Wednesday 01.27.16 NBA discussion thread

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The Spurs can suck my manhood
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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL - WED 1/27[/h][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Wed 1/27[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]501[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Phoenix Suns[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+16 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 209 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]502[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Cleveland Cavaliers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-16 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 209 1.952[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Wed 1/27[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]503[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Denver Nuggets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+8.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 209.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]04:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]504[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Boston Celtics[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-8.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 209.5 1.952[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Wed 1/27[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]505[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Philadelphia 76ers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+12 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 202 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]506[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Detroit Pistons[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-12 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 202 1.952[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Wed 1/27[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]507[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Houston Rockets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+10.5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]508[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]San Antonio Spurs[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-10.5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Wed 1/27[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]509[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Los Angeles Clippers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+3 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 209 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]510[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Atlanta Hawks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-3 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 209 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Wed 1/27[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]511[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Oklahoma City Thunder[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-8.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 210 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]512[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Minnesota Timberwolves[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+8.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 210 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Wed 1/27[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]513[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Charlotte Hornets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 191 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]06:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]514[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Utah Jazz[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 191 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Wed 1/27[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]515[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Dallas Mavericks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+15.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 215 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]516[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Golden State Warriors[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-15.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 215 1.952[/TD]
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Big card today, but as far as bets that I like...

Spurs ATS - Spurs are 6 - 0 ATS off a loss this season... But the line is huge. Maybe will bet the huge number, but teaser more likely - Under TT Rockets an option as well - after the way Spurs played on defense on Monday... Pop won't be happy.
Over in Cleveland - will buy in to Lue's talks about faster pace. Not coming near this huge line.
Hawks - Clips play 5th game in 7 days and off a very close win. TT Under on the Clips option as well - since many trends support it. Hate the fact that I missed the -3 line... will probably play -3.5 and -4 as well, but obviously... prefer it to come back down...
Under 191 in Utah - Both teams like overtimes lately, including between the two - so scary... but... teams played 9 days ago and needed an OT to go over 187 points total... Charlotte been alternating Unders and Overs, so it's Under time :)

Like the Nuggets here, but Boston are good at covering big numbers...
 
agree, but CLE-PHO last few meetings all went Unders. PHO+16.5 seems a lot. they only lost by 4 vs CLE
Spurs -10 might be the best DD fav of the day huge bounce back mode and game is tv prime time so Under with 3 unders refs might be interesting. previous 2 meetings have been very polarized in terms of pts (172 pts and 224 pts).

but biggest spot of the day for me without doubt is GS-DAL U215: A and line>10 and rest=0 and P:UH and P:season=season and total>=210 and division!=o:division and 2007<=season
the U/O is 24-1 in this spot and no match reached more than 218 pts scored.
Last meeting went Under this season :205 pts which is 10 pts of value. GS has more Unders@home than on the road. DAL is 15-9 U/O off a win
Games is prime time and this season i've tracked this season that HF and Unders in prime time NT games are 22-18 U/O for 55% U/O

real question is: can GS off a huge blowout win vs spurs and possible letdown, win by 16+ points when they lost by 23 vs dallas. it would be a 39+ points swing differential from last meeting but NBA is where amazing happens as they say.
 
Curry wasn't playing then and GSW are on fire now. Made a mistake of taking Spurs in a teaser and Cleveland on Christmas - not going to make another one - till GSW will cool off and they will...
 
divol said:
Big card today, but as far as bets that I like...

Spurs ATS - Spurs are 6 - 0 ATS off a loss this season... But the line is huge. Maybe will bet the huge number, but teaser more likely - Under TT Rockets an option as well - after the way Spurs played on defense on Monday... Pop won't be happy.
Click to expand...

Teams go into post partum depression after playing Warriors, but maybe Spurs are immune because of good coaching...on the other hand, Howard might or might not play, Josh Smith is basking in a cavalry-to-the-rescue reinforcement honeymoon, and in general the Rockets squirrel their way between forceful efforts and pathetic lay-downs in some kind of completely indecipherable sequence. To me there are an excessive number of moving targets involved in this game...
 
pip2 said:
Teams go into post partum depression after playing Warriors, but maybe Spurs are immune because of good coaching...on the other hand, Howard might or might not play, Josh Smith is basking in a cavalry-to-the-rescue reinforcement honeymoon, and in general the Rockets squirrel their way between forceful efforts and pathetic lay-downs in some kind of completely indecipherable sequence. To me there are an excessive number of moving targets involved in this game...
Click to expand...

