Wed NBA

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Last nite:
Sides & totals 4-2 +11.32u
1st Half : 0-2 -2.20
2nd H : 1-0 +4.00

Not bad cant complain. Have to update my Jan record..always more delightful after winning days...Expanded my system to 1 -6 unit wagers..

The one play that stands out early is

Spurs -8.5 -105 {6units} certainly wait and do better .

We know I am about taking advantage of what I deem as bad lines. Naturally I use all the situational edges when looking at games but the main goal is beat the line and get value. Okay this sets up alot like Hou/Dal tonite . The better team is looking to avenge an earlier road loss in which it was road chalk . Understand that road chalk means you basically are significantly better then your opponent. Now what I think is great here is LAL recently slumping on the road..losing @ Memphis and Charlotte as chalk , plus a blowout loss in Houston who had double revenge. Spurs really arent playing to potential but have looked good at times recently especially on defense. The 1st meeting had Odom in the lineup and still the books had that set as Spurs laying -4.5 in LA. You can check it out but I had LA that nite thinking the home boyz were being undervalued. Well now Odom & Brown are out and the line is just 4 points higher with home court swinging towards SA. So yeah it seems high but really isnt. I dont have this line off much but expected -9.5 here so if we get -8 thats some decent value..in my comparisons a pt or two is value...

SA has played stellar D of late and LA hasnt played any. The only elite team LA played away w/o Odom was dallas +9 and pushed. So like tonite I expect the home team to control the 2nd Half. LAL played @ Hou and @ Sac catching 5 points...does 8 look high based on that ? In fact SA was -5 to Dallas recently..okay they lost SU and I had Dallas but the point is dont get into the mentality its alot of points...remember what SA did to Utah laying 7.5....expect the same thing here.....


BOL , there is always more{Kings as +4.5 tasty..}
 
GL on the spurs play Nuts. I'm liking it myself. Never been truly convinced by Lakers on the road especially against a a slightly rested Spurs team with revenge on their minds and off a loss. hehe
 
GL Nut. I don't think these Spurs carry the same presence they once did, but they are still pretty damn solid. My fear is that Lakers and Kobe go all-out tonight, and then tomorrow is the blowout spot at Dallas. If this one loses, I'd consider going right back to the well with Dallas tomorrow. GL!
 
Thanks Driver - Good Luck today.

JoeBren er I mean Killa - Anytime you have a superstar the magnitude of Kobe its always makes them an attractive dog. My feeling though is generally I dont look at indivual matchups which will seem odd to most and rather concentrate on overall team play. LA just like Houston has struggled with medicore competition on the road. You wonder how SA and PHO could dismantle Memphis and LAL lost SU. Its about there lack of defense and really speaks of there quality of play. It wasny just 1 bad game for them. Then for me its about the spread and where it is vs where I think it should be. That Hou / Dal game is a great example of both. TMAC goes bananas last nite after 3 real shit games IMO. He never even really went cold but as soon he missed a couple shots the better team went the other way and scored on those possessions. With him not exploding the rest of the team looked lost and momentum swung. So if Kobe is HOT tonite who will be that second fiddle? His ability to dominant is awesome but it always leaves everyone else uninvolved , so come 3rd or 4th quarter what teammate will be in a groove? The Spurs have clearly slipped but still qualify IMO as one of the top 3 NBA teams. I absolutely agree that tmrw would again be a great spot to fade LAL depending on what happened here...I expect that line around -9 or -9.5. With SA this year they have done fairly well beating a team in revenge spots. Of note Kobe's last two in SA 11 for 27 and 9 of 33 from the floor for 20 / 60 {33.3%} shooting. Further back he was 6 of 19 and 5 of 16 in San Antonio. So he is 31 of 95 from the floor past 2 years there. It seems the games they played well in @ SA Odom or Caron Butler had huge days , so they arent around now. The 1st meeting this year it seems Kwame hurt them on the offensive glass and Odom played fairly well. Defensively LAL only stopped Michael Finley with SA hitting 51%. For this spot I just think SA is cheap .....GL bro..

Troutman - Honestly dont know yet. I will be playing them and I do NOT fear that line going below 4 worst case scenario...still working on these games ....Good Luck.

Fondy & 3 gamblers - Thanks and Good Luck.....

Lizard - We are obviously thinking along the same lines.... hopefully thats a good thing....Good Luck..
 
