WAS/NOR - PUZZLING Line: R. Harper OUT for NOR

[The_HAMMER]

WAS -1 ?????

Public all over NO early - which seems fully justified IMO. This is either the biggest trap play on the board or vegas is f*****.

Would love to here some thoughts/opinions on this line.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

NO has little to no running game, Colston is out and have been a poor road team..

I like the Wash side althought that offense looked brutal week 1...ten days off should help though..

What you like about NO in this spot?

 

[B.A.R.]

I lean Washington as well. They will bottle up tha average run game and be able to harass Brees without his top target.

 

[The_HAMMER]

Even though Colston is out....they still have several capable receivers. Brees in definately the X factor here IMO.

Bush & Pierre Thomas are a great one - two punch. I was never really a huge Bush fan but the guy is very versatile and can beat defensives in different ways. NO defense looked ok as well, they did enough to beat a division rival - although I guess it wanst that convincing.

I thought NO would be favoured by at least a FG. Who knows......

 

[SportsNut]

Interesting game line seems about right IMO. You cant make Was -3 cause they will get killed with NO money and you cant make NO -3 because it will leadto alot of Skins +3 ad +3.5 tickets so they had to make it a pick . Probably made it -1 so you feel like your taking a dog with NO ....

Anyway ...tough game is right ....

Wash MAIN issue and its of gigantic importance is can Jason Campbell play in a West Coast offense and to date he really has shown that he is not a quick read , quick release type of guy (does he get pulled quickly ) .....So thats the main concern with Wash there defense started terrible but I thought played well in the 2nd H . The Wash defense will be at least the same type of task TBs was . That TB game is fools gold if you look it at closely TB lost that game more then NO won it . Now a similiar type team they face and its on the road. Plus as mentioned 10 days to prepare for WASH is huge ! Can Campbell with that practice time make significant strides ? If he makes any the way TB ran on NO the SKINS should be able to do the same which also keeps the ball away from NOs offense .

Colston's loss is pretty huge but I agree there are some solid WRs still in the mix buts it a loss nonetheless even if eveyone has to slide up the chart 1 spot . I just dont think there offens eplayed that well ...

3 long TDs ...okay I am not sure aboutthe 39yder on3rd and 3 to Patten have no idea about it as I didnt see it .

The other 2 Bush had a long one when there were some missed takes early after he caught it and on Henderson's 84 YD TD Barber fell....they only scored 24 points and 14 of them probably should have been avoided . Think we may see some Deuce here as well as he did go through a full practice last I checked off surgery......

Again home field means so much in 2008 just look at baseball . How many times did people say the home field bias was gonna correct ? Did it ....nope ! Its about the leveling of the so called playing field and really more a return to medocirity as very good teams have taken a step back to good status and most of the teams who were bad or medicore took a step or two forward closer to that 500 level and above in some cases......

Campbell plays well hen I think Wash coasts here if he doesnt they still might win ....:cheers:

 

[The_HAMMER]

Well said SN....always respect your analysis my man.

I can't disagree with anything you said....my problem however is that I backed the skins last week against the G-Men and they looked absolutely putrid - paticularly on offense.....so my opinion is of course is biased.

I agree the Skin-Defense is solid and that is what will keep them in this game. Having said that...Campbell still looked atrocious and I don't beleive 10 days rest and practice will be long enough to solve all of Washington's offensive woes.

NO-TB is always a tough divison game. But again, I can't really disagree with what you said regarding NO gettin' the W last week. However, if the Skins cannot get to Brees early I think they will be in for a long afternoon.

Great discussion as always....I gotta get in on some of the other games WEEK 2.

BOL bro.

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Well said SN....always respect your analysis my man.

I can't disagree with anything you said....my problem however is that I backed the skins last week against the G-Men and they looked absolutely putrid - paticularly on offense.....so my opinion is of course is biased.

I agree the Skin-Defense is solid and that is what will keep them in this game. Having said that...Campbell still looked atrocious and I don't beleive 10 days rest and practice will be long enough to solve all of Washington's offensive woes.

NO-TB is always a tough divison game. But again, I can't really disagree with what you said regarding NO gettin' the W last week. However, if the Skins cannot get to Brees early I think they will be in for a long afternoon.

