Cardinals And Pirates Bring Pride To NL Central Today
Washington (69-57) at Pittsburgh (52-74)
When: 7:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Pirates First-Five RL
For all of Max Scherzer's (9-5, 2.41 ERA) success, he's easily Washington's least profitable pitcher, yielding -10.80 units. Scherzer is also in a tough spot today as he will make his first start since July 25th. Back issues had sent him on the injury list right after shoulder issues had done the same. Today will be his third start since July 1.
Essentially, Scherzer lives and dies with his fastball. He throws it nearly half the time and leans on it most in every situation against both right- and left-handed batters. The problem is that his fastball tends to lose sharpness when he hasn't pitched in a while. For example, in his last start on July 25, which was his first start in almost three weeks, the Rockies slugged .625 against Scherzer's fastball, helping him to suffer one of his worst starts on the season.
Besides the possibility of rust, history is against Scherzer. In his career, he's 0-2 with a 6.29 ERA in four starts in Pittsburgh's PNC Park, meaning that Pittsburgh's venue is his least favorite. Active Pirate batters have contributed to Scherzer's historic misery. In 63 at-bats, they hit .294 and slug .441 against him. Melky Cabrera, for example, is 7-for-21 (.333) with a double, triple, and homer.
Pittsburgh's Steven Brault (3-2, 4.06 ERA) shows strong form, having conceded two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts overall and in each of his last three home starts. While he is losing .9 units, the reason is his poor results against division rivals, who are 6-2 in his starts. Today, Brault benefits from facing a team less familiar with him.
Brault's recent success has not come against slouches, but rather against teams like the Cubs and Brewers. During his current five-start stretch, he's been great at inducing soft contact. Location is crucial. He's leaving his pitches with only 2.70 percent frequency down the middle. Instead, his five most frequent pitch locations are along a border of the zone.
National hitters have accumulated all of 13 at-bats against Brault. Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Adams, and Gerardo Parra are each 0-for-2.
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Colorado (58-69) at St. Louis (67-58)
When: 7:45 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML
While Colorado's German Marquez (12-5, 4.71 ERA) has been a profitable bet, his wins haven't been coming against winning, playoff-caliber teams, but against the likes of Miami and San Diego. Of his 12 wins, only two came against teams that currently own a winning record.
As Marquez has matured, he's been leaning on his fastball less while trying to develop other pitches. His change-up was once a project for him. But he barely throws it. Currently, he's finding success with his curveball and he's been employing it more often. The problem with him is that the curveball has been his only source of his success as opponents are hitting over .290 against each of his pitches that he throws with more than 10 percent frequency -- .291 against his slider, .365 against the sinker, and .309 against his fastball.
His fastball is still his most frequent pitch, followed by his curveball. St. Louis matches up well with him because, in the second half of the season, it ranks 10th in slugging against both pitches from righties combined. Active Cardinal batters hit .354 and slug .630 in 54 at-bats against Marquez. Look out for former division rival Paul Goldschmidt, who's 10-for-26 (.385) with two doubles and four homers. Dexter Fowler, Yadier Molina, and Marcell Ozuna are each 1-for-3 (.333).
As a team, the Cardinals are in a good spot. They're 5-0 in their last five home series openers and, since the All-Star Break, they're 5-0 against losing teams after a loss.
St. Louis' Miles Mikolas (7-13, 4.30 ERA) is coming off two tough outings against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh lineups that seem to face him every other week.
He's in a good spot today facing a lineup that's both outside of the NL Central and coming to St. Louis. In four of six home games against non-division rivals, he allowed two runs or fewer. In the two exceptions, he surrendered three runs in 13 combined innings. Hence, the main reasons why Mikolas is an unprofitable pitcher are his poor performance on the road and against NL Central teams.
Colorado itself is in a poor spot today. Winning today would require it to defeat two teams consecutively that don't have a losing record for the first time since June. Also, the Rockies are 1-5 in the second half of the season in road series openers with Cincinnati being their sole victim. In four of those losses, they mustered three runs or fewer. Expect little from Charlie Blackmon, who's 1-for-7 (.143) facing Mikolas.
