Wed NBA

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Really disgusted at myself after nailing what I see as easy and give it back on stupid NYK and Sea adds! Losing about 5 plays by a point sure didnt help...Bulls ML , NYK 2nd H push thanks to Starbury missing 2 late FTs down 12 , 101 on a 102 total , and the list goes on...

Sides/Totals 6-5 +5.64u
1st Q: +1.29u
1st H: -1.07
2nd H -9.20

Pho @ Tor :

Interesting game as Bosh returns and Ford is questionable though. Well we have Raps on some rest with Pho having to fly to Tor after a nice comeback win in Chicago. The back to back isnt an issue as the minutes were kept in check outside of the Matrix's. WHo happens to be a beast in backends avg 23+ ppg..Nash returning to Canada should also provide a boost to the team. The Bosh return and Ford uncertainity throw a wrence into my thoughts expecting 7 or 7.5 though...lets see what we get..

Milw @ Wash:

The rematch with a twist. Arenas hurt his shoulder and pratice and he said yesterday he was only 75% to play...very odd comment but hey its Gilbert! Bogut is questionable and so is Haywood which could lead to both teams going 'small' and running up and down the court all damn game...so this might be an angle to watch....with Arenas possibly less then 100% I will probably pass on a side as it would be tough for them to do it again to Wash....

Cleveland @ Boston :

Well the facts are Cle plays poorly in backends , plays poorly in Boston and letdown after last SA win...have to hope this goes higher and I get to grab some points. West moving into the starting lineup is helpful. Lebron has not played well in backends and he was all they had tonite and all theyhad in the 1st meeting dropping 38....Al Jefferson was still a boy! Pierce didnt play well had only 17 and they lost by 1. Wally and Szcerbiak both sat out( thats not hard since they are the same guy meant Wally and Jefferson!!!...I should really rad before I hit submit!)....really like Bos here!! An under seems likely with Cvas defense of late....

LAC @ Miami:

Really should just wait on Wade 's status. Would have to think LAC is -4 here......

GS @ Memphis:

Good spot for Memphis with GS here. However not interested in them atthis number....They didnt exactly play well vs Toronto who was -5.5 ...jumped out and fought off the raps who probably are still abit worse then GS at this point.....Warriors lack of depth is an issue....

SA @ Minny:

You hate to fade Spurs off a loss but you just might have to. Minny played them well for a half in SA then fell to pieces and usually play them tight at home..So lead towards the Wolves... maybe an Under even though Wolves score more at home...

Seattle @ Houston :

Sonics just dont play consistent ball on the road but the number is still big...probably an over though cause Sea doesnt defend and Ming is not around to slow it down...my best total so far.....

Philly @ Utah:

Sixers playing alot better past 3 games and off an upset against a rested Jazz club. With Utah not playing its best I had this line at about -10.5 so some value on the surface....like the over as well....

NYK @ Portland:

Well Blazers playing better and NY suddenly fading on the road...they dont play well in Portland but still have a hard time believing this should be worse then -3......Portland is a poor fav so far and recently lost to Boston and Philly....oh god lean Knicks....
 
You been watching our Knicks Nut? They have looked bad as hell, just no energy or scoring off the bench. We desperately need Nate and Richardson back. We just don't have the firepower right now, only 3 real guys who are giving anything at all on the offensive end in terms of scoring (Curry, Crawford, and either Frye or Marbury depending on the game). This team is really being exposed on the road right now, I'm not sure I can even take them tonight, when I normally would in this spot and with this line.
 
Unfortunately I have. Last nite inparticular I was disgusted at how they quit midway through the 4th quarter. Hopefully if I saw it so did the coaching staff which led to a postgame tongue-lashing. Last nite was really about defensive intensity and Free Throws. The could never stop Sac for an extended period of time and shot like 61% from the line. Curry could be a beast in the paint except two things: He misses very easy shots and dunks OFTEN plus he has been terrible from the line which allows teams to simply hack him. Crawford when he is good is ridiculous but when he is not which is 80% of the time he is awful...awful shot selection and ugly looking shots. Marybury gives you hope one nite and then misery the next. If I am Steph and its hard to hate on a local kid I make a point to drive the line and get to the Line cause thats when he seems to excel and get his jumper working. I think we really need Q badly though...quality defender who can shoot lights out is exactly what we lack right now. Jefferies on offense is almost like watching Shawn Bradley...David Lee is my hero cause he works hard on the glass. If they could just formulate some game plan and play consistent they would be alright but I just dont know...defensively they really cant stop anyone...

