Our Top NFL Week 15 Parlay: Best Bets for Sunday's Games
Washington Football Team vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia
Eagles Are Run-First
Philadelphia's offense is by far the NFL's most run-oriented one. The Eagles own the highest run-play percentage by a 2.99-percent margin over second place.
Their quarterback, Jalen Hurts, missed his team's game on December 5 and needed rest during his team's bye week in order to nurse his injured ankle. He is expected to start Sunday's game.
Hurts often has issues with passing accuracy. He's failed to complete 55 percent of his passes in each of his last two games and ranks 33rd in true completion percentage.
However, he at least always likes to be a threat as a runner. His smoothness changing directions and his agility might be his best assets as a quarterback when he's playing sufficiently weak opponents.
A loaded backfield is in place to support him. There aren't any superstars, but there are numerous starter-caliber guys, such as Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, and other running backs who have received and made something respectable out of a higher volume of opportunities.
Washington's Improved Defense
Dallas' 27-point output is a bit misleading because Dallas returned a fumble for a touchdown and had a 15-yard drive result in a field goal.
Before that game, the Football Team had allowed 15 to Las Vegas and Seattle, 21 to Carolina, and 19 to offensively elite Tampa Bay.
Washington's improved defense is evident in its cornerback play, among other places, and it is most evident in its run defense.
Given this improvement, the Football Team ranks fifth in limiting the opponent's rushing yards per play.
This strength against the run makes Washington's defense look more like the elite unit that it was last year, the same one that traveled to Philadelphia to limit Hurts to 72 yards passing and 34 yards rushing.
Washington Offense vs. Philadelphia Defense
Both teams have meaningful players whose injuries are worth monitoring: these players include some Eagle running backs and Washington defenders.
But I think Football Team wide receiver Terry McLaurin is the most important player.
He is his team's leader, by far, in terms of receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns.
His success correlates with that of his entire offense. Whereas he exceeded 100 receiving yards in Washington's two 30+-point outputs, he failed to accrue more than 51 receiving yards in five of the seven games in which Football Team failed to score more than 20points.
McLaurin's absence -- he is currently in the concussion protocol -- would mean that Washington has too little star-power to reliably navigate the Eagle defense. If he could play, Washington would absolutely be worth backing as a live dog.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
What Could Change?
As part of Miami's ongoing win streak, the Dolphins beat the Jets 24-17 in Week 11.
For this game, a lot changes in the Dolphins' favor. For starters, they are coming off a bye week and are playing this rematch at home.
Furthermore, Zach Wilson is starting at quarterback instead of the veteran Joe Flacco.
Wilson is an interception machine who is inefficient both under pressure and in a clean pocket.
As measured by completion percentage, his best asset by far is his deep passing.
However, his favorite deep target, Elijah Moore, is on IR.
When the Jets managed 17 points, Moore was a rare bright spot in the offense as he amassed 141 receiving yards including a 62-yard reception.
Without Moore and with Wilson, the Jets will struggle to reach 10 points.
Defensively, the Jets are still historically bad. They've allowed 30+ points in each of their last two games -- at home to New Orleans and Philadelphia -- and now rank last by 2.8 points in limiting the opponent's scoring.
An ever-improving Tua Tagovailoa, who has accomplished a passer rating over 100 in four straight games now, will find plenty to pick a part in a young secondary laden with late-round draft selections.
The Verdict
Washington's defense matches up well with the run-heavy Eagle offense whose quarterback will try to do what he failed to do last year and what Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, and others are failing to do: successfully navigate an ascendant Washington defense.
The Jet offense will struggle against a Dolphin defense that has allowed 55 points in the past five games, relying among other things on its elite and very expensive secondary, which the interception-prone and inefficient Wilson will struggle to survive.
With Tua and enough healthy running backs, Miami will easily outpace New York's historically bad defense.
For the above reasons, play Washington ATS and Miami ATS if McLaurin is good to go or the Washington/Philadelphia "under" and Miami ATS if McLaurin is ruled 'out.'
