Game 2 NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Wednesday, May 8, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
New York's Game 1 Overachievement
The Knicks won Game 1 by the slimmest of margins despite their unsustainable overachievement from behind the arc.
They converted 47.8-percent of their three-point attempts.
On the season, they are shooting 36.6-percent of their threes at home.
One has to expect the to regress to the mean.
This expectation is especially valid given the quality of Indiana's perimeter defense.
Indiana did a great job of limiting wide-open three-point attempts.
The Knicks, however, made an absurd 60% of their wide-open three-point attempts.
Moreover, they converted an equally absurd two of five tightly contested three-pointers.
A lower point total from the Knicks, a consequence of their decline in three-point shooting, will make it easier for Indiana to even the series.
Indiana's Bench
Now, one might say that the Pacers' bench overachieved in Game 1.
But Obi Toppin has become a consistent double-digit scorer for the Pacers, and T.J. McConnell's Game 1 performance wasn't even as strong as his second-to-last game, Game 6 versus Milwaukee.
We knew coming into this series that the Pacers would have an advantage with their depth.
New York likes to rely on a shorter rotation with its starters playing more minutes.
Indiana's ability to play fast magnifies the disparity between each team's quality of depth, a disparity that will only become more apparent in Game 2 with the teams being less rested than they were up to the beginning of this series.
Indiana's Key Scorers
Expect more from Pascal Siakam in Game 2.
New York's rim protection is down with the injury of starting center Mitchell Robinson. With Isaiah Hartenstein drawn away from the basket to try to deal with sharpshooting center Myles Turner, who can definitely be more efficient from deep in Game 2 than he was in Game 1, Siakam will face less overall resistance at the basket.
Tyrese Haliburton was, similar to Game 1 against Milwaukee, unusually passive.
It is impressive that Indiana was able to thrive in Game 1 given the minimal impact that he exercised, despite the expectation that he be a key scorer and facilitator for the offense.
Haliburton bounced back in Indiana's Game 2 win over the Bucks, and I expect the same improvement from him tonight.
Defending Jalen Brunson
Indiana, despite New York's success from deep, was actually leading in the fourth quarter.
One key to finishing off the Knicks will be to defend their star point guard more effectively.
Andrew Nembhard improved against Milwaukee's star point guard, and I expect him to likewise make adjustments against Brunson.
With his energy, Nembhard characteristically does a good job of putting pressure on opposing point guards. Indiana will also give Brunson different looks, such as with a lengthy Aaron Nesmith.
Brunson's streak of 40-point outputs has been quite insane, but Indiana has the personnel to end it.
Takeaway
Continual consistency from Indiana's bench as part of its depth advantage, worse three-point shooting from the Knicks, a better defensive effort against Brunson, more offensive production from Siakam, Turner, and Haliburton, and New York's apparent willingness to comply with Indiana's proclivity to play fast will make covering the spread all the easier for Indiana in Game 2.
Best Bet: Pacers +4.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Boston's Dominance
Since their Game 2 loss against Miami, the Celtics have won their last four games by 20, 14, 24, and 25 points, respectively.
Their key has been to clamp down on the perimeter and then to take advantage of their opponent's lack of inside scoring.
Cleveland's Three-Point Shooting
Cleveland has the sixth-worst road three-point shooting percentage in the NBA.
We saw evidence of this in Game 1 against Boston.
Indeed, we've seen this throughout the playoffs.
In four road games now, Cleveland has yet to sniff a 30-percent three-point conversion rate.
Boston's devotion to clamping down on the perimeter, with the help of its two All-NBA Defensive Team guards, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, will prolong Cleveland's three-point shooting woes.
In Game 1, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley scored effectively inside, and yet the Cavaliers still only managed 95 points.
Road Trends
A big part of why Cleveland is 0-4 ATS on the road this postseason is that it has yet to exceed 96 points in a given game.
The Cavaliers' role players have been nonexistent away from home, as is often the case for role players, and the team's two key guards have to deal with Boston's lockdown perimeter defenders.
Another road trend suggests further reasons for Cleveland's Game 1 debacle.
Under its head coach, Cleveland is 0-6 ATS on the road.
The adjustments, game-planning, and the creativity in general are not so apparent from Cleveland's coaching staff in its road games.
Boston is locked-in as a team and will do everything to outperform the Cavaliers again by a significant margin.
Jayson Tatum
Boston dominated Game 1, with a 120-point output from its offense, without its main star Jayson Tatum making a three.
The Celtics did not shoot so amazingly from deep in Game 1, so they can improve upon their output especially with a stronger game from Tatum.
Best Bet: Celtics -13.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
Luka Doncic
We knew heading into this series that Dallas superstar Luka Doncic was not at his best due to his knee.
But let's not exaggerate things.
As measured by field goal percentage, he had a worse performance last series, Game 3 against the Clippers.
He followed up that performance by upping his field goal conversion rate by 13.7 percent in Game 4, helping his team score ten more points than it did in Game 3.
Typically, he's been much stronger offensively.
Look for him to improve in Game 2 of this series with more distribution and more mid-range shooting.