The whole problem with all NY teams and obviously I am not telling you anything new is they are usually riddled with talent and always give you that feeling they will be better the next game...which continues to drag action in on them and allows them to hardly get undervalued..its gonna be hard though to not take them tonite...GL

BOL Duy~!
 
I know what Im waitin on the books to throw me a david lee rebound prop so I can pound it. Books scared cuz they know he is a monster on them boards.
 
Sides :

Celtics +4 -110 {5units} +157 ML {unit}
Clippers -2 -110 {4units}
Wolves +4 -106 {4units} not in yet ML +165 {1/2u}



Thoughts on the rest : Wiz -4.5-110 , Grizz -4 +100 , Philly +12 -110 , NYK +6 +100 , Suns -7 -103 unless Ford plays...No opinion Hou / Sea

Totals:
Under 213.5 -110 Memphis {4units}
Over 185.5 -113 Houston {4units}

Lean: Over 213 Suns and Under 186.5 Boston

Team Totals :
Over 110-109 Suns
Over 92.5 -116 LAC
Und 104.5 -108 GS
Over 98 -112 Houston
Over 90 -113 Philly
 
Well LAC is now -5.5!!!

Props:
Ryan Gomes over 11 -112 ,Leans: Jefferson over 15.5 +110 , Over 6 +106 boards Gomes
 
SportsNut said:
Well LAC is now -5.5!!!

Props:
Ryan Gomes over 11 -112 ,Leans: Jefferson over 15.5 +110 , Over 6 +106 boards Gomes
Click to expand...

Hey Sportsnut
I also like the LAC pick, but at 5.5???

I was thinking of buying it down to 4.5, or maybe just taking the ML.
I am a newb at bball...so any suggestions?
 
Ford and Garbo are out for Toronto.

San Antonio should bounce back against Minny tonite. They dont often drop two and a row, and Pop will have them ready after getting ejected last nite in Cleveland.
 
twoface said:
Hey Sportsnut
I also like the LAC pick, but at 5.5???

I was thinking of buying it down to 4.5, or maybe just taking the ML.
I am a newb at bball...so any suggestions?
Click to expand...

I would wait till tip see exactly what these lineups will look like cause Mobley seems to be in question as well before I made a decision. There really is no reason to buy it to -4.5...if your betting them to win by 5 you should be just as comfortable they could do by 6..

Either bet the closing line or pass...I dont like paying two to 1 on the road for a ML...even shorthanded

If LAC has the same lineup as last nite and Miami is minues Wade , Posey , Walker , Riley and Jason Williams?? I am not concerned with that spread..being LAC is playing better and desperate for road wins..

Generally though if your being selective in your bets this is a game that is better to pass on with so much uncretainity.....BOL
 
Greencastle said:
Ford and Garbo are out for Toronto.

San Antonio should bounce back against Minny tonite. They dont often drop two and a row, and Pop will have them ready after getting ejected last nite in Cleveland.
Click to expand...

I figured that thanks though...really being cautious with that game have over 213 and Suns team over so far...

Should is a great word...but really my play is based more on the last 7 or 8 games then just 1. Most people didnt think they would drop two straight to Cleveland...I understand the logic but I feel SA is not playing well 5-3 last 8 losses to Cle , Hou and Milw..unimpressive wins vs ATL , Philly and Memphis all bottomfeeders IMO...they smoked Utah in a double bounceback spot ..off a loss and previous loss to Utah and smoked NO off a loss at home...so they have not lost 2 SU often but I feel like it just cant be a switch...you cant just continually decide to play better one nite then the other....its hard for me to see value other then SA tends to play well in these spots...but maybe those days are ending?

BOL
 
Looks like some controversary on our picks today, no arguement on any of your plays both sides have strong reasons to be played. S.A/Minny and Cle/Bos
Clippers looking really good though, -2 sweet f'n line!
 