Great discussion as always....I gotta get in on some of the other games WEEK 2.

BOL bro.

:cheers:

Thanks Hammer and same here always respect your points when you post.

It's a big guessing game there is no denying that . If I had all the answers I would be able to turn a hundred bucks into a million . All we can do is theorize what will happen and hope it leads us down the right path even if we dont come close to predicting how it happens.

With that said I didnt play NYG in week 1 but had a strong lean that way . Just couldnt figure why NYG was so cheap. Apparently they highly valued the Skins which I didnt understand . Making them -4.5 and NYG had some questions to answer but I cant see we are saying these teams are basically equal . Worst case on a neutral field I make NYG -3 so -6.5 was the lowest number I expected . Would feel that -6.5 would be the correct number . Even at that level your still basically saying NYG is gonna be about a PK @ Washington next meeting.

Is NO as good as NYG ? I dont think so as that Saint's defense has some things to prove and Colston's loss now and ith Deuce uncertain role seems like NYG is cleary better. Doesnt mean I think they are significantly better but I feel if you had to the line the game for them on a neutral field however you slice it NYG would be the fav everytime even if its just -1.5 pts ...

So take it a little further is Wash not comparable to TB ? If you had to line Wash vs TB would think its about a PK on a neutral site ...meaning your gonna expect -3 to -4 when these teams meet at home which not suprisignly TB was +3/+3.5 and lost by 4 in a game it could have won including being picked on its last possession insde the NOs 20. Basically what I am saying is NO is playing a similiar type strength opponent but loses there home field edge and Wash faces a weaker oppoent then it week 1 but gains home field . Of course there is so much more to it buts that the foundation of analysis I can use....

Basically is while I agree that Wash looked terrible in week 1 they have had 10 days to prepare and same theme home field is just important . Now Was gains and NO loses it from its 1 game of the year .

So if NO is possibly undeserving of a home win IMO they way it plays out is usually if its a close game they dont get the breaks and lose one they may appear to have been in position to win .....those things to even out as so called luck just cant be a huge factor every week.....

Bottomline is I think Wash and NO are closer to equal then NO being better . Good defensive teams in all sports tend to beat good offensive teams ....good pitching always beats good hitting type deal......

BOL this week ...for now must of what I contribute is mostly a strong lean . Especially in NFL I tend to wait till gameday to finalize ...:cheers:

 

[nawlins51]

As much as I want the Saints to win I think they lose. Drew Brees was on the local news yesterday.He said the Redskins have there number the past few times they played each other. He said they will be tough and have a good defense . Nothing out the ordinary except the statement that they have there number.Which tells me that the Redskins matchup well against the Saints.You got the Redskins at home and at a pickem I saw the Redskins ML at -105 and the Saints -115. I may play the Skins as much as it hurts. I also like the under as well.

 

[The_HAMMER]

Thanks SN..
You certainly put things in perspective there and I have to say that I completely agree with the home-field edge.

I was simply trying to play devils avocate against the small-chalk. The other way I "theorized" (great word by the way - that's exactly what we do) about this game is a break-down by position:

It's early in the season, only week 2 - so several things have yet to be determined - as a result my analysis is rather brief and speculative based on last season (and recent seasons past) and not so much last weeks play.

First DEFENSIVELY:
DL - The addition of Jason Taylor for the Skins is definitely sigificant regardless on what he has done this far. He is a leader and he will definitely make plays down the stretch. However Charles Grant and Will Smith for NO are both capable of doing the same.
EDGE - Let's call it even.
LBs - Huge boost to stopping the run for NO by adding Vilma. This guy is a beast. Although the skins aren't far off with Fletcher, Washington and Co.
EDGE - Say even again.
CBs/Ss - NO definitely week in this department. Mckenzie is over-rated IMO and David is prone to being beat from line regularly. For the Skins, several big names on the field all with big play potential.
EDGE - Definitely WASHINGTON

