BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
The Washington Crapitals are having quite some season (that will no doubt end in playoff heart break, probably at the hands of the Rangers as usual), and that includes having now managed a feat that no other team can boast of since the rule changes that followed the 04-05 season lockout:
12 straight Caps games have been decided by 1-goal margins. Only 3 other teams (Ott-11, Van-10 & Nas-10) had previously managed such streaks that were double-digits in length. Here's a breakdown of all the completed 1-goal margin streaks of at least 4 games in length since the start nof the 05-06 season:
- 96.84% of the streaks to have reached at least 4 games in length ended before they doubled in size: The Caps streak has obv. tripled in size since reaching 4 games.
- 98.96% of the streaks to have reached at least 5 games in length ended before they doubled in size.
- 99.84% of the streaks to have reached at least 4 games in length ended before they reached 11 games.
I think it's safe to say that the Caps are "due" a game to be decided by a 2+ goal margin.
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Now, how to apply the expectation of an imminent multi-goal result to tonight's WAS@SJ fixture?
Looking closely at the Caps recent road games, one thing stands out clearly: the Caps are struggling to beat decent teams. Here are their regulation scores (Caps score first, wins bolded) aligned with the win% of their opponent (as currently stands):
4-1 / .560 / Jan. 7th
3-3 / .573 / Jan. 9th
1-4 / .400 / Jan. 16th
6-3 / .411 / Jan. 19th
2-2 / .470 / Feb. 6th
5-3 / .500 / Feb. 9th
4-3 / .456 / Feb. 11th
3-4 / .594 / Feb. 13th
2-2 / .560 / Feb. 18th
2-3 / .594 / Feb. 28th
1-1 / .557 / Mar. 5th
1-1 / .552 / Mar. 7th
3-3 / .606 / Mar. 9th
Immediately noticeable is the fact that:
(1) the Caps have gone 2+ months since their last regulation road win against a team with a record better than .500 - the reason for my limiting matters to reg. scores being obviously that a 2-goal margin can only come from a game decided in regulation (SJ's win% is .552), and...
(2) the Caps haven't won a single road game in regulation in over a month. In their last 6 road games during this time they've been scored on first 5 times, and trailed in every game. In their last 3 games, they've trailed after the 1st period in every game, and needed to score last to force OT.
For a team with such a dominant record, why the road struggles? My guess is they know they've got things wrapped up re playoff HIA (they'd pretty much have to lose 90% of their remaining games while whoever overtook them would have to win 90% in turn, to fail to manage the feat: basically a nigh on impossible occurrence) and I'd expect from here they'll save their best efforts for home games. Right now they're at the end of a hard trip and I fail to see why the Sharks would inspire in them a monumental mental/physical effort (while the Caps lost 5-0 @home to SJ in their only prev. meeting this season, the revenge angle doesn't strike me as significant here, given it's a non-Conf. opponent and that game was 6 months ago).
As for the Sharks, they're in a tight tussle with the Kings & Ducks to take the Pacific, and they mailed their game against the Devils last time up it looks like, which sets things up for a big effort from them here. I'll be looking to fade the Caps on the road in certain spots down the rest of the reg. season just generally, but that intention to fade is married here with the expectation of a 2+ goal result being imminent.
San Jose -1.5 (+230) for small.
12 straight Caps games have been decided by 1-goal margins. Only 3 other teams (Ott-11, Van-10 & Nas-10) had previously managed such streaks that were double-digits in length. Here's a breakdown of all the completed 1-goal margin streaks of at least 4 games in length since the start nof the 05-06 season:
1-goal game streaks
Streak length ... No. of streaks
4 games ........... 355
5 games ........... 156
6 games ............ 73
7 games ............ 40
8 games ............ 13
9 games ............ 4
10 games .......... 2
11 games .......... 1
Some percentages to put the Caps feat in context...Streak length ... No. of streaks
4 games ........... 355
5 games ........... 156
6 games ............ 73
7 games ............ 40
8 games ............ 13
9 games ............ 4
10 games .......... 2
11 games .......... 1
- 96.84% of the streaks to have reached at least 4 games in length ended before they doubled in size: The Caps streak has obv. tripled in size since reaching 4 games.
- 98.96% of the streaks to have reached at least 5 games in length ended before they doubled in size.
- 99.84% of the streaks to have reached at least 4 games in length ended before they reached 11 games.
I think it's safe to say that the Caps are "due" a game to be decided by a 2+ goal margin.
------
Now, how to apply the expectation of an imminent multi-goal result to tonight's WAS@SJ fixture?
Looking closely at the Caps recent road games, one thing stands out clearly: the Caps are struggling to beat decent teams. Here are their regulation scores (Caps score first, wins bolded) aligned with the win% of their opponent (as currently stands):
4-1 / .560 / Jan. 7th
3-3 / .573 / Jan. 9th
1-4 / .400 / Jan. 16th
6-3 / .411 / Jan. 19th
2-2 / .470 / Feb. 6th
5-3 / .500 / Feb. 9th
4-3 / .456 / Feb. 11th
3-4 / .594 / Feb. 13th
2-2 / .560 / Feb. 18th
2-3 / .594 / Feb. 28th
1-1 / .557 / Mar. 5th
1-1 / .552 / Mar. 7th
3-3 / .606 / Mar. 9th
Immediately noticeable is the fact that:
(1) the Caps have gone 2+ months since their last regulation road win against a team with a record better than .500 - the reason for my limiting matters to reg. scores being obviously that a 2-goal margin can only come from a game decided in regulation (SJ's win% is .552), and...
(2) the Caps haven't won a single road game in regulation in over a month. In their last 6 road games during this time they've been scored on first 5 times, and trailed in every game. In their last 3 games, they've trailed after the 1st period in every game, and needed to score last to force OT.
For a team with such a dominant record, why the road struggles? My guess is they know they've got things wrapped up re playoff HIA (they'd pretty much have to lose 90% of their remaining games while whoever overtook them would have to win 90% in turn, to fail to manage the feat: basically a nigh on impossible occurrence) and I'd expect from here they'll save their best efforts for home games. Right now they're at the end of a hard trip and I fail to see why the Sharks would inspire in them a monumental mental/physical effort (while the Caps lost 5-0 @home to SJ in their only prev. meeting this season, the revenge angle doesn't strike me as significant here, given it's a non-Conf. opponent and that game was 6 months ago).
As for the Sharks, they're in a tight tussle with the Kings & Ducks to take the Pacific, and they mailed their game against the Devils last time up it looks like, which sets things up for a big effort from them here. I'll be looking to fade the Caps on the road in certain spots down the rest of the reg. season just generally, but that intention to fade is married here with the expectation of a 2+ goal result being imminent.
San Jose -1.5 (+230) for small.
