Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys - NFL - MNF

[Hakan's Picks]

I know these two teams very well, as I am a die-hard Cowboys fan living in the Washington DC area. Yes, this is a division game, and yes, these two usually play each other tight – but this year is a bit different. This year's Cowboys team is much better than in years past. They are proving to everyone that you can still win with an old-fashioned running game, despite the NFL becoming a passing league in recent years. They arguably have the best offensive line in the league. DeMarco Murray is averaging 79.1 yards per game before contact this season. That is just downright ridiculous. The running game allows them to control the clock, and open up the passing game. Romo, Murray, and Bryant are arguably the best QB-RB-WR trio in the game. The Cowboys defense has been playing much better than everyone expected, anchored by the play of Rolando McClain. LB Bruce Carter is expected to return for this game. There's not much to say about the Redskins, really. They will be starting their third-string QB Colt McCoy. The Skins defense is actually decent against the run, but no team has been able to slow down the Cowboys running game, including Seattle – so I don't see that changing tonight. The Skins horrible secondary doesn't stand a chance against the Cowboys passing game. Although I'm confident that the Cowboys should cover the -9.5 spread, I went ahead and bought a few extra points to bring it down to a TD, just as extra insurance. Pick: Cowboys -7 at -155 (5Dimes).


Futbol/Soccer Picks: 22-1-19
NFL Picks: 10-10

 

[The Capping Genius]

Everything you've said is true. One major question remains. Is RG3 playing or not? Im holding off my play until I'm sure about that factor.

Youve made a brilliant descision to buy the line to 7. Im a big advocate in owning a better line , instead of what seems less costly to most who would then lose, because they got -110 juice to lose a game because the line was 9 or 10. .

ML -510 is not out of the question either. IMO if Dallas can't win su, then the bet was lost because of the Cowboys self destructing anyway.


GL

 

[Hakan's Picks]

Everything you've said is true. One major question remains. Is RG3 playing or not? Im holding off my play until I'm sure about that factor.

Youve made a brilliant descision to buy the line to 7. Im a big advocate in owning a better line , instead of what seems less costly to most who would then lose, because they got -110 juice to lose a game because the line was 9 or 10. .

ML -510 is not out of the question either. IMO if Dallas can't win su, then the bet was lost because of the Cowboys self destructing anyway.


GL

Amen brother! I'm getting ripped apart on Covers.com for buying the extra points. Like you, I don't see much difference between -110 and -155 juice, but it could be the difference from winning or losing.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Nice pick and good writeup.

Think you have the right capping angles into this game.

- Dallas is the Alabama of the nfl. Using a nasty run game with Murray and play action passes.

- Lesser known qbs like Mckoy usually don't fare well in prinetime on the road.

-As you eloquently WROTE the skins are lacking depth because of the rg3 trade.

- buying points- a great idea /
My brother said just pick the winner bottom line!

Good luck

 

[emg2525]

Amen brother! I'm getting ripped apart on Covers.com for buying the extra points. Like you, I don't see much difference between -110 and -155 juice, but it could be the difference from winning or losing.

I'm by no means suggesting not buying points at times...in fact I often do. However, there is a GIANT difference between -110 and -155.

Basically, you would have to win one out of every 2.5 bets that you buy points on to justify such a bet (and when I say win, I mean win within the range you bought points - not a win that you would've had regardless). That simply doesn't happen - not even close...which makes it a bad investment.

Piece of mind? Yes.

Wise investment? Not at all.

 

[Hakan's Picks]

I think it's okay to buy points from time to time. Not something I regularly do. Agree with you 100% though.

Line opened at -7 Cowboys BTW.

 

[BJPLAYER]

I think it's okay to buy points from time to time. Not something I regularly do. Agree with you 100% though.

Line opened at -7 Cowboys BTW.

I buy 3.5 to 3 but really not much else....does not seem like it has paid me over time to buy points as the actual 1/2 to 2 points does not seem to come into play....I actually check three different options and go for the best juice typically...If I don't like a line or juice I will typically ML parlay like last night I ML parlayed SF in the bases and NO in foots....Have to bring them both in but pays when and you only lose the amount wagered....Not sure if it makes sense or not...just what I do....fwiw

 

[austinhous]

Wise investment? Not at all.

NFL games land on 7 about 10.4% of the time. NFL games land on 10 about 6.4% of the time. Since 2009, teams lined -10 are 30-7 SU and 18-18-1 (.500) ATS. If you would have bought those games to -7 you would have increased your record to 21-13-3 (.618). The -155 carries an implied probability of .601, so technically, this is a wise investment based on ATS numbers since 2009.

 

[cxbbum]

been buying pts in foots and hoops on a regular basis for the last few years and used to hear a bunch of shit for it....mainly from the narrow minded who believe in just one way to make some coin....nothing wrong with buying pts in my book at all, and my answer to the popular question "why?" has always been the same....because I can f'kin' afford to....and my posted plays have always backed that up....gl tonight my brah....\m/

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck tonight

 

[EAGLES2828]

gl bro. i agree 100%

 

[tee*dub]

Never make money long term buying that amount of square points in Sunday league. But good luck tonight sir. Hope you hit it.

