Wed MLB

[scdoggy]

Gonna lock this one in early. Will update the record tomorrow.

CHISOX +155 two units

A couple angles going here. Victor Martinez left yesterday's game early with tighness in the hammy. Not sure of his status for tomorrow, but if he's not catching Carmona, its a big deal.

Also Carmona seemed to dominate the league, but despite the Tribe going 2-1 against the Sox in his starts he did surrender an ERA of 6.23 in those starts. Meanwhile Vasquez had a 2-1 record vs. the Indians but his ERA of 3.06 was significantly lower.

White Sox have 16-12 record at CLE over the past three years and have produced backers 8.38 units profit in that span.

Just too much value on the Sox here. Carmona will be a public play I'm sure but Vasquez quietly put up solid numbers last year. I may get better value by waiting for tomorrow to see where this number goes, but I'll take my shot at 155. Lots of value at this number.

 

[E.T.G.]

interesting, were Carmona's games vs. the Sox at night or during the day because I remember him being very very tough during the day last yr

 

[scdoggy]

Carmona's day game numbers from 2007

10-2 with an ERA of 2.14

Very impressive, though I don't know how much stock I put in the day vs. night numbers. He certainly has very good numbers at Jacobs and during the day....

 

[scdoggy]

Had a good day on Tuesday going 4-2 and 5 units to the good.

Brings year to date up to 10-8 for +5.31 units

Oakland -127 two units

I'll back Harden again in this spot. Oakland was 12-8 at home vs. lefties last year and for you guys that like the daytime stats they went 7-3 in the sunshine vs. lefties last year. 3-1 vs. Boston at home last year and 7-3 the past three seasons.

Busy card today but there's not much I like on there. I may even scalp on the WhiteSox game now that the line has moved so much.

 

[scdoggy]

Baltimore +100 two units: UNDER 9.5 -115 two units

Garza has good numbers vs. the O's but at even money you've gotta take a shot with Cabrera. A 2-1 record in six starts this spring with a 3.22 ERA. Not too shabby. He is going to walk his share of batters, but looking back at Cabrera's career April has been the time to bet him. O's bullpen looked good giving up nothing in a little oer 3 innings. I'll take the home team tonight to win a close one.

Davidson is behind the dish, so not much help as he's been pretty neutral based on my info.

 

[scdoggy]

Two more and I'm done

Brewers +1.5 -150 two units
Brewers/Cubs UNDER 9.5 -115 two units

Suppan has a lot of experience vs. the Cubs and seems to turn in good performances against the Northsiders. Brewers record in day games vs. lefties is 2-9, and the run support has been the biggest problem.

WIth Chicago's issues in the Pen, I like MIL to keep this close, and I'm probably nuts for not playing the ML. WInd blowing slightly out to left will help the Brew Crew as well. You know what - I just convinced myslef.

MIL +146 one unit

 

[CollegeKingRex]

great shit bro, and a great number on the ChiSox...

GL today and tonight...

 

[scdoggy]

Thanks Rex. I will probably scalp the White Sox game with the -140 on Cleveland now and take my 7-8 cents. I'm a sucker for free cash, though I know many will lecture me against it.

 

[Blue_Chip]

take the free cash

gl doggy

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Doggy: Depends on how much you are betting, obviously.

If you are betting $100 grocery dollars, then it's hardly worth getting on the side you didn't like originally just to lock in enough money to buy a couple of Happy Meals.

Obviously, the more you invested on the dog originally, the better it might be to buy back at least a little bit of your bet on the fave...

GL...

 

[scdoggy]

Yeah, its a little more than grocery $$, the profit would cover a non-weekend night at a local watering hole. Which may be just what the doctor ordered for Monsenior Doggy. Fuck it. I'll let it ride. I liked it last night, I should like it today. Let it ride Trotter....

 

[scdoggy]

From a card I didn't like too much, to a card I've suddenly found some value in (or maybe I've got too much time on my hands today)...

PIT +117 two units - Pirates have been playing inspired ball at the end of ST, and early on. I'll ride these guys for a while and take a shot with Gorz.

PIT/ATL OVER 8.5 -120 two units
ATL hit Gorz well and has a tendancy to go over vs. lefties at home. PIT offense has been producing and I don't buy the hype on Jurrjens or whatever the fuck that jerkoff's name is.

NYY -136 two units

Everyone is ready to write Mussina off, but the guy can still dominate the Jays. ERA under 2.5 last year vs. these guys tells me there's value on the Yanks tonight at this price.

 

[scdoggy]

Get out the brooms:

LAD -1.5 +145 two units
LAD/SF OVEr 7 -105 two units

 

[scdoggy]

No action in LA as KUO gets the nod over Billingsley