NFL Week 11 Parlay (+269): Improved Commander Defense Suffocates Houston
Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Washington's Improved Defense
In the first phase of the regular season, Washington's defense was a mess.
Its defensive coordinator was on the hot seat as what used to be a superb defense was regressing in terms of all sorts of statistics.
Washington's first four opponents all scored 22 or more points against the Commander defense.
Detroit even scored 36.
But since the end of Week 4, no Commander opponent has scored more than 21 points in a game.
Star-laden Minnesota, for example, mustered 20 points against the Commanders. 20 remains its second-lowest scoring output of the season.
Washington's Defensive Statistics
The Commanders' defensive statistics remain skewed by their first four games of the season.
Wiping away the effects of those negative statistical outputs will never succeed completely.
Those early-season efforts remain most apparent now. After all, they formed 40 percent of the games that Washington has played all season.
Nonetheless, Washington's defensive improvement is statistically very legible.
The Commanders are one of seven teams allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game in their last three games -- this despite facing Philadelphia's highly-ranked rush attack and Minnesota with star running back Dalvin Cook.
Washington's pass defense is statistically above average but its secondary forms the weakness of its entire defensive unit.
Houston's Meagre Pass Attack
Is the weakness of Washington's secondary something that Houston can take advantage of?
Houston is one of the least-equipped teams to take advantage of a poor secondary.
The Texan pass attack ranks 24th in terms of yards per game.
Quarterback Davis Mills struggles to throw for more touchdowns than interceptions.
Houston's Wide Receiver Situation
Among their wide receivers, the Texans rely most heavily on Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins.
Both players have combined for 100 targets while a running back has the next-most targets on the team and no other wide receiver has more than 27 targets.
Cooks, however, remains banged up with a hip/wrist injury that is keeping him out of practice.
Nico Collins has been limited in practice with a groin injury.
Both players are listed as 'questionable' for Sunday's game.
Washington's Cornerbacks
While pass defense forms the weakness of Washington's defense, its cornerback group is well-equipped specifically to limit Houston's available wide receiver group.
Cornerback Kendall Fuller's outlook is particularly positive on Sunday.
He has been responsible primarily for Philadelphia's Devonta Smith, Viking Adam Thielen, and Colt Michael Pittman.
Not one of those receivers exceeded 24 yards against Fuller.
Fuller's positive performance against Pittman is especially significant because Pittman is a bigger-sized wide receiver who relies especially on his contested catch rate and thus, in these ways, resembles the best wide receivers whom Houston will deploy on Sunday.
Commander Pass Rush
Chase Young, the hyped-up early draft pick who made a splash as a rookie with 7.5 sacks, is expected to return on Sunday.
He will help a defensive line that relies especially on Montez Sweat, Daron Payne, and Jonathan Allen, all of whom have between four and six sacks so far.
They'll thrive against a Texan pass protection unit that ranks 19that preventing sacks.
Houston's Rush Attack Outlook
It's no coincidence that Houston has averaged 11.5 points against the two strongest run defenses it has faced so far, Tennessee's and Jacksonville's.
Running back Dameon Pierce struggles behind his offensive line to be efficient against stronger run defenses, so Washington's is sure to limit him.
Commander Rush Attack
Washington is a run-heavy team with its game manager quarterback handing the ball off to either starting-caliber running back, Brian Robinson Jr. or Antonio Gibson.
The Commanders face just the right defense, one that has been uniquely porous against the run all season.
To be exact, as measured by opposing rush yards per game, Houston's run defense ranks last-place by 19.9 yards.
Parlay Verdict
Washington will control the clock by running the ball down Houston's throat.
Offensively, the Texans will struggle against Washington's continually well-rested defense which is vastly improved and well-equipped to stop them from doing what they like to do.
For the above reasons, expect a lower-scoring game in which the Commanders cover the short number.