And OFFENSIVELY:
OL - Not entirely up to date on this yet this early but each QB was sacked only once last week by the opposing team.
EDGE - Let's say even for sake of argument.
WRs - Colston out for NO; no question a big loss. However, he missed time last year and the other guys stepped up to fill the void. Between Henderson, Patten, Moore, Copper, Meachem and Shockey I still believe they will make do and get the job done. Love Moss for the Skins, great wide-out and so is Randel-El. The Skins will likely also have the services of both the highly-regarded young rookie wide-outs they drafted: Thomas and Kelly.
EDGE - I'm gonna say even; despite the fact Colston is out.
RBs - Big names on both teams. It's my understanding that Deuce has been demotted to 3rd string but that is no problem because Pierre at No. 2 is a reckoning ball. Great one-two with him and Bush IMO. Portis for the Skins looked great too and is obviously very talented.
EDGE - Will go even again.
QBs - Here is the X Factor IMO as previously mentioned. No question Brees is a stud and Campbell is still green to the whole west-coast transition.
EDGE - Easily NO in this one IMO.

I believe the winner of this game will be determined by how efficient each QB is against the respective and equally challenging secondary they both face. The team to capitalize on the others mistakes will obviously be victorious.

The extra few days off for Washington may actually prove to be advantageous. Campbell certainly can't be any worse than he was last week. Even if he is only slightly improved he has the ideal secondary to practice on. Brees will be in touch against the Skins D-Unit overall. Now I'll factor in home field........

AND.......I beleive you are right. The SKINS are the right side. My gut still likes New Orleans so I'll be just sitting back and watching to see how this one plays out.

GL brother, all the best.

 

[reNew Orleans]

jason david isnt a starter. deuces knee has some swelling but thomas was effective when he ran the ball. reggie might as well be listed as a WR and that gives us the edge in that department.

tracy porter and randall Yag started last week and both played well but porter shut down galloway who always torches us.

 

[Troutman]

Nut,

Do you think they make a QB switch soon? Or is Collins the answer or do you put your stock in Brennan, he looked great in that system during the preseaon?

 

[The_HAMMER]

reNew Orleans....my mistake on David....I know he has started in the past....Randall Yag is certainly a capable man in the back.

Keep in mind Galloway is about 170 years old....nonetheless, he's an amazing player for his age. I like the Saints myself....but won't go anywhere near this one.

Trout...I know the question wasn't directed at me but I don't think you can make a QB switch this early....they gotta give Campbell a chance...Brennan looked great in the X but that's an entirely different ball game. I know they're really high on Campbell and doing the best they can to groom him....but...i guess at some point if the results don't change maybe a switch is in the cards; but, still a little premature at this point I think.

:cheers:

 

[Blue_Chip]

NO has little to no running game, Colston is out and have been a poor road team..

NO does have little to no running game, and Colston is out. But, NO is 10-6 on the road since Payton became the HC (not incl preseason and playoff).

Colston is out (and he's on my fantasy team... bitch) but Brees spreads the ball around better than any QB in the league. The Saints will still throw 35-45 times, and the Saints will still get their points. The problem becomes then, can the Saints win if they cannot control the clock?

I think this game boils down to WSH offense vs NO defense. Can Washington hang points on the board to keep up with the Saints?

Clinton Portis will get his usual workload and should have a good game. Campbell will be the weak spot for the Saints' D to attack. Campbell is not progressing as a QB. He cannot look down the field, and consistently throws to his underneath receiver or drop off route (evidence: look at the times Randle El was targeted when Washington was trying to comeback vs NYG). If the Saints DL can get after Campbell like they got after Garcia last week, then NO will have success.

Look at the first half and expect that tempo and style to continue throughout the game. If NO cannot move the ball AND score, then Washington can rely on Portis. And if this is the case, then expect a close game throughout with Washington likely winning the game. If NO can score early and often, then Washington is in trouble. The game will then rely on Campbell, who I believe does not have the ability to carry his team to victory. The Saints will get after Campbell, force mistakes and punts, and the Washington defense could look anemic like they did against NYG.

I'm not betting it, but there's my analysis. GL gents

 

[The_HAMMER]

Like the analysis BlueChip.....not too far off from my take. BOL.

 

[SportsNut]

Nut,

Do you think they make a QB switch soon? Or is Collins the answer or do you put your stock in Brennan, he looked great in that system during the preseaon?

Trout :

Always so hard to tell . For alot of reasons IMO. A QB switch especially to a guy like Brennan who is a rookie on a veteran team could look to some like they are giving up . I dont buy that but it could be "sold" as that . Do you lose your team or defense by doing that ? You have a new HC and OC who would have to be willingly to admit they made mistakes 2 games deep into there tenure . Most people are stubborn especially coaches , I think we agree on that . So admitting fault is not an easy step. Brennan is definetly fit for the WC offense.