 

[emkee]

^This.

 

[cxbbum]

Never make money long term buying that amount of square points in Sunday league. But good luck tonight sir. Hope you hit it.

I beg to differ as I have done it....and it's Documented....gl....\m/

 

[Lareux]

I beg to differ as I have done it....and it's Documented....gl....\m/

Yes, you've been profitable in the NFL, and you often buy 2 pts in games...BUT, you play a ton of other things like props, 1hs, 2hs, lots of teasers, etc....so while you are profitable OVERALL in the NFL, are you really profitable only in those games in which you buy 2 or more points? Simple math says you can't win buying that many points in the long run. No one is saying you can't win overall in the NFL if you happen to buy points in a tiny fraction of the games you bet, what they are saying is you won't be profitable buying 2 or more points in a game over the long run in those games in which you buy the points....they are 2 completely different things.

 

[BJPLAYER]

NFL games land on 7 about 10.4% of the time. NFL games land on 10 about 6.4% of the time. Since 2009, teams lined -10 are 30-7 SU and 18-18-1 (.500) ATS. If you would have bought those games to -7 you would have increased your record to 21-13-3 (.618). The -155 carries an implied probability of .601, so technically, this is a wise investment based on ATS numbers since 2009.

technically you are correct that it is wise if he were to play all 37 games but when you are picking and choosing which games to play does it become more of a gamble? just curious...love your analysis by way....always read your stuff....i hardly ever do research into past numbers to figure out if my assumptions are correct or not but as time has gone by I seem to have migrated to juice management as a capping tool that I employ almost all the time....but then every once in a while I will irrationally purchase points....as my good buddy says...."dude you got issues"

 

[D.D.]

@ Lareux - This is why you only play select games and too many games or props. Of course buying points for a whole slew of tickets will be immensely unprofitable. Just pick and selectively choose the ones you think merits it and keep it limited.

 

[Lareux]

@ Lareux - This is why you only play select games and too many games or props. Of course buying points for a whole slew of tickets will be immensely unprofitable. Just pick and selectively choose the ones you think merits it and keep it limited.

Sure, it's possible to be selective and win buying points, never said otherwise. The point Tee made was that doing that regularly (buying that many points) is not profitable long term (which it's not, based on simple math and what one can expect to hit as a winning % LONG TERM). cxb then said it is possible to be profitable buying that many points....but he wins overall, not just in those games, so I asked if he knew what his record/figure was just in those games.

When you say "too many games or props" though...that's not necessarily right. cxb has shown that you can bet a lot of games, a lot of props, a lot of teasers and be profitable....that's what he does. He isn't doing that ONLY by buying points though...that was the point.

 

[cxbbum]

yeah I gotcha Lareux, forgive me T Dub for being a bit foggy, been workin' the kix for the last 18 hours or so, but I understand now what you're sayin'....few years ago I tracked just those full game plays I'd buy pts on and for the most part it was unnecessary, but it helped me more than hurt me so I continued doing it....with so much other shit going on constantly, I've since gotten lazy about tracking just those plays and it's become second nature to buy pts all the time....What Were Once Vices Are Now Habits, as the Doobie Brahs put it, lol

sorry for the thread hijack Hakan....gl fellas....\m/

 

[twinkie13]

any thread with cxbum and tee dub together is a good one in my book

GL guys

 

[Hakan's Picks]

This ended up being a great thread. Appreciate everyone's input. It's always good to hear what other fellow gamblers and cappers think.

The takeaway is, it's ok to buy points from time to time - just be selective and pick the spots that merit it. Unfortunately, it didn't work out this time.

Good luck everyone! Talk to you later.

 

[Tito]

NFL games land on 7 about 10.4% of the time. NFL games land on 10 about 6.4% of the time. Since 2009, teams lined -10 are 30-7 SU and 18-18-1 (.500) ATS. If you would have bought those games to -7 you would have increased your record to 21-13-3 (.618). The -155 carries an implied probability of .601, so technically, this is a wise investment based on ATS numbers since 2009.

thats really interesting stat, but wouldn't those 13 losses at @-155 cut into your winnings at that %? So better win %, but how much more $$ would you be up? I don't pretend to know much about this, but that was the first thing I thought of after reading that

 

[Lareux]

thats really interesting stat, but wouldn't those 13 losses at @-155 cut into your winnings at that %? So better win %, but how much more $$ would you be up? I don't pretend to know much about this, but that was the first thing I thought of after reading that

Yes it would have.

Essentially, you would have have been +$85 if you bet $100 on each of those 37 games buying points, as opposed to -$-180 if you didn't buy the points on the 37 games. So, while looking at the percentages, one may say "this is a wise investment" is certainly isn't as wise as you'd think simply looking at the %s. Of course you're going to win a bigger % of the games as you're paying much higher juice....that's the point of juice and how it works out with the %s you can expect to win a game.