Okay here are my updated thoughts:

Milw @ Washington :

In all seriousness how in the hell are we even entertaining Wash here? The best player on the team and probably one of the 5 best in the league has a bum shoulder. We have ZERO idea of how that will limit him . If anything should be looked at it should be Milw +5 or +4.5. The only REASON most people like Wash here is the revenge angle. One thing is Milwaukee did beat Minny twice in a weeks time so its not some impossible task. The game was close till the 4th quarter and now both teams have long rest {4days} but injuries : Bogut questionable , Haywood gametime decision and Arenas somewhere less then 100%. With the new ball this is one game I would be cautious of an over cause every single pt counts. If one guy is struggling with his feel for the ball it could fuck up everything. Also last meting no one got to the FT line which if they did would make the over look attractive. So really not touching much here but would play Bucks due to Arenas uncertain status..(+5 -110 / +172)

Pho @ Toronto :

Well Bosh should return but Garbosa and Ford are out it seems. How can you not like the Suns here. The line is fair was looking for 7 / 7.5 and Raps missing key players and Bosh had 1 full pratice . Nash returns to Canada...One concern is Tor played fairly well in PHO except for huge run they allowed.

Over 213 -110 {2units}
Over 110 -106 Suns team {2units}
1st Quarter Suns -2 -110 {2units}
1st Half -3.5 -109 Suns {unit}

LAC @ Miami:

I played this early on but now concerned. We get the bonus that Walker , Posey and Riler are out but Maggette and Mobley are now questionable. Those 2 are LAC second and third best offensive weapons. Miami is basically 4 guards with payton , Jason Williams , Koppano (could play the three?) and Quinn , the forwards are Dorrell Wright and Udonis Haslem with Zo and Doleac at center...You have to lean heavily towards an Under!

LAC -2 -110 {4units}

Cleveland @ Boston :

Nothing has changed for me here and the bonus is Donyell Marshall is questionable. Still lean Und 187.5....

Boston Celtics +4 -110 {5units} ML+157 {1unit}

Golden State @ Memphis:

Still on the sidelines for this one. Line is high but GS is really depleted by injuries .....we all saw who made their debut last nite for GS(Azubuike)...Baron Davis played all 48 minutes!! Rudy Yag is now questionable though......played the under cause memphis is playing faster paced and scoring more but 79 shots is not enough to break 214 points without a ton of FT's and GS has bombed its last two back to backs.

Under 213.5 -110 Mem {4units}

Houston @ Seattle :

Same deal here no interest in a side ....

Over 185.5 -113 {4units}


SA @ Minny :

Same as before...

Wolves +4.5 -110 {4units} ML +166 {1/2u}

Team Totals {2units} each
Und 104.5 -108 GS
Over 98 -112 Houston
Over 90 -113 Philly<!-- / message -->
Still looking at the late ones...
 
Last edited:
MX_259 said:
Looks like some controversary on our picks today, no arguement on any of your plays both sides have strong reasons to be played. S.A/Minny and Cle/Bos
Clippers looking really good though, -2 sweet f'n line!
Click to expand...

BOL...it happens...
 
Sides:

Clippers -2 -110 {4u} +5.5 -107 {1u} Win +2.93
Celtics +4 -110 {5u} ML +157 {1u} Win +4.00
Grizz -4 -104 {2u} WIn +2.00
Wolves +4.5 -110 {4u} ML +166{1/2u}Win +4.83
Philly +11.5 -107 {3u} ML +720 {1/4u}
Bucks +6.5 +100 {1.5u} ML +{1/2u} Win +1.00

Totals :
Over 213 -110 Suns {2u} Loss -2.20
Under 213.5 -110 memphis {4u} somewhat concerned about the move Loss -4.40
Over 185.5 -113 Houston {4u} Win +4.00
Over 192.5 -110 Philly {2u}

1st Quarter +0.43
Suns -2 -110 {2units} +2.00
Bucks ML +152 {1u}-1.00 +2 +104 {1u}+1.04
LAC Under 46.5 -115 {3u}-3.45
Boston ML +117 {1u}+1.17
Memphis -1.5 -105 {2u}-2.10
Minny +117 {1u}+1.17
Philly +3.5 +110 {1u} +1.10
NYK +2 -108 {1.5u} +1.50 ML +154 {1u} -1.00 (3/of 8 FTs)