Agree, you never ever know which Rockets team you will get.
 
off a loss spurs won all their next game by double digits this season and Home favs of 10+ off an Away loss and off a 25+pts loss are 76%ATS ( p:AL and H and line<=-10 and p:margin<=-25 and 2007<=season)

i would prefer taking spurs 1st half -5 than taking a teaser in NBA which is not working as good as NFL teasers
 
I agree about Rockets. One crazy team... off two wins... maybe fade time... still thinking...
 
Terry Stotts has gone 134-102 ATS (56.8%) on the 2nd half line when trailing at halftime. That's the best record in our database. #Blazers
 
In our database, the Mavericks have never been larger than a 12.5-point underdog. They're currently +17 tonight against the Warriors.
 
Dubs have lost their last 4 ATS off a 20+ point home win.

The most recent being the massively inflated 'revenge' game vs the Bucks.
 
wizardofodd said:
how come? Wouldnt Indy be a good situation play tomorrow?

If hawks win, I think we get a better line on Indy
Click to expand...


The line doesn't matter as much as it matters that the Hawks go in to tomorrow off a win.

Hawks have two days off after tomorrow before a big divisional matchup with the heat. They gotta win today for us!
 
nbafan88 said:
The line doesn't matter as much as it matters that the Hawks go in to tomorrow off a win.

Hawks have two days off after tomorrow before a big divisional matchup with the heat. They gotta win today for us!
Click to expand...

Situation is stronger if they lose according to the numbers.
 
Pacers also have their second game off a road trip... Wouldn't be in a hurry for a bet there...
 
I'm glad I caught Hawks -3.5... Two points move without any injury... very strange...
 
There were a lot of talks, about how Gubert and Favors complete each other on defense. Fully expect Under on TT Charlotte now that both are playing...
 
Great (daily) thread, much appreciated. I don't dabble much too much in NBA betting but there's always great insights on this. Thanks.
 
Was just thinking that. They can have problems against guard who really attacks the rim.
Long season ahead of us... too early to claim anything...
 
emkee said:
The only team that can actually challenge the Dubs this season is the Thunder.
Click to expand...


I don't see it. OKC doesnt have the depth or the intelligence to beat the warriors. Would be an interesting matchup with the thunder's bigs but I just dont think they win more than one game is a 7 game series
 
nbafan88 said:
I don't see it. OKC doesnt have the depth or the intelligence to beat the warriors. Would be an interesting matchup with the thunder's bigs but I just dont think they win more than one game is a 7 game series
Click to expand...

Depth is not an issue, it's coaching and chemistry. If Billy D can somehow get his shit together over the next few months they're a chance.

One-two punch of KD and Russ is good enough, series wouldn't go less than 6.
 
I don't know and I think that Rockets also don't know...

Ended up playing Utah + Okc and SA as ML parlay and added teaser on Minny +14 in Minnesota...

Took Over in Cleveland, Hawks and Under in Utah...
 
emkee said:
Depth is not an issue, it's coaching and chemistry. If Billy D can somehow get his shit together over the next few months they're a chance.

One-two punch of KD and Russ is good enough, series wouldn't go less than 6.
Click to expand...
After watching the Thunder defense get shredded by both the Nets and Knicks this week, you'd basically need 1 of 2 things to happen: for OKC to score 120+ each game (and even that might not be enough), or for the Warriors offense to go into a complete funk. Even the half decent pieces they have on defense in Ibaka and Adams don't really impact the Warriors game that much.
 
Any reason pistons don't pop 110-115 pts tonight? Seem to be a nightmare matchup for Philly, if I remember last season the pistons put up a ton of points vs Philly in their games. Philly pushing the ball so why not an over?
 
Dallas is the only team that the Warriors haven't beat this season.

