WC Weekend

[Capaholic]

YTD 45-27-4 62.5% +36.52 u


Kansas City ML +115 (4/4.6)
Philadelphia -2.5 (2.2/2)
Philly/NO Under 54 (3.3/3)- 9-0 on totals this season
San Diego +7 (4.4/4)
San Diego ML +250 (2/5)


No real opinion on SF. Would lean SF but the weather concerns me. I have taken GB the last three times and lost all three. We shall see. If anyone wants some reasoning, etc. drop a line and I'll respond. Best of luck to all!

 

[STEED]

GL Cap

 

[VANGIO]

GL. love SD+7 & Under in Philly

 

[B.A.R.]

I like that card a lot as of now...

 

[Capaholic]

Thanks guys. Always cool to have some of the veterans on here drop in.

 

[deuce's wild]

nice season cap - revenge a big motivational point with KC tomorrow? GL

 

[Capaholic]

Yes and no. I (and I am in the minority) feel the first matchup was just to feel things out. Go back and watch the first drive of the game. KC did whatever they wanted and marched right down the field and scored. Then suddenly they couldn't move the ball at all? I think not. They wanted to see what could work before pulling the reins back a bit. Look at the first drive or two for KC's defense. Same story. Then for the rest of the game they dropped into soft coverage and Luck picked apart underneath for the entire game.

People will say KC still was playing for homefield. That's half true. The Broncos had Houston and Oakland. There was no way they were losing to either. The Chiefs played the Colts game smartly and the Chargers game even smarter.

When it comes down to it (and I use Football Outsiders as a main capping tool), the Chiefs are superior to the Colts in every conceivable category but one (Total offense and even that the Colts are only two spots ahead). DL, OL, ST, Defense, etc. the Chiefs have the advantage. And because of the offense KC plays, the distance between Luck and Smith is not as great as it should be. Luck 23 and 9, Smith 23 and 7 and Luck threw only 60 more passes this year. Running game? KC will keep Indy off the field in a way that Donald Brown and T-Rich cannot do.

Home field? Unless they start piping in noise like the good old days, I don't see a huge advantage here and the spread tells us that as well.

All in all, with my betting glasses on, I think this one will go our way. I mean, Colts are hot, Chiefs are cold, Colts just beat up the Chiefs, and it's a pick at Indy? C'mon man!

KC for the win

 

[deuce's wild]

Thanks for the analysis cap - good stuff

 

[Joe Public]

Love that under in Philly.

Not just because of the weather, which I think will be fine (just cold), but because I think you get a game in the low 20s. 23-20, something like that.

Good luck to you and your Chefs, Cap.

=)

 

[KowboyKarl]

Really like the card. Especially that total. GL Cap

 

[chopz33]

i can snag 54.5 right now...on the fence