1st Half +2.64
-3.5 -109 Suns {unit}+1.00
Bos +2 -111 (1u}+1.00
Minny +2 -102 {1u}+1.00
Memphis -2-110 {2u}-2.20
NYK +3.5 -108 {1u} +1.00ML +168 {1/2u} +0.84<!-- / message -->

Props : (0-2 -3.04)
Gomes Over 11 -102 {2units}
Lebron Und 28 +100 {unit}

Team Totals {2units} each
Und 104.5 -108 GS -2.16
Over 98 -112 Houston +2.00
Over 90 -113 Philly<!-- / message -->
Over 110 -106 Suns -2.12
 
Last edited:
Shaq or Wade playing?

Recent reports make me feel like the Heat will be super motivated for this game. Only thing is whose availible for them?
 
Thanks...

second Half:-0.70

Under 93.5 -110 Boston {2u}-2.20
LAC -0.5 -111 {1u} +1.00
Under 90 +103 Miami{1u}-1.00
Spurs -5 -121 {1u} hedge +1.00
Memphis ML -160 {2.5u} +2.50
Under 108.5 +100 {2u} -2.00

CBB (like 8 for 8 so far!) 2-0 +9.30 posted!!
Over 155 +110 Zaga {3units} Win +3.30
Over 73 1st Half -110 {2units} Win +2.00
2ndh :
Michigan +2 -114 {4u} Win +4.00
 
Last edited:
:hairout: :hairout: I hate tony parker anyway im lookin for some late game action but im hesitant cuz my knicks havent wonin portland in a few years:spank:
 
Ballsy call on Boston -- even with the back-to-back troubles Cleveland has had, they are one of those teams who sleep walk though the first half and then all of a sudden decide to play. Boston is not as bad as everyone thinks as Rivers makes them look worse then they really are with the lineups he puts out there at any given time. But, the players are to blame (at least tonight) for simply settling for jumpshots instead of going inside. The FT disparity between the 2 teams tells in part the story of why Cleveland will likely go on to win this one and perhaps cover. Still, plenty of time left in the 4th - hope they cover for you
 
boston is a frustrating team to play...they r settling for jumpers and they dont even shoot the rock all the well...they should have been up more, cavs tanked first half, cavs realized they were still in it a HT and decided...oh shit, if we play some we can beat them

the ft's margin as affinity states is crazy...king and gang will get all the calls, gang green are hacks with no cred wit officials so they continue to give away fouls....

with pierce they are barely average...w/o him they r just plain crap with no idea how to play 48 minutes of nba ball

win or lose tonite...celts r on my no play list at least until pierce is back
 
I was keeping quiet cause I didnt want to jinx it. Every since I read YesSir thread I had this sneaky feeling that Cle would win the game but not cover......
 
Retburj said:
we got lucky wit Celts bro...glad we won but lessoned learned for me
Click to expand...

I am satisfied..I bet to beat the line I really dont overly concern myself with the games.....hardly watch them anymore...there simply is no value in backing Cleveland on the road at more then -2 at the present moment..we got lucky in the end but Boston also won 3 of the 4 quarters..they could have faded and I thank for hanging tough and not sulking...I am notexactly interested in betting Boston to win though...this why people lose in the long run cause they walk away thinking Cle was still a good play cause the won by 3..its like almost winning the lotto...almost means you lost.....you guys should be happy you have to watch NY! Thanks for the support though appreciated...
 
oh i agree...i wager bad lines not so much the team...but on this play it was celts or no play...luckily it came thru


look for bad lines...research the stats and make the play, more times then not, you will cash that way
 
I am with yeah retburj , that damn Erin Andrews pic looks tasty....With ya all the way...it was Boston or pass for me as well....sometimes you feel more lucky when you watch every single second then just the overview....which is really hwy I stopped watching so much sports...Cavs went on a big run late 3rd and early 4th but then they faded.....at the end of the nite we won 3 Quarters...so we had right Cavs are abit overvalued still...as favs..and on teh road.....who else I am rooting for with ya??