Washington (69-57) at Pittsburgh (52-74)
When: 7:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Pirates First-Five RL
For all of Max Scherzer's (9-5, 2.41 ERA) success, he's easily Washington's least profitable pitcher, yielding -10.80 units. Scherzer is also in a tough spot today as he will make his first start since July 25th. Back issues had sent him on the injury list right after shoulder issues had done the same. Today will be his third start since July 1.
Essentially, Scherzer lives and dies with his fastball. He throws it nearly half the time and leans on it most in every situation against both right- and left-handed batters. The problem is that his fastball tends to lose sharpness when he hasn't pitched in a while. For example, in his last start on July 25, which was his first start in almost three weeks, the Rockies slugged .625 against Scherzer's fastball, helping him to suffer one of his worst starts on the season.
Besides the possibility of rust, history is against Scherzer. In his career, he's 0-2 with a 6.29 ERA in four starts in Pittsburgh's PNC Park, meaning that Pittsburgh's venue is his least favorite. Active Pirate batters have contributed to Scherzer's historic misery. In 63 at-bats, they hit .294 and slug .441 against him. Melky Cabrera, for example, is 7-for-21 (.333) with a double, triple, and homer.
Pittsburgh's Steven Brault (3-2, 4.06 ERA) shows strong form, having conceded two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts overall and in each of his last three home starts. While he is losing .9 units, the reason is his poor results against division rivals, who are 6-2 in his starts. Today, Brault benefits from facing a team less familiar with him.
Brault's recent success has not come against slouches, but rather against teams like the Cubs and Brewers. During his current five-start stretch, he's been great at inducing soft contact. Location is crucial. He's leaving his pitches with only 2.70 percent frequency down the middle. Instead, his five most frequent pitch locations are along a border of the zone.
National hitters have accumulated all of 13 at-bats against Brault. Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Adams, and Gerardo Parra are each 0-for-2.
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Colorado (58-69) at St. Louis (67-58)
When: 7:45 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML
While Colorado's German Marquez (12-5, 4.71 ERA) has been a profitable bet, his wins haven't been coming against winning, playoff-caliber teams, but against the likes of Miami and San Diego. Of his 12 wins, only two came against teams that currently own a winning record.
As Marquez has matured, he's been leaning on his fastball less while trying to develop other pitches. His change-up was once a project for him. But he barely throws it. Currently, he's finding success with his curveball and he's been employing it more often. The problem with him is that the curveball has been his only source of his success as opponents are hitting over .290 against each of his pitches that he throws with more than 10 percent frequency -- .291 against his slider, .365 against the sinker, and .309 against his fastball.
His fastball is still his most frequent pitch, followed by his curveball. St. Louis matches up well with him because, in the second half of the season, it ranks 10th in slugging against both pitches from righties combined. Active Cardinal batters hit .354 and slug .630 in 54 at-bats against Marquez. Look out for former division rival Paul Goldschmidt, who's 10-for-26 (.385) with two doubles and four homers. Dexter Fowler, Yadier Molina, and Marcell Ozuna are each 1-for-3 (.333).
As a team, the Cardinals are in a good spot. They're 5-0 in their last five home series openers and, since the All-Star Break, they're 5-0 against losing teams after a loss.
St. Louis' Miles Mikolas (7-13, 4.30 ERA) is coming off two tough outings against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh lineups that seem to face him every other week.
He's in a good spot today facing a lineup that's both outside of the NL Central and coming to St. Louis. In four of six home games against non-division rivals, he allowed two runs or fewer. In the two exceptions, he surrendered three runs in 13 combined innings. Hence, the main reasons why Mikolas is an unprofitable pitcher are his poor performance on the road and against NL Central teams.
Colorado itself is in a poor spot today. Winning today would require it to defeat two teams consecutively that don't have a losing record for the first time since June. Also, the Rockies are 1-5 in the second half of the season in road series openers with Cincinnati being their sole victim. In four of those losses, they mustered three runs or fewer. Expect little from Charlie Blackmon, who's 1-for-7 (.143) facing Mikolas.
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