Kyrie Irving
His teammate Kyrie Irving will take an even bigger step forward, though.
Irving's Game 1 performance was too passive. He disappeared especially later in the game, taking too few shots.
His efficiency was, however, promising.
Last series, he had a game in which he attempted as few field goals as he did in Game 1 of this series.
He followed that game by attempting more shots and scoring sixteen more points.
While the Thunder do have good defenders, it is very hard to contain a superstar like Luka and Irving showed a lot of promise in Game 1 that he can build off of simply by being more aggressive.
Turnovers
Irving also committed avoidable turnovers.
This will be something that he'll cut down on, as when he followed his seven-turnover performance in Game 4 last series with a zero-turnover one in Game 5.
OKC scored 22 points off turnovers in Game 1, which was the difference in the game, so a more careful game at the very least from Irving will help Dallas tremendously.
Energy
Energy from Irving will be part of a team-wide improved effort in Game 2.
The Thunder outrebounded Dallas in Game 1 as part of their stronger effort.
Based on total rebounding stats from this whole year, that should not happen.
Dallas will do a better job of finishing possessions on defense, which will bleed into a better rhythm on offense.
Three-Point Shooting
For their Game 1 win, the Thunder also relied on making an improbable 16 threes.
They overachieved significantly based on their season-long three-point conversion rate at home.
Led by Derrick Jones Jr., who boasts strong grades as an isolation perimeter defender, the Mavericks will curtail OKC's three-point shooting in Game 2.
They have the personnel to do so, but they did not have the required discipline in Game 1, as evident in their undisciplined closeouts in that game. But this is an easily fixable problem.
This game was a tight one in the third quarter until the Thunder with their improbable three-point shooting efficiency pulled away.
Without that three-point shooting, the game stays close even with underachievement from Doncic and Irving and with the team-wide disappointment in turnovers, rebounds, and overall effort and energy.
Dallas' three-point shooting will improve in Game 2 with high-volume shooter Tim Hardaway Jr. having shaken off his rust in Game 1 following a multi-week absence.
Inside Dominance
OKC's decline in three-point shooting will position it to rely more on scoring inside where it will collide with Dallas' high-quality rim protection.
The Mavericks have, in this postseason, done the best job at limiting opposing scoring within five feet of the basket.
Offensively, Maverick players like Daniel Gafford are too strong for the likes of OKC's lean starting center Chet Holmgren.
Dallas' rim-running tendencies will complement its improved guard play.
Best Bet: Mavericks +5 at -108 with Heritage
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Wednesday, May 8, 2024 at 8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
New York's Game 1 Overachievement
The Knicks won Game 1 by the slimmest of margins despite their unsustainable overachievement from behind the arc.
They converted 47.8-percent of their three-point attempts.
On the season, they are shooting 36.6-percent of their threes at home.
One has to expect the to regress to the mean.
This expectation is especially valid given the quality of Indiana's perimeter defense.
Indiana did a great job of limiting wide-open three-point attempts.
The Knicks, however, made an absurd 60% of their wide-open three-point attempts.
Moreover, they converted an equally absurd two of five tightly contested three-pointers.
A lower point total from the Knicks, a consequence of their decline in three-point shooting, will make it easier for Indiana to even the series.
Indiana's Bench
Now, one might say that the Pacers' bench overachieved in Game 1.
But Obi Toppin has become a consistent double-digit scorer for the Pacers, and T.J. McConnell's Game 1 performance wasn't even as strong as his second-to-last game, Game 6 versus Milwaukee.
We knew coming into this series that the Pacers would have an advantage with their depth.
New York likes to rely on a shorter rotation with its starters playing more minutes.
Indiana's ability to play fast magnifies the disparity between each team's quality of depth, a disparity that will only become more apparent in Game 2 with the teams being less rested than they were up to the beginning of this series.
Indiana's Key Scorers
Expect more from Pascal Siakam in Game 2.
New York's rim protection is down with the injury of starting center Mitchell Robinson. With Isaiah Hartenstein drawn away from the basket to try to deal with sharpshooting center Myles Turner, who can definitely be more efficient from deep in Game 2 than he was in Game 1, Siakam will face less overall resistance at the basket.
Tyrese Haliburton was, similar to Game 1 against Milwaukee, unusually passive.
It is impressive that Indiana was able to thrive in Game 1 given the minimal impact that he exercised, despite the expectation that he be a key scorer and facilitator for the offense.
Haliburton bounced back in Indiana's Game 2 win over the Bucks, and I expect the same improvement from him tonight.
Defending Jalen Brunson
Indiana, despite New York's success from deep, was actually leading in the fourth quarter.
One key to finishing off the Knicks will be to defend their star point guard more effectively.
Andrew Nembhard improved against Milwaukee's star point guard, and I expect him to likewise make adjustments against Brunson.
With his energy, Nembhard characteristically does a good job of putting pressure on opposing point guards. Indiana will also give Brunson different looks, such as with a lengthy Aaron Nesmith.
Brunson's streak of 40-point outputs has been quite insane, but Indiana has the personnel to end it.