Sorry Believe I missed being on Philly +11.5 and teh over I just passed...
 
Very close one, I'm glad the Celts pulled it out for you guys.

Also interesting to see the Knicks make a run in the 2nd quarter. I have watched very few Knick games and I am absolutely impressed at what a beast Curry is on offense, it's too bad for the Knicks that he doesn't always play with that same intensity on D.
 
affinity said:
Very close one, I'm glad the Celts pulled it out for you guys.

Also interesting to see the Knicks make a run in the 2nd quarter. I have watched very few Knick games and I am absolutely impressed at what a beast Curry is on offense, it's too bad for the Knicks that he doesn't always play with that same intensity on D.
Click to expand...

I have to thank Tony Allen for missing the first of two FTs down 2 points late....

Curry can only be stopped by Eddie Curry. he misses so many easy dunks and layups / put-backs...he also poor from the FT line...NY on defense is tough to watch without Q and Nate...
 
SportsNut said:
Sides:

Very good job with sides but not totals..
+17.51
Clippers -2 -110 {4u} +5.5 -107 {1u} Win +2.93
Celtics +4 -110 {5u} ML +157 {1u} Win +4.00
Grizz -4 -104 {2u} WIn +2.00
Wolves +4.5 -110 {4u} ML +166{1/2u}Win +4.83
Philly +11.5 -107 {3u} ML +720 {1/4u} Win +2.75
Bucks +6.5 +100 {1.5u} ML +{1/2u} Win +1.00

Totals :-4.80
Over 213 -110 Suns {2u} Loss -2.20
Under 213.5 -110 memphis {4u} somewhat concerned about the move Loss -4.40
Over 185.5 -113 Houston {4u} Win +4.00
Over 192.5 -110 Philly {2u} -2.20

1st Quarter +0.43
Suns -2 -110 {2units} +2.00
Bucks ML +152 {1u}-1.00 +2 +104 {1u}+1.04
LAC Under 46.5 -115 {3u}-3.45
Boston ML +117 {1u}+1.17
Memphis -1.5 -105 {2u}-2.10
Minny +117 {1u}+1.17
Philly +3.5 +110 {1u} +1.10
NYK +2 -108 {1.5u} +1.50 ML +154 {1u} -1.00 (3/of 8 FTs)


1st Half +2.64
-3.5 -109 Suns {unit}+1.00
Bos +2 -111 (1u}+1.00
Minny +2 -102 {1u}+1.00
Memphis -2-110 {2u}-2.20
NYK +3.5 -108 {1u} +1.00ML +168 {1/2u} +0.84<!-- / message -->

Props : (0-2 -3.04)
Gomes Over 11 -102 {2units}
Lebron Und 28 +100 {unit}

Team Totals {2units} -4.54
Und 104.5 -108 GS -2.16
Over 98 -112 Houston +2.00
Over 90 -113 Philly -2.26<!-- / message -->
Over 110 -106 Suns -2.12
Click to expand...

2nd H (-0.25)
NYK +5 -110 {1.5u} ML +242 {1/2u} Wins +2.71
Over 93 -113 )2u} -2.26
Under 93.5 -110 Boston {2u}-2.20
LAC -0.5 -111 {1u} +1.00
Under 90 +103 Miami{1u}-1.00
Spurs -5 -121 {1u} hedge +1.00
Memphis ML -160 {2.5u} +2.50
Under 108.5 +100 {2u} -2.00

CBB ( 2-0 +9.30 posted!!)
Over 155 +110 Zaga {3units} Win +3.30
Over 73 1st Half -110 {2units} Win +2.00
2ndh :
Michigan +2 -114 {4u} Win +4.00

Sides/Totals 13-8 +18.35u
1st Q: +1.72u
1st H: +1.57
2nd H -9.45
Team Totals : -4.54u


At the end of the day again feel like I have a wonderful feel for the card basically have every side correct. What I need to do is scale back on totals as I seem to be hit or miss with them and have little consistency. Even most of my 2nd H losses are hedges and/ or totals..


<!-- / message --><!-- edit note --><!-- / message -->
 
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