Best Bet: Parlay Football Team/Eagles Under 44 at -110 & Dolphins -8.5 at -105 at +273 odds with BetOnline
Washington Football Team vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia
Eagles Are Run-First
Philadelphia's offense is by far the NFL's most run-oriented one. The Eagles own the highest run-play percentage by a 2.99-percent margin over second place.
Their quarterback, Jalen Hurts, missed his team's game on December 5 and needed rest during his team's bye week in order to nurse his injured ankle. He is expected to start Sunday's game.
Hurts often has issues with passing accuracy. He's failed to complete 55 percent of his passes in each of his last two games and ranks 33rd in true completion percentage.
However, he at least always likes to be a threat as a runner. His smoothness changing directions and his agility might be his best assets as a quarterback when he's playing sufficiently weak opponents.
A loaded backfield is in place to support him. There aren't any superstars, but there are numerous starter-caliber guys, such as Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, and other running backs who have received and made something respectable out of a higher volume of opportunities.
Washington's Improved Defense
Dallas' 27-point output is a bit misleading because Dallas returned a fumble for a touchdown and had a 15-yard drive result in a field goal.
Before that game, the Football Team had allowed 15 to Las Vegas and Seattle, 21 to Carolina, and 19 to offensively elite Tampa Bay.
Washington's improved defense is evident in its cornerback play, among other places, and it is most evident in its run defense.
Given this improvement, the Football Team ranks fifth in limiting the opponent's rushing yards per play.
This strength against the run makes Washington's defense look more like the elite unit that it was last year, the same one that traveled to Philadelphia to limit Hurts to 72 yards passing and 34 yards rushing.
Washington Offense vs. Philadelphia Defense
Both teams have meaningful players whose injuries are worth monitoring: these players include some Eagle running backs and Washington defenders.
But I think Football Team wide receiver Terry McLaurin is the most important player.
He is his team's leader, by far, in terms of receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns.
His success correlates with that of his entire offense. Whereas he exceeded 100 receiving yards in Washington's two 30+-point outputs, he failed to accrue more than 51 receiving yards in five of the seven games in which Football Team failed to score more than 20points.
McLaurin's absence -- he is currently in the concussion protocol -- would mean that Washington has too little star-power to reliably navigate the Eagle defense. If he could play, Washington would absolutely be worth backing as a live dog.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
What Could Change?
As part of Miami's ongoing win streak, the Dolphins beat the Jets 24-17 in Week 11.
For this game, a lot changes in the Dolphins' favor. For starters, they are coming off a bye week and are playing this rematch at home.
Furthermore, Zach Wilson is starting at quarterback instead of the veteran Joe Flacco.
Wilson is an interception machine who is inefficient both under pressure and in a clean pocket.
As measured by completion percentage, his best asset by far is his deep passing.
However, his favorite deep target, Elijah Moore, is on IR.
When the Jets managed 17 points, Moore was a rare bright spot in the offense as he amassed 141 receiving yards including a 62-yard reception.
Without Moore and with Wilson, the Jets will struggle to reach 10 points.
Defensively, the Jets are still historically bad. They've allowed 30+ points in each of their last two games -- at home to New Orleans and Philadelphia -- and now rank last by 2.8 points in limiting the opponent's scoring.
An ever-improving Tua Tagovailoa, who has accomplished a passer rating over 100 in four straight games now, will find plenty to pick a part in a young secondary laden with late-round draft selections.
The Verdict
Washington's defense matches up well with the run-heavy Eagle offense whose quarterback will try to do what he failed to do last year and what Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, and others are failing to do: successfully navigate an ascendant Washington defense.
The Jet offense will struggle against a Dolphin defense that has allowed 55 points in the past five games, relying among other things on its elite and very expensive secondary, which the interception-prone and inefficient Wilson will struggle to survive.
With Tua and enough healthy running backs, Miami will easily outpace New York's historically bad defense.
For the above reasons, play Washington ATS and Miami ATS if McLaurin is good to go or the Washington/Philadelphia "under" and Miami ATS if McLaurin is ruled 'out.'
Best Bet: Parlay Football Team/Eagles Under 44 at -110 & Dolphins -8.5 at -105 at +273 odds with BetOnline