Tough to not like Utah here. Pistons only wins past 10 Philly , Boston and NO also known as the dredge of the Eastern Conference who have less healthy bodies then your local elementary school. Utah's last road games OT loss and buzzer beater. My problem is that I feel Webber will play and disagree with the 'haters' who dont think he will play well in his hometown. I suspect his presence could be a lift for the team especially the crowd. Utah has a good history versus DET but they could play well and lose late by 4 or 5 and you lose so that angle is irrevlant IMO. Ihad this line @ -2.5 / -3 so no value in that sense at this time just the slighest lean towards Utah but they simply dont know how to win on the road yet...DET did lose in OT last game....actually at the moment more interested in the UNDER here....highest total bewteen them in awhile....I am sure I will have more to say on it later...
 
i agree...lil wiggle room for Jazz here...woulda like to see something in the range of 4-5 here....


sloane has tried to get his team to compete more on road and close games and mostly trying to get AK47 back into all star mode...as he puts it, he's just floatin out there and not attacking.

Jazz desperate for a road win...woulda like it if Det won minny game last time out.

waiting to see where money goes...
 
check their recent over/under performances in the last few games...

and in their last few against each other. Lots of points getting scored...
 
Sorry to see this. Different sides tonight as I like Lakers. Just comes down to team A plays well vs quality teams and team B looks good beating up the weak. Lakers lost by 9 at Dallas playing 4 in 6. Brown is the only line up difference and in that game he was 2-7 with 4 rebounds. Lakers have not covered a spread in their last 4. Do not see that as a good thing for you. Spurs to me are a smoke and mirrors team. You look at the box scores at the teams they beat and the spots they cover in. Early in the season I was a little bit nuts playing NO vs them. Teams of that kind are what they live by. Not the Lakers. Really not any good team that just stands their ground and respects themselves. Only good win for Spurs for some time I see is vs Wiz a b-b for the Wiz when Gilbert was hurt. You know the recent history between the 2 teams. There is no fear no intimidation going in tonights game. If the Spurs win I will not be surprised. If they cover That would surprise me. GL
 
One more thing above you mentioned the loss at Griz. This is just something in my opinon that is hard for you. The Lakers lost that game because it would have been a fifth consecutive win and after 3 wins it is very hard for them to win and virtually inpossible after 4. This is something I posted before that game occured. It was a phoney result drawing conclusions from it just does not work. These team tendencies are strange but---what isn't GL
 
Seem unable to stop going on about this. You list the loss to Bobcats and Griz. These games are for the Lakers like going out for a drink and relaxing. They do not measure themselves by these teams and giving away a couple of games a season like this is a given that means nothing to them. The Houston game they had beaten them twice and the teams get along. They do measure themselves against Dallas and the Spurs and there will be no lack of effort.
 
tuck321-

A major letdown spot for Lakers that game no doubt. They were also off the Mavs upset. Watching Memphis lately this team is clueless. They dont have the slightest idea of how to defend. Any quality team to should beat them IMO. While situational the Lakers may have been fucked there is no reason to not be able to overcome that IMO(good teams do that)...when looking clearly at who your opponent is. Trust me no conclusion is been drawn soley from that performance. What happened to LA in Houston , in Sacramento , In Charlotte ...?? Its not about 1 performance as I said this wasnt an abberation IMO.

I definetly disagree with Lakers play well vs quality teams?? What LA does at home going 18-4 is absolutely of no use to me. Its there 7-9 away record that interests me. Who did they play well against on the road? The Dallas loss has three keys : Kobe Bryant shot of 9 for 18 for 33 pts which cannot be expected based on past results in SA(look at Kobe's last 4 in SA) , Stackhouse was out for Dallas leaving them with a thin bench and Brown though minor played for LAL . The key difference bewteen is SA and DAL is one has contained Kobe in the past and one doesnt have an answer for him yet....thats what makes SA a tougher matchup then Dallas for the Lakers.

If LA is so good why are they only 6 pt favs at home to Denver? Devnver would be at least +13 in SA..Why are they failing to cover small spreads vs teams like Orlando and Miami at home? Medicore teams like Sac and Hou were -5 against them....they got smoked in one and needed a few OT to outlast the other. Why cant they win let alone cover small numbers vs bad teams like Char , Memphis ... even Miami on XMas...there quality win was winning @ Minny thanks to a huge 4th quarter at a time when minny was struggling....which by the way there were 5 pt dogs in...at that point in the beginning of Odom's absence they were undervalued. I am big believer in outcome vs spread...big believer in what a spread says about a team...SA would never be a home dog....