That's all the motivation the warriors need....
 
the problem with taking the clippers is its their last game of this RT and yesterday was their emotional victory off the blake situation... tonight could be a major letdown
 
hugh613 said:
After watching the Thunder defense get shredded by both the Nets and Knicks this week, you'd basically need 1 of 2 things to happen: for OKC to score 120+ each game (and even that might not be enough), or for the Warriors offense to go into a complete funk. Even the half decent pieces they have on defense in Ibaka and Adams don't really impact the Warriors game that much.
Click to expand...

That's the thing, there's so much room for improvement in the Thunder. They have arguably the best roster in the league.

Again, if they happened to get in sync heading into the playoffs and KD obviously remains healthy, they'll be dangerous.

And again, it's a big ask with Billy D, I know.

The way he coached last night was laughable, must be the worst coach in the league at distributing minutes to his roster.

There is no balance.

Having Monty Williams as your #1 assistant doesn't help.

Thunder didn't look too bad against them last season with both KD and RW on the floor.
 
How in the world do the thunder have the best roster in the league?

The bench might be the worst of playoff teams to be quite honest
 
nbafan88 said:
How in the world do the thunder have the best roster in the league?

The bench might be the worst of playoff teams to be quite honest
Click to expand...

The honor of having the worst bench of potential contenders goes to the Clippers and Cavs.

Thunder bench not at all bad, just poorly coached and managed.
 
The clippers bench isn't as bad as people think. Pierce is going to amazing in the playoffs. Okc's bench is disgusting IMO. Especially when it gets to playoff caliber opposition. Don't see it.
 
emkee said:
That's the thing, there's so much room for improvement in the Thunder.
Click to expand...
True but, at the same time, you can't just wave a magic wand and turn guys like Kantner, Singler and Waiters into elite defenders. I mean, granted, with the Warriors having won last season, maybe we've turned the corner a bit on the whole "defense wins championships" debate, but you do have to be able to play at least some defense.
 
When it gets to playoff time the depth is not as important as during the regular season but you still need key bench contributions. Who on the bench of okc can you count on if Durant has a poor shooting night?


The Warriors bench consists of guys that would start on most teams
 
Bench has no structure in OKC, they could be decent but this team was and still is a victim of bad coaching.

You know a team is well-coached when it's get the best out of it's role players, i.e Spur, C's, Pacers, Raps, GS.

Balance and chemistry of the Dub's is second-to-none, starters through to bench and therein lies their greatest strength.

Spurs' starters have less production than their bench.

Cavs' starters have way more production than their bench which is bottom 3 in the league.

Clippers' starting-5 is the best in the league but their bench is again bottom 3.

Thunder have the biggest room for improvement, their starters and bench are both just below the top-tier so it's there if they want it.

So OKC, imo are the only real threat to the Dubs repeating.
 
So too sum it up, it's the Dubs 'ship to lose this season barring injury and Billy Donovan not being Scotty Brooks 2.0 in the 2nd half of the season.

#dubsdynasty
 
<iframe src="https://vine.co/v/iiV3XQ1KXXX/embed/simple" width="600" height="600" frameborder="0"></iframe><script src="https://platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js"></script>
 
edou1x said:
agree, but CLE-PHO last few meetings all went Unders. PHO+16.5 seems a lot. they only lost by 4 vs CLE
Spurs -10 might be the best DD fav of the day huge bounce back mode and game is tv prime time so Under with 3 unders refs might be interesting. previous 2 meetings have been very polarized in terms of pts (172 pts and 224 pts).

but biggest spot of the day for me without doubt is GS-DAL U215: A and line>10 and rest=0 and P:UH and P:season=season and total>=210 and division!=o:division and 2007<=season
the U/O is 24-1 in this spot and no match reached more than 218 pts scored.
Last meeting went Under this season :205 pts which is 10 pts of value. GS has more Unders@home than on the road. DAL is 15-9 U/O off a win
Games is prime time and this season i've tracked this season that HF and Unders in prime time NT games are 22-18 U/O for 55% U/O

real question is: can GS off a huge blowout win vs spurs and possible letdown, win by 16+ points when they lost by 23 vs dallas. it would be a 39+ points swing differential from last meeting but NBA is where amazing happens as they say.
Click to expand...

From the Dallas side of things, it sets up great for a Golden State cover. Mavs played last night and will be resting players.

Great angle on the under. I think I'll give it a shot.
 
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