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Huskies Feel the Heat vs Sun Devils
#5 Washington (6-0) plays at Arizona State (2-3) this Saturday at 10:45 PM ET. The Huskies opened as 18.5 point favorites, but that number has dropped to 17.5, despite public action on Washington.
All 6 of the teams demolished by Washington have passing attacks ranked outside the top 50, in terms of passing yards per game. Arizona State's passing attack, which ranks 26th, will test Washington's defense.
Quarterback Manny Wilkins had averaged over 300 yards per game with 8 touchdowns before last week's off day at Stanford, where he threw his first two interceptions on the season.
Wilkins is at his best at home, where he excelled against San Diego State's top-ranked pass defense and helped upset then-ranked Oregon. His passer rating this season is 139.2 on the road, compared to 163.5 at home, a trend that is consistent throughout his career.
Wilkins is a dual-threat quarterback whose quick feel enable him to maintain good pocket presence. He ably keeps his eyes down the field and can drive a vertical passing attack. Outside of the pocket, he is a strong runner in the open field.
N'Keal Harry is Wilkins' top target. Harry is tall and well-sized, yet also boasts impressive speed and route-running skills. He has extensive catching range and is strong as a runner after the catch or in jet sweep plays.
Jalen Harvey complements Harry, who will see the most attention from Washington's defense. Harvey is improving his ability to separate himself from second-level defenders and find space in the open field for Wilkins to develop his strength, the intermediate passing game. Harvey complements Harry's physicality with shifty elusiveness in open space and a vertical ability that expands his already decent size.
Protection for WIlkins is an issue, as the Sun Devils rank towards rock-bottom in terms of sacks allowed. Dating back to last season, the games in which Arizona State could not be competitive at home were those in which Wilkins was sacked incessantly.
The Huskies' defensive line feeds off the energy of its home crowd. On the road this season, they have produced 6 sacks in 3 games, which would place them outside the top 50 overall.
If protection does become an issue, the Devils' passing attack is prepared to expose the weakness of the Huskies' untested secondary. For example, Harry's route-running ability includes the use of fakes and other subtle movements in order to quickly create separation from the secondary. The quick pass to Harry, combined with his ability to run after the catch, can be effective against the Huskies' secondary.
The injury of Byron Murphy, who had led the Huskies in passes defensed, makes the Huskies' attempt to replace significant departures in the secondary that much harder. The Devils' passing game can expose an inexperienced and unproven Washington secondary.
Another crucial match-up will be Arizona State's push rush against Washington's offensive line.
Washington is ranked 30th in sacks allowed, but against anemic pass rushes. Arizona State, also in terms of pass rush, presents a new beast to a protection unit that has openly received the label "soft."
One of the Devils' leading pass rushers is JoJo Wicker, who achieved 2 sacks against a respectably ranked Texas Tech protection unit. Wicker complements his strength with quickness after the snap. He adeptly collapses the pocket, but also utilizes a variety of moves to work into the backfield. He boasts solid speed and athleticism for a defensive tackle and aggressively pursues the opposing ballcarrier
The Devils also boast a high-quality, veteran linebacking corps with which to contain Washington's rush attack. D.J. Calhoun and Christian Sam's speedy and physical presence can contain Washington's rush attack and make their offense more one-dimensional.
Arizona State's run defense statistics are abysmal because the best rush attacks shredded them--San Diego State and Stanford. Washington's poor run-blocking limits its rush attack. Myles Gaskin's one strong game this year came against a rebuilding Colorado 3-4 defense with a depleted defensive line and a linebacking corps that lacks size and physicality.
Arizona State's 4-3 defense effectively utilizes the abilities of its best defenders, whose physicality will be decisive in keeping Washington one-dimensional and susceptible to the Devils' pass rush. Arizona State's best pass defense will be its pass rush.
The Verdict
An overview of Washington's statistical achievements leads one to overrate their abilities because of the weak competition which they have faced, while a more battle-tested Arizona State can surprise many by winning defensively the battle against the Huskies' offensive line and offensively by exposing Washington's pass defense. The difficulty of playing in Tempe, Arizona is underrated by oddsmakers, as the Devils are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 at home. Also, oddsmakers constantly overrate the Huskies in this match-up, in which the Devils have covered 11 in a row.
