Wednesday 11/13/2007

[JPicks]

YTD 36-25 +11.33 Units

Updated thru Wednesday (Most likely taking Thursday off)
39-27 +12.13 Units

Wednesday Plays

Atlanta Hawks -5
IND/WAS O200'
MEM/WAS O206
Pistons -2'
Magic +3'


ATL -5

Love the Hawks here. They're 2-3 facing a 4-3 Bobcats team and who wouldn't want to lay 5 points with a team that has a losing record against a team with a winning record? Honestly don't overthink this one. ATL has played DAL, @DET, @NJN, PHO @BOS, WAS. Ask me before the season started and I'd tell you 1-5 would be a good record after all that. The fact that they handled DAL and PHO at home was a major surprise as well as the fact they lost to WAS after their previous home triumphs. ATL with 2 days rest playing the Bobcats who are B2B. To bad the Heat didn't make them work for that victory. If the Hawks are serious about making a playoff push this year, and I think they are, this is the kind of game they have to come out and show it. Tough turnaround for the Bobcats.


IND/WAS O200'

I think this one will be similar to the Denver/Indy game a few days back. Only difference is we're getting a 10 point discount on the fact that it's WAS rather than DEN. I'm not oblivous to Washington's struggles so far this year. They're not running like you'd expect and much of that has to do with Gilbert's knee. Really counting on Butler, Jamison and possibly a bit of help from Deshawn as the Pacers are giving up 40%+ from beyond the arc.

These teams already threw up 203 in REG with WAS shooting 36% and IND shooting 41%. I'm pretty sure I can get that out of them in the rematch.

 

[tuck321]

In connection with the over possibly a secondary bet on first half over? This will be the third b-b game for Indiana and in the first 2 they scored 72 and 74 points in the first halfs. GL

 

[JPicks]

Thanks tuck. I've never had a huge amount of luck with 1st half plays. Of course I've never had much luck with PHO totals and I still play them so anything's possible. More likely to play a 2nd half Over if the 1st half falls below expectations.

 

[SF_capper]

what you think of Indiana as a side bet? Wash's inside D has looked worse than my low expectations

 

[SF_capper]

also, any feel for your boys 2m?

looks to me like they should be able to get some easy looks against this Toronto D. Maybe an over as well?

 

[t-dot]

Thanks tuck. I've never had a huge amount of luck with 1st half plays. Of course I've never had much luck with PHO totals and I still play them so anything's possible. More likely to play a 2nd half Over if the 1st half falls below expectations.

If the 1H goes under, the game will go under. The Pacers like a virgin will use up all their energy right after the first tip-off and will have nothing left in the 2H.

 

[j3pj3p]

Looking to parlay ATL ML with something

 

[JPicks]

what you think of Indiana as a side bet? Wash's inside D has looked worse than my low expectations

One would certainly think the Indiana side would be the correct one. I'm still trying to figure out how/why the Wiz opened at 6 (now 6'). This is one of those spreads where I just shake my head and figure I'm missing something.

As far as the Jazz go tonight I think the over is probably the best play. The Jazz aren't play great defense this year, nor did they last, and teams are scoring. TOR gets 100 at a minimum in this game and from there you gotta decide wether you think the Jazz can get the W or not. Regardless if TOR plays great D or not you'd think the Jazz will get into the high 90's here. Liked it alot more at 201 than I do at 204.

If the 1H goes under, the game will go under. The Pacers like a virgin will use up all their energy right after the first tip-off and will have nothing left in the 2H.

Good point t-dot. Luckily I won't be around to have to worry about any of those decisions. And great virgin anaylasis. :boff:

Looking to parlay ATL ML with something

I'd rather see you straight bet them, but I think the Rockets are unlikely to lose two straight but Kobe could kill you their. Honestly I think every underdog has a shot at losing SU tonight but the Rockets are probably the safest.