Best Bet: Parlay Commanders -3 at -110 & Under 41 at -107 at +269 odds with BetOnline
Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Washington's Improved Defense
In the first phase of the regular season, Washington's defense was a mess.
Its defensive coordinator was on the hot seat as what used to be a superb defense was regressing in terms of all sorts of statistics.
Washington's first four opponents all scored 22 or more points against the Commander defense.
Detroit even scored 36.
But since the end of Week 4, no Commander opponent has scored more than 21 points in a game.
Star-laden Minnesota, for example, mustered 20 points against the Commanders. 20 remains its second-lowest scoring output of the season.
Washington's Defensive Statistics
The Commanders' defensive statistics remain skewed by their first four games of the season.
Wiping away the effects of those negative statistical outputs will never succeed completely.
Those early-season efforts remain most apparent now. After all, they formed 40 percent of the games that Washington has played all season.
Nonetheless, Washington's defensive improvement is statistically very legible.
The Commanders are one of seven teams allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game in their last three games -- this despite facing Philadelphia's highly-ranked rush attack and Minnesota with star running back Dalvin Cook.
Washington's pass defense is statistically above average but its secondary forms the weakness of its entire defensive unit.
Houston's Meagre Pass Attack
Is the weakness of Washington's secondary something that Houston can take advantage of?
Houston is one of the least-equipped teams to take advantage of a poor secondary.
The Texan pass attack ranks 24th in terms of yards per game.
Quarterback Davis Mills struggles to throw for more touchdowns than interceptions.
Houston's Wide Receiver Situation
Among their wide receivers, the Texans rely most heavily on Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins.
Both players have combined for 100 targets while a running back has the next-most targets on the team and no other wide receiver has more than 27 targets.
Cooks, however, remains banged up with a hip/wrist injury that is keeping him out of practice.
Nico Collins has been limited in practice with a groin injury.
Both players are listed as 'questionable' for Sunday's game.
Washington's Cornerbacks
While pass defense forms the weakness of Washington's defense, its cornerback group is well-equipped specifically to limit Houston's available wide receiver group.
Cornerback Kendall Fuller's outlook is particularly positive on Sunday.
He has been responsible primarily for Philadelphia's Devonta Smith, Viking Adam Thielen, and Colt Michael Pittman.
Not one of those receivers exceeded 24 yards against Fuller.
Fuller's positive performance against Pittman is especially significant because Pittman is a bigger-sized wide receiver who relies especially on his contested catch rate and thus, in these ways, resembles the best wide receivers whom Houston will deploy on Sunday.
Commander Pass Rush
Chase Young, the hyped-up early draft pick who made a splash as a rookie with 7.5 sacks, is expected to return on Sunday.
He will help a defensive line that relies especially on Montez Sweat, Daron Payne, and Jonathan Allen, all of whom have between four and six sacks so far.
They'll thrive against a Texan pass protection unit that ranks 19that preventing sacks.
Houston's Rush Attack Outlook
It's no coincidence that Houston has averaged 11.5 points against the two strongest run defenses it has faced so far, Tennessee's and Jacksonville's.
Running back Dameon Pierce struggles behind his offensive line to be efficient against stronger run defenses, so Washington's is sure to limit him.
Commander Rush Attack
Washington is a run-heavy team with its game manager quarterback handing the ball off to either starting-caliber running back, Brian Robinson Jr. or Antonio Gibson.
The Commanders face just the right defense, one that has been uniquely porous against the run all season.
To be exact, as measured by opposing rush yards per game, Houston's run defense ranks last-place by 19.9 yards.
Parlay Verdict
Washington will control the clock by running the ball down Houston's throat.
Offensively, the Texans will struggle against Washington's continually well-rested defense which is vastly improved and well-equipped to stop them from doing what they like to do.
For the above reasons, expect a lower-scoring game in which the Commanders cover the short number.
Best Bet: Parlay Commanders -3 at -110 & Under 41 at -107 at +269 odds with BetOnline