NCAAF Pick: Arizona State +17.5
Huskies Feel the Heat vs Sun Devils
#5 Washington (6-0) plays at Arizona State (2-3) this Saturday at 10:45 PM ET. The Huskies opened as 18.5 point favorites, but that number has dropped to 17.5, despite public action on Washington.
All 6 of the teams demolished by Washington have passing attacks ranked outside the top 50, in terms of passing yards per game. Arizona State's passing attack, which ranks 26th, will test Washington's defense.
Quarterback Manny Wilkins had averaged over 300 yards per game with 8 touchdowns before last week's off day at Stanford, where he threw his first two interceptions on the season.
Wilkins is at his best at home, where he excelled against San Diego State's top-ranked pass defense and helped upset then-ranked Oregon. His passer rating this season is 139.2 on the road, compared to 163.5 at home, a trend that is consistent throughout his career.
Wilkins is a dual-threat quarterback whose quick feel enable him to maintain good pocket presence. He ably keeps his eyes down the field and can drive a vertical passing attack. Outside of the pocket, he is a strong runner in the open field.
N'Keal Harry is Wilkins' top target. Harry is tall and well-sized, yet also boasts impressive speed and route-running skills. He has extensive catching range and is strong as a runner after the catch or in jet sweep plays.
Jalen Harvey complements Harry, who will see the most attention from Washington's defense. Harvey is improving his ability to separate himself from second-level defenders and find space in the open field for Wilkins to develop his strength, the intermediate passing game. Harvey complements Harry's physicality with shifty elusiveness in open space and a vertical ability that expands his already decent size.
Protection for WIlkins is an issue, as the Sun Devils rank towards rock-bottom in terms of sacks allowed. Dating back to last season, the games in which Arizona State could not be competitive at home were those in which Wilkins was sacked incessantly.
The Huskies' defensive line feeds off the energy of its home crowd. On the road this season, they have produced 6 sacks in 3 games, which would place them outside the top 50 overall.
If protection does become an issue, the Devils' passing attack is prepared to expose the weakness of the Huskies' untested secondary. For example, Harry's route-running ability includes the use of fakes and other subtle movements in order to quickly create separation from the secondary. The quick pass to Harry, combined with his ability to run after the catch, can be effective against the Huskies' secondary.
The injury of Byron Murphy, who had led the Huskies in passes defensed, makes the Huskies' attempt to replace significant departures in the secondary that much harder. The Devils' passing game can expose an inexperienced and unproven Washington secondary.
Another crucial match-up will be Arizona State's push rush against Washington's offensive line.
Washington is ranked 30th in sacks allowed, but against anemic pass rushes. Arizona State, also in terms of pass rush, presents a new beast to a protection unit that has openly received the label "soft."
One of the Devils' leading pass rushers is JoJo Wicker, who achieved 2 sacks against a respectably ranked Texas Tech protection unit. Wicker complements his strength with quickness after the snap. He adeptly collapses the pocket, but also utilizes a variety of moves to work into the backfield. He boasts solid speed and athleticism for a defensive tackle and aggressively pursues the opposing ballcarrier
The Devils also boast a high-quality, veteran linebacking corps with which to contain Washington's rush attack. D.J. Calhoun and Christian Sam's speedy and physical presence can contain Washington's rush attack and make their offense more one-dimensional.
Arizona State's run defense statistics are abysmal because the best rush attacks shredded them--San Diego State and Stanford. Washington's poor run-blocking limits its rush attack. Myles Gaskin's one strong game this year came against a rebuilding Colorado 3-4 defense with a depleted defensive line and a linebacking corps that lacks size and physicality.
Arizona State's 4-3 defense effectively utilizes the abilities of its best defenders, whose physicality will be decisive in keeping Washington one-dimensional and susceptible to the Devils' pass rush. Arizona State's best pass defense will be its pass rush.
The Verdict
An overview of Washington's statistical achievements leads one to overrate their abilities because of the weak competition which they have faced, while a more battle-tested Arizona State can surprise many by winning defensively the battle against the Huskies' offensive line and offensively by exposing Washington's pass defense. The difficulty of playing in Tempe, Arizona is underrated by oddsmakers, as the Devils are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 at home. Also, oddsmakers constantly overrate the Huskies in this match-up, in which the Devils have covered 11 in a row.
NCAAF Pick: Arizona State +17.5
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