The thing about the Lakers not covering actually is a great thing for me. See why do teams not cover spreads? Generally its cause the difference bewteen perception and reality. To beat Dallas at home they needed to play an exceptional game and they did to there credit. What was there excuse vs Miami and Orl...?? teams that would be double digit dogs in SA...luckily they hit 56% from three vs Miami...

As for SA beating bottomfeeders....Wash and Utah dont seem like bad teams to me...and I would not think LAL is better then either of the two teams..SA handled both as 7.5 and 9.5 pt favs recently...as for gilbert being hurt kind of odd to me he suddenly gets healthy bewteen Sat nite and Monday afternoon...that wasnt why they lost or he didnt play bad IMO...

I agree SA is not what it used to be but LAL is not as good as they may appear either.....I am confident this line should be 9 or 9.5 worst case..and expect 11 or 12 pt win..


Redbearde-

Yes, thats why they bumped it up from previous levels. I just dont think DET has much reliable scoring outside of Rip who has been having big days already. Utah cannot guard opposing guards who get to the FT line...see Michael Redd, Gilbert Arenas and the other guys who have hurt them. Rip is already doing that and they are still barely scrapping 90 pts...I think both teams loaded at the forward / center spots wont find the interior an easy place to score....

At this time thinking more of a low 90's game...but nothing concrete..
 
tuck321 said:
Seem unable to stop going on about this. You list the loss to Bobcats and Griz. These games are for the Lakers like going out for a drink and relaxing. They do not measure themselves by these teams and giving away a couple of games a season like this is a given that means nothing to them. The Houston game they had beaten them twice and the teams get along. They do measure themselves against Dallas and the Spurs and there will be no lack of effort.
Click to expand...

Disagree....sure the motivation is different but they still losing to a bad team. Absolutely agree that Houston was a revenge spot so what makes that different then tonite? They can measure themselves all they want they just arent much better then medicore and cant defend anyone..

I appreciate the fact your against me here and listing your resoning. It gets two solid opinions on different sides out there . I just dont agree with your assessment that LA rises up against quality teams on the road.....the main reason they can hang around with Dallas is Kobe gives the Mavs trouble.....simply refer to his last 4 games in SA and thats what I owuld expect here....GL and if you got more keep it coming....at the end of the day I still feel the line is soft and that SA is a tougher matchup then Dallas.....
 
7 & 7:30 PM Games :

Sacramento at Toronto

> Call me crazy but just what makes Toronto the better team on paper? All season long Sac has been lined like they were the teams of years past. Instead of a team in search of a leader . Who is the go to guy ...Mike Bibby , Ron Artest or Kevin Martin..? I think Martin is the best offensive player of the three but he doesnt have the star power of the others. What makes this critical for Sac is they dont have any big men or size especially with Brad Miller's mysterious season. He is listed as probable but who knows. So late games they depend heavily on jump shooting for those big baskets. I thought they played well @ MSG on Monday in a tough spot...1st game of an East Coast trip that effectively had them playing at 10AM there time. They have lost 6 straight and 3 in OT at home. Besides the knick losses they lost to Cle and @ Portland where they fell to pieces in the second half.

Basically its going to be interesting here cause this game will tell alot. I cant say that Sac's effort isnt there but they need a better approach. Not sure exactly why Williamson didnt play much vs NYK but the mad 30 and 10 the prior game...tend to lean towards the Over here but not crazy about. With Tor they have beaten alot of garbage teams and I tend to not make much of there Sunday afternoon games which the opponent is at a huge disadvantage...Sac plays well vs Tor and in Tor so this should be a good one.....With the Tor big men playing better much different matchup this time around with Sac's lack of size but it was encouraging to see Abdur-Rahim play well....

Looking at Kings +4.5 and ML , over 200....

New York @ Wash :

Tough game to figure. The line is where it should be basically have it -8.5 . I just dont know if NYK can win a quality road game yet. They come home strong lose to Charlotte and squeak by Sac on Monday...they must defend the Wizards 3 pt shooters...The total will depend on competitiveness of the game so I will wait till halftime to get involved. Hard to see more then 220 pts if its one sided and NYK still has to show us they can score 100+ consistently on the road. Based on earlier meetings this number is INFLATED IMO...