I really have no idea . I just go by the concerns I see raised and this has been talked about since early in preseason and make my opinion to if the concerns are relevant . To me here they are . The last 2 or 3 preseason games and the opener the offense was terrible . I know people say oh the preseason doesnt matter but its hard for me to believe that someone who hasnt proven they can do something cant do it in exhibition games and then go do it in real games . Thats what I uses preseason analysis for. Not so much stats but execution that comes out through stats . Like when I said Rodgers was 16-19 vs the 1st team defense in preseason game 3 . Its not the stats that get me excited but its what 16-19 indicates to me. As in okay he was in control of the game , he had to be making good reads to have just 3 INCs and his accuracy had to me there as well to go 16-19 , then you look at YPA to make sure he wasnt just throwing 6 YD routes either ....

I think in this era we see more rookies who can step in play quicker due to whats available in resources for players today. There is no resume filler though for experience and thats the biggest issue with rookies and young players . Comfort level and understanding the game and game situations . Lots of little things. Which isnt exactly me discovering life on Mars its pretty common train of thought but I think we see an age of players needing less seasoning some cases . Still there will be guys like Aaron Rodgers who need time to get accustomed . The only way to know about Brennan is see what he can do in a real game .

It has to be nearing that point not because of week 1 so much but how the preseason ended . Frankyly Wash seems to be a franchise like my Yanks with the win now mentality so how long will they accept that type of offensive execution ???

Now as for Todd Collins I guess that would make more sense because of 2007 and such but its new for him as well . Maybe not the WC but the offense . His upside is clearlt limited at this point but again win now teams usually lack patience . If they lay a bomb in the home opener I would think something has to be done . That 0-2 start and the stat for making the playoffs is well known althoug I cant think of at the moment ...

I dont recall much improvement as the game wore on vs NYG but would hope the time in bewteen has shown progress . Gonna try and dig into the local papers to see what they are saying...:shake:

I would rather see how the team reacts to Colt Brennan possibly be given an chance in the near future( as in feel them out about it before making a move) and if they rally around him see him get the gig over Todd Collins.

 

[SportsNut]

reNew Orleans....my mistake on David....I know he has started in the past....Randall Yag is certainly a capable man in the back.

Keep in mind Galloway is about 170 years old....nonetheless, he's an amazing player for his age. I like the Saints myself....but won't go anywhere near this one.

Trout...I know the question wasn't directed at me but I don't think you can make a QB switch this early....they gotta give Campbell a chance...Brennan looked great in the X but that's an entirely different ball game. I know they're really high on Campbell and doing the best they can to groom him....but...i guess at some point if the results don't change maybe a switch is in the cards; but, still a little premature at this point I think.

:cheers:

Yag's questionable know I think with Aaron Glenn ashis replacement . Tons and I mine tons of injuries pooping up this week...

Saints CB Randall Yag is questionable for Sunday with a tight hamstring and a case of the flu.

Yag left last Sunday's game with the hamstring injury and was treated for dehydration Thursday after coming down with the flu. Veteran Aaron Glenn would start if Yag does not play against the Redskins.
Source: New Orleans Times-Picayune
Related: Aaron Glenn


The 1st step in evalutaing how Brennan played inthe preseason would be to research when he played , vs what tye of defenses and what type of depth chart players (as in 1st string ,2nd string , 3rd string) and see what type of game situations (blowouts either way are useless IMO to look at , you want to see competitive games where some relevant production was produced). I am not making a judgement or critique just saying that is how i would approach to really grade anything he did in preseason . Its almost like wresting because its fake and scripted yet it in alot of ways its real . :shake:

Great post above and I dont disagree with much.

Basically I think everyone knows my viewpoint on sports gambling is identifying situations rather then comparing talent vs talent . So my belief in Wash is based more on the situation and perception of them then any on field evaluations or minor ones . Like good running team vs weak run defense ...very basic stuff...:cheers:Be aware of the weakness and cons of the situation I prefer and live with my decisions . The decision aspect is the toughest for me due to the mental issues I deal with and