 

[JPicks]

MEM/MLW O206

I've got to give credit to Killa for this one as he pointed out to me. If these teams play two weeks from today I think you'd see a total in the high 210's. Looking at MLW schedule you'll quickly see they've played a majority of their games against defensive/half court teams. SA/HOU/TOR/CHI/CHAR/ORL. They've only cleared the 100 point mark once this year and tonight should be a nice coming out party vs. the Grizz's defense. I know MEM was stoked about their d last night, but it came against a Rocket team that had other plans probably in their mind (schedule lookahead). For MLW they've had two days off to get ready for this one and a day off tomorrow to recover from what I expect to be a shootout. MEM needs no introduction as they're going to give up 100+ to everybody they play and are almost assured of 100+ themselves. Only worry is that Memphis scored 94/98 on two of their three road games while the Bucks held TOR/CHI to 85/72 on their only two home games. If Memphis can't get to 95 then this has no chance. With the comments I've read from the Memphis paper and the upcoming schedule for the Grizz I think they keep it close. And keeping it close for Memphis always involves scoring.

 

[Killa]

What's your take on Seattle/Miami?

 

[JPicks]

What's your take on Seattle/Miami?

You don't want to hear my take on Minny/SAC but you want me to talk about Sonics/Heat???? You're crazy. Thoughts would be that Seattle got the one shitty game out of their system yesterday. You can only lose so many games by a handful of points before you break out and get a win or get your ass handed to ya. BC had some great points why they were going to get their asses handed to them in Tuesday's discussion and he was right. With that game out of the picture they've only lost on other game that they were never in (DEN). To think the Miami is team that can do what PHO, UTA, and DET couldn't do is just bad logic. If the Heat really give 6 points with or w/out Wade to the Sonics I'll be on SEA. Probably even play my first doggie ML. Only worry is Riley's quote motivating whatever there is to motivate in MIA:

"With an old hip, I'm 62 years old, I can't (expletive) see, but I could play better than some of my guys tonight," Heat coach Pat Riley said after the Bobcats built a 30-point lead en route to a 91-76 victory Tuesday night.

 

[Hard Times]

pat riley is classic

 

[j3pj3p]

BOL :smiley_acbe:

 

[reNew Orleans]

BOL today JP - like the card, will be on both those totals with you. Like the ATL play but decided to play the under, I feel the Hawks shut down the bobcats to keep it low

 

[Satyr]

good luck tonight JPicks, good thread. :shake: :cheers:

 

[rod_steel]

:cheers:

 

[JPicks]

Thanks fellas. I agree with you Renew about the total, but BC had some good points as to why the under might not be as solid as one would think. I think it's in the Wednesday discussion thread. Still like it, but I'm happy with just playing the Hawks.

And for anybody else who's reading this you should really take some time to look at the top four threads posted by BetCrimes. There is a wealth of info up there.

 

[redbearde]

If the Heat really give 6 points with or w/out Wade to the Sonics I'll be on SEA. Probably even play my first doggie ML. Only worry is Riley's quote motivating whatever there is to motivate in MIA:

"With an old hip, I'm 62 years old, I can't (expletive) see, but I could play better than some of my guys tonight," Heat coach Pat Riley said after the Bobcats built a 30-point lead en route to a 91-76 victory Tuesday night.

I tend to agree. but for 6 points, this 2:1 shit is irritating...should be at least 25 cents more.

anyway, just wanted to warn you that I like this one too.....especially with Swift injured. How does he start an nba game on any squad?

 

[JPicks]

The difference between Swift and Kurt Thomas manning down the middle for the Sonics is night/day. I think the books are smart to offer a low ML here even though it's no good for us.

I'm typically not a trend guy but these really speak for themselves.


MIA are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.
MIA are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Under is 7-1 in MIA last 8 overall.

 

[redbearde]

...also...

In this series, road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Heat are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.
SuperSonics are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.

...for what it's worth.

 

[bee172]

gl today JP

 

[xpression syst_m]

If the 1H goes under, the game will go under. The Pacers like a virgin will use up all their energy right after the first tip-off and will have nothing left in the 2H.

Pacers and Sonics went to the same summer school this year; only worry about the 1st halves:tiphat:

 

[JPicks]

Magic +3' (Greek)

Reasoning here.

Pistons -2'

I've already lost about 15 (maybe not that many) small road chalks this year and I'm going to go for another. This feels very similar to my bet on the Suns under last night.


Still looking at the Sonics with Wade playing. Hoping for something greater than 7 though.

 

[SF_capper]

GL on many with you