NJ @ Char:

I think MLK day might be effecting this line. I cant see how NJ is much more then -2 here looking at there recent road play. Bobkitties will either win SU or NJ covers...

The Bobcats could be w/o Sean may who didnt pratice but see Gerald Walace return here who did pratice. Really just fading NJ as a fat favorite despite there recent hot streak. If Chi doent fall to pieces twice then how HOT does NJ look? I owuld guess the trade today had the finishing touches put on Mondays game in NJ....have to think OVER as Char doesnt defend....

Utah @ Det

As I stated every so slightly lean towards Utah but probably staying away. I am thinking about an Under here. I agree with Redbearde the past few Utah games make you understand why you see a 190 total. However Utah also played three of the most uptempo offenses in the league in Wash , Sea and Miami which feature 3 players Arenas , Allen and Wade who can shot well but get to the line easily.....thats Utahs defensive shortcoming as they are slowing the game down and putting teams on the FT line way to much. Now Rip Hamilton certainly fits that criteria which could be extended back four games to include Dallas and Diggler but so much of the scoring has already fallen on his shoulders I dont see more out of him tonite. Dont know what to expect from Webber who will probably start at the center spot...expecting much more good then bad...

Probably will stay away but I could see the value in a under if we see 96-91 game..
 
8 and 8 :30 PM :

Much more simplistic approach:

Philly @ Memphis:

We all know how the Grizz will play and they may try to make a better effort on defense after the last embarrasment. Whihch doesnt man less points its means contested baskets and no easy fast-break points. So I will play the Over its a matter of when I place it and ofr how manyunits 3,4,5..not a 6 unit play though...Just two teams who have some gunners who have played absolutely no defense could see huge days from Korver , Green and Iggy ....

Chicago @ Milwaukee

While MILW is shorthanded I dont like Chiin this spot. They are playing well but a place they have struggled in going 1-15 since his Airness retired. Now after a big home win that is sandwiched bewteen Utah I can see letdown. Not to mention they go from home dog to road chalk.....So taking Milw as a value / situational play...these injured teams I can guess the lines but really dont feel comfortable in wondering what they should be...Bulls still a poor road team last I watched.. What I am contemplating is an Under here or 1st H under..... for Milw to be in this it has to be low 90's IMO...late FTs would concern me....

Still looking at ATL @ Minny....dont think a side will interest me. I do think the UNDER looks attractive. Would figure ATL around 85 points here...not quite sure yet though....

The rest...Pho @ Houston...really not interested in looking at till we know McGradys deal. The 9PM you have my feelings on which leave the two boring games @ 10 PM....and I have yet to look at those...
 
Thanks rufus...and BOL!

Not a very strong card IMO lots of what I would consider coin flips....

On a side note just saw Dall -10 vs LAL tmrw which only reiterates my feelings about this line being soft tonite. I had expected -9.5 worst case -9 and we got -10.....so I feel my thoughts on the lines are correct...
 
gl nut love the insight I have to agree with the spurs play I definately feel the KINGS are a very much live doggie here bol to you
 
antmagic219 said:
gl nut love the insight I have to agree with the spurs play I definately feel the KINGS are a very much live doggie here bol to you
Click to expand...
hahahaha i was going to post that just now you beat me to it
 
Tonite is Wed and thats means I have my own hoops game...the twist is tonite I have two back to back so probably wont be around till 9:30 once I leave...! So wont be an updates from me till then

Using 1 to 6 unit rankings

Kings +5 -110 {2units} ML +175 {1/2unit} L-2.70

> the over looks attractive here but I cant get past 5 straight unders for Sac away. I expect one team to break 100 but 102-96 doesnt do much good...to close ...probaly should be an under since 200 seems worst case scenario in this game..

Bobcats +155 ML {1.5units} L-1.50
Over 191.5 -110 {Strong Lean}
1st Half +2 -115 {1unit} -1.45

> If you recall Killa's post weeks ago about certain teams regarding there ATS records you will understand this play. Some teams either dont cover or win SU regardless of the size of spread....they tend to be bad teams..
The total is biased towards a 1st H under so I will wait till halftime till decide....if I will play a 2nd H over....

I just think this line is a bit big. NJ is playing well but I am not so sure it has spilled over to the road yet. Charlotte outside of the last game was playing solid ball. They might miss Sean May but gain Gerald Wallace. NJ has revenge but the faced this situation last year losing to Char at home and then managed just a 1pt win in Char..would elan towards NJ 1st quarter though....

