Washington vs Colorado Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

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Final article for the week. Finished up research and feel like this is the best way to approach this game. I don't believe I hear much of totals on this game being discussed.
Would obviously love to add (even) more detail. Actually supposed to limit myself to 600 words. But it seems like 800 is the tolerable medium between 600 and 1000. Gladly still trying to figure out a way to say so much in 600, though.
BOL

Expect a Physical Slugfest Between Rivals Washington and Colorado

#7 Washington (3-0) opens up Pac-12 play at Colorado (3-0). The Buffaloes will look to avenge their 41-10 loss in last season's Pac-12 Championship against the Huskies. The Huskies opened as 10 point favorites, but the spread has reached as high as 12.5. The game total opened at 53 and has dropped to 50.

The Huskies' offense has been prolific this season--but against lesser opponents. Quarterback Jake Browning does not have an elite arm, but prides himself on his accuracy and touch. He places the ball where his receivers want it and, in order to do so, is effectively mobile in the pocket in order to create more propitious throwing angles.

Washington's offensive line returns four starters who are capable of providing the protection for Browning and the elite duo in the backfield of Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman, who combined last season for over 2,000 yards rushing.

The Huskies' major loss on offense is wide receiver John Ross. They replace Ross with speedster Dante Pettis. Pettis will no longer benefit from the attention which opposing secondaries had devoted to Ross.

The Huskies have been absolutely pass-first this season. They likely want to allow Browning to develop chemistry with his wide receivers, who are unproven outside of Pettis, and prepare him to be more effective against higher-ranked defenses. Browning will need to improve from his 37% pass completion in last year's game against Colorado. His backfield inspires less concern from Washington's coaching staff, but may need to shake off some rust.

Steve Montez is Browning's counterpart for Colorado. Montez, unlike Browning, relies especially on his arm strength to make down-the-field throws and is also inclined to make big throws outside of the pocket. But like Browning, he has yet to impress against higher-ranked defenses. In order to succeed against Washington, he will need to limit his mistakes and allow his playmakers around him to win the game for Colorado.

Running back Phillip Lindsay lacks breakaway speed, but is still fast and agile. He doesn't look imposing, but is strong and physical. He is a reliable back, but hardly a game changer.

Montez has a talented receiving corps, including Lindsay, with his extremely reliable hands and effective route-running. Shay Fields, Devin Ross and Bryce Bobo are all capable of achieving big plays. Fields and Ross utilize their speed and elusiveness while Bobo is physical.

The Buffaloes' offensive line has undergone adjustments, is lacking cohesion, and playing poorly. Colorado's line will be a liability to its offense because, should Montez try to be aggressive, he will struggle to find the time to throw deep balls.

Washington's defensive line boasts two gigantic, but also athletic, mountains in the interior: Vita Vea and Greg Gaines. Between Lindsay's lack of size and his poor offensive line, Colorado will struggle to run against the pressure applied by Washington's defensive line. The Huskies' line is deep and includes Jaylen Johnson, who excels against elite competition whenever healthy.

Washington's linebacking corps has improved from last year. Azeem Victor makes up for his lack of size with his athleticism, range of pursuit, strong tackling, and leadership.

Washington's secondary balances a well of youthful upside with some starting experience. Byron Murphy can utilize his elite speed and ball skills to punish Montez for inconsistencies with his accuracy.

Colorado's secondary is in the same situation as that of Washington. Murphy's counterpart is Isaiah Oliver, who can run with any wide receiver down the field and utilizes his speed to take away much of the field for Browning. Browning and number one target Pettis will have trouble connecting against Oliver. Both secondaries have been regarded with unjustified skepticism as a result of offseason departures.

Colorado's defensive line has the pieces within its 3-4 defense to challenge Washington's underperforming offensive line. Led by the hugely strong but also respectably mobile Javier Edwards in the middle, and the explosive, pass rushing threat off the edge, Leo Jackson, Colorado's line is demonstrating the chemistry that Washington's blockers are not.

Colorado's linebacking corps boasts solid experience. They are run-stuffers who excel at taking the proper angle to the ball carrier. Rick Gamboa provides invaluable leadership and communication while Derek McCartney and Drew Lewis combine solid strength against opposing blockers and speed and athleticism. This unit underperformed against Washington last season, but should redeem itself this season.

The Verdict

In the past week, the Colorado players repeatedly had to watch film of their humiliating defeat against Washington last season. They have been open about their number one strategy to remain competitive against the Huskies: be physical. Their offense has yet to impress this season. Their defense will keep them in the game, while maintaining endurance against Washington's grinding, snail-paced offense. The Buffaloes will play their most motivated and energetic football in the first half.

NCAAF Pick: Colorado/Washington 1H 'Under' 26
 
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Decided to approach the total here. Felt more comfortable with this play than with the large spread because I have much more confidence in the defenses here. :boxing:
 
What is the belief about opponents playing at altitude these days. Seems like it used to be talked about all the time both in the nfl and college teams going to play at elevation, but I don't recall much talk of it these days. Probably bigger deal the quality of opponent on the other side of the field rather than how high the stadium is...just used to be more of a topic I think.

Interesting that both these teams have had very easy games the last 2 weeks without having to play with an urgency and focus this game will require.
 
I think Oregon's destruction of Wyoming put talks of altitude at rest. Seems to come up in every Broncos home game, though. It seemed to make a bigger difference in college basketball somehow
 
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Another good write up, Cavs. I'm interested in seeing what difference losing Leavitt makes to the Buffalo's defense. They were really tough on D last year. Every time Leavitt has moved the school he left loses something on D and the school he goes to instantly gets better.

Altitude definitely makes a difference. Last year Colorado was 6-0 at home, 3-2 on the road SU.

Boulder is at about 5,400 feet, just over a mile above sea level. Wyoming is at 7,200. Most studies estimate that at 5,400 feet the altitude makes about a 10% difference in endurance. Guys just can't go at top speed as long. In football guys get a chance to recover when the other unit is on the field, but over the course of 3 hours it still takes a toll.

Over the years the sportsbooks have learned to figure it into their lines.

We see it in action every summer at Tahoe on the beach volleyball courts. Talent will still win out, but teams from LA that could run us off the court at Santa Barbara or LA start to suck air about halfway through the game and they don't have the same precision and endurance they have at sea level. We still rarely beat them, but the games are a lot closer.
 
If you aren't used to it walking up a set of stairs will wear you at at even 4000 feet. Jfc altitude is a son of a bitch

Thing with football unlike other sports is there just isn't a ton of "action" time...it's really small in the grand reality unlike hoops where it's constantly ongoing. Time to recover, etc
 
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Which is why Pac-12 teams tend to lose that second leg of the Utah Colorado road trip in college basketball. See Oregon vs Colorado.

Tahoe, last year Colorado had to play Mich and USC on the road. So I think their home/road disparity was a matter of strength of schedule.

This year Oregon killed Wyoming in Laramie, which is even higher altitude than Boulder
 
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