Takeaway
Continual consistency from Indiana's bench as part of its depth advantage, worse three-point shooting from the Knicks, a better defensive effort against Brunson, more offensive production from Siakam, Turner, and Haliburton, and New York's apparent willingness to comply with Indiana's proclivity to play fast will make covering the spread all the easier for Indiana in Game 2.
Best Bet: Pacers +4.5 at -105 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden
Boston's Dominance
Since their Game 2 loss against Miami, the Celtics have won their last four games by 20, 14, 24, and 25 points, respectively.
Their key has been to clamp down on the perimeter and then to take advantage of their opponent's lack of inside scoring.
Cleveland's Three-Point Shooting
Cleveland has the sixth-worst road three-point shooting percentage in the NBA.
We saw evidence of this in Game 1 against Boston.
Indeed, we've seen this throughout the playoffs.
In four road games now, Cleveland has yet to sniff a 30-percent three-point conversion rate.
Boston's devotion to clamping down on the perimeter, with the help of its two All-NBA Defensive Team guards, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, will prolong Cleveland's three-point shooting woes.
In Game 1, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley scored effectively inside, and yet the Cavaliers still only managed 95 points.
Road Trends
A big part of why Cleveland is 0-4 ATS on the road this postseason is that it has yet to exceed 96 points in a given game.
The Cavaliers' role players have been nonexistent away from home, as is often the case for role players, and the team's two key guards have to deal with Boston's lockdown perimeter defenders.
Another road trend suggests further reasons for Cleveland's Game 1 debacle.
Under its head coach, Cleveland is 0-6 ATS on the road.
The adjustments, game-planning, and the creativity in general are not so apparent from Cleveland's coaching staff in its road games.
Boston is locked-in as a team and will do everything to outperform the Cavaliers again by a significant margin.
Jayson Tatum
Boston dominated Game 1, with a 120-point output from its offense, without its main star Jayson Tatum making a three.
The Celtics did not shoot so amazingly from deep in Game 1, so they can improve upon their output especially with a stronger game from Tatum.
Best Bet: Celtics -13.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thursday, May 9, 2024 at 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center
Luka Doncic
We knew heading into this series that Dallas superstar Luka Doncic was not at his best due to his knee.
But let's not exaggerate things.
As measured by field goal percentage, he had a worse performance last series, Game 3 against the Clippers.
He followed up that performance by upping his field goal conversion rate by 13.7 percent in Game 4, helping his team score ten more points than it did in Game 3.
Typically, he's been much stronger offensively.
Look for him to improve in Game 2 of this series with more distribution and more mid-range shooting.
Kyrie Irving
His teammate Kyrie Irving will take an even bigger step forward, though.
Irving's Game 1 performance was too passive. He disappeared especially later in the game, taking too few shots.
His efficiency was, however, promising.
Last series, he had a game in which he attempted as few field goals as he did in Game 1 of this series.
He followed that game by attempting more shots and scoring sixteen more points.
While the Thunder do have good defenders, it is very hard to contain a superstar like Luka and Irving showed a lot of promise in Game 1 that he can build off of simply by being more aggressive.
Turnovers
Irving also committed avoidable turnovers.
This will be something that he'll cut down on, as when he followed his seven-turnover performance in Game 4 last series with a zero-turnover one in Game 5.
OKC scored 22 points off turnovers in Game 1, which was the difference in the game, so a more careful game at the very least from Irving will help Dallas tremendously.
Energy
Energy from Irving will be part of a team-wide improved effort in Game 2.
The Thunder outrebounded Dallas in Game 1 as part of their stronger effort.
Based on total rebounding stats from this whole year, that should not happen.
Dallas will do a better job of finishing possessions on defense, which will bleed into a better rhythm on offense.
Three-Point Shooting
For their Game 1 win, the Thunder also relied on making an improbable 16 threes.
They overachieved significantly based on their season-long three-point conversion rate at home.
Led by Derrick Jones Jr., who boasts strong grades as an isolation perimeter defender, the Mavericks will curtail OKC's three-point shooting in Game 2.
They have the personnel to do so, but they did not have the required discipline in Game 1, as evident in their undisciplined closeouts in that game. But this is an easily fixable problem.
This game was a tight one in the third quarter until the Thunder with their improbable three-point shooting efficiency pulled away.
Without that three-point shooting, the game stays close even with underachievement from Doncic and Irving and with the team-wide disappointment in turnovers, rebounds, and overall effort and energy.
Dallas' three-point shooting will improve in Game 2 with high-volume shooter Tim Hardaway Jr. having shaken off his rust in Game 1 following a multi-week absence.
Inside Dominance
OKC's decline in three-point shooting will position it to rely more on scoring inside where it will collide with Dallas' high-quality rim protection.
The Mavericks have, in this postseason, done the best job at limiting opposing scoring within five feet of the basket.
Offensively, Maverick players like Daniel Gafford are too strong for the likes of OKC's lean starting center Chet Holmgren.
Dallas' rim-running tendencies will complement its improved guard play.
Best Bet: Mavericks +5 at -108 with Heritage