> If anything I will wait till halftime to touch the Wash vs NYK matchup...possibly an opposite total play of how the 1st half went.......Wash seems to start slowly and that may be NYK best opportunity and your best play on the dog....

Jazz ML +130 {1unit} +1.30

> Simple value play. I dont actually see an edge to either side . Utah cant win on the road and Det hasnt defended home court ...I think Webber wil play well here but taking a shot..after thinking it over I wont take the UNDER but still like it...just dont see the value in a 1st H under ....gonna pass

Bucks +6 -110{2units} +210 {1/2unit} -2.70
Under 192.5 -110 {2units} +2.00

>Simply fading Chi in a place it struggles 1-15 SU since Jordan retired. While playing a sandwich game with Utah on-deck . It does help Chi has struggled all season on the road. For the total we know about Milw injuries but look at Chi defense past few...expect this in the low 90's with Bulls puling it out late...SU that is

Over 219.5 -110 Memphis {4units} +4.00

> Two of the worst defenses I have seen fiddled with soild athletes and three point shooters....Memphis should get to 115 here but I am not ssure they win SU....

Under 186 -110 Minnesota {2units} -2.20

> Unders are helped by favs covering big numbers ...really not excited about ATL breaking 85 here tonite and Wolves are far from an offensive juggernaut.......

> Pho @ Houston....looks like MCGrady is Out. No play then. I am sure there is more value with him out then him playing...look for Head to play more and Snyder possibly if his conditioning is okay....no interest......Nash says this team has to remind itself to stay motivated versus inferior teams but this is a hard sell to find reasons for Houston.....

Spurs -8.5 -110 {6units}

> just read the thread..

Late nite...Leaning towards Cle here -3. Its understandable why people fear the backend situation but if you look the last 3 times they have played okay in that spot. So I dont think has much to do with anything...thinking a 6,7 pt Cle win that goes under barely....94-87...type...please feel feree to discuss or make points Iwill get back to them when I return...

> The trade game with revenge.....LAC -9.5 -110 {3units}

The deal left injury-plagued Golden State with just six healthy players on its roster for Wednesday night's game against the Los Angeles Clippers - two fewer than the NBA minimum required to avoid forfeiting a game. The Warriors were expected to sign another player to a 10-day contract and suit up one of their injured players to avoid the forfeit.

Now it says 6 but I only know 5 ...Eliis and Davis in the backcourt , Azubuikeand Barnes , Biedrins who is the 6th healthy player...???? Anyone......this shorthanded to an extreme! It seems like Golden State is punting this game.....
 
Last edited:
Thanks antmagic and cakeoff.....my concern is when we all think Sac is a live doggie cause Tor is growing in confidence and consistency. It does present matchup issues for the Kinsg as well....BOL!

This is not a great card as you can see the smaller type plays outside of two throught my card....seems to me all the totals correct which means an under nite or over nite.....no inbewteen..
 
Thanks bets...knew O'Bryant was in the 'minors' thought it might be him...still seems if there was another roster player available if they reported correctly....
 
Shaved 1/2 units off Charlotte ML and Milw spread plays just cause IW as uneasy about the line moves....thats it lockd in and loaded now.....
 
out the door so GL...

NCAAB : yes I am rushing these plays.....

over 142 {3units} @ Arkansas
Over 145 {5units} @ Vandy
 
Just getting in now....gonna wait on the Cavs till halftime hopefully they are I think...

Always seems when we all like the same dogs they dont cash.....thats life...BOL
 
I am with you on that but I just might play the entire game...best chance I would think is for GS to compete for a half then they will eventually have to fall apart...

It just seemed to me that GS was really not concerned with this game.....understandable they have injuries and cant wait to make the deal and risk for those guys getting hurt...

Think I will be on LAC..
 
Well I went from happy with SA up71 -65 with 2minutes to go in the 3rd to wondering what the hell happened...SA simply shit the bed ....

2nd H:

Cavs -3 -120 {5units}
Over 90.5 -110 {2units}

Looking to get the 2nd H Under in LAC....
 
Congrats to tuck and the Laker backers they outplayed the home team when it counted. Never was concerned until Vlad hit those 2 late 3's to close the third out..SA never recovered..

2nd H
Under 103 -105 {3units}
LAC -4.5 -110 {2units}

Expecting GS to fall apart late
 
I am exhausted and kinda pissed at Cle right now so getting some early rest.....BOL the rest of the way....
 
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