95whip, 7bb, 19k
Snell home: 4-2, 2.72era, 6g, 39.2ip, 36h, 13bb, 30k

Pirates are 8-5 when Snell pitches and 2-1 in his last 3 starts.

Tejeda on the yr: 5-6, 6.47era, 64ip, 70h, 1.56whip, 30bb, 48k, OBP = .365
Tejeda L3 games: 1-2, 10.57era, 15.1ip, 20h, 1.96whip, 10bb, 11k
Tejeda away: 3-3, 6.98era, 29.2ip, 28h, 19bb, 21k

Rangers are 6-6 when Tejeda pitches and 1-2 in his last 3 starts.

Snell last 6 starts: 2,1,3,4,4,2 earned runs
Tejeda last 6 starts: 6,1,5,5,7,6 earned runs

Teixeira on the DL takes the best bat out of the lineup for the Rangers
Capps can still close for the Pirates and having Torress on the DL is a good thing.

A play would look something like this:

Pirates -1 $498 to Win $490

That is why I am considering the play because it is basically even odds. Of course the Pirates are not a team you expect to win games by large margins but Snell is a horse and I think he can contain the Rangers for 2-3er over 6-7ip. Tejeda, I have no idea what he is going to do but the Pirates should be able to hit him.

I am off to the gym to think about this play and if I really want to get involved here but this is the type of situation I like.
 
"He ain't show me no guts out there"-Ron Washington on Robinson Tejeda. Kills me everytime...and I'm a huge Wash supporter from his time with the A's...

Texas is a trainwreck right now. Any time you can bet against a trainwreck, do it. Once they win a couple games, you can stop...I think you got the right side here.
 
Thanks Satyr

Seabass - Thanks for the quote, I agree they are a trainwreck.


Found this an interesting and surprising stat....Pitt has 27 wins this yr, 18 are by 2 or more runs.
 
Other notes I had dug up..

Pirates owns NL worst home record
Texas owns MLB worst road record

Snell has pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start in 2007, but the Pirates have scored three or fewer runs for him in 11 of his 13 outings.

Texas has dropped 4 straight road games twice this yr, tonight if they lost, would be the 3rd time this yr.

Teixeira leads team in average and home runs so with him out it def hurts
 
i would definitely back the Pirates if I had to choose a side in this game. The way Tejada has been pitching doesnt compare to Snell.
 
i would definitely back the Pirates if I had to choose a side in this game. The way Tejada has been pitching doesnt compare to Snell.

I agree very much..


I have enough numbers here to tell me that Pirates should win this game. Now if Tejeda goes out and pitches a gem, again what the hell am I suppose to do.


Pirates -1 $547.80 to Win $539
Pirates ML $327.80 to Win $220
Pirates RL $220 to Win $319


Thats all for today..

-$559 on Monday
-$549 on Tuesday
 
Pirates have a terrible pen. Played Snell ml first 5 GL

I kind of agree/disagree

Torress and Bayliss are awful, no doubt however I do like Marte and Capps so if Snell went 7 and Marte and Capps finished off the game, I wouldn't mind it at all.

I watched Marte vs the Yanks and the kid has a live arm, actually they all do really cept Torres and with him on the DL, I don't mind at all.
 
Snell will go at least 7...Pirates called up reliever Dan Kolb, hopefully he can help the bullpen..Doumit should be in the lineup tonite he adds some gap power . i like the buccos chances , but i`m a homer ...
 
Why not pitch Marte in the 8th and Capps in the 9th.. Do I have to write Tracy a letter?

Marte this yr: 1.23era, 22ip, 13h, 25k, 9bb, .267 OBP
 
Marte for some reason is hardly used, usually only a batter or two, couple times per week...Thats Tracy trying to protect a players value by not giving him too much exposure...Right now lefty nice low era...So they can trade him in July for more sorry middle relief pitchers..
 
Marte for some reason is hardly used, usually only a batter or two, couple times per week...Thats Tracy trying to protect a players value by not giving him too much exposure...Right now lefty nice low era...So they can trade him in July for more sorry middle relief pitchers..

His highest ERA since 2002 is a 3.77, lowest was in 03' when he had a 1.58era. This yr he has a 1.23 but it is far from over. The bad news is that he pitched 1.2 last night so who knows if he will even be available tonight. I will say that Bayliss and Grabow better not come near this game tonight.

Snell only threw 87 pitches or so last wk, hopefully he is firing tonight, get up near 110 after 8 and Capps could finish it off, of course that would just be perfect, lol.

Best of luck to US tonight

I am off to go coach some 15yr old kids that play more fundamental baseball than 75% of these major league players.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE TONIGHT
 
My team is in such a sad state. If you want to bet against the Rangers bet against them on getaway days. Their record is atrocious this year in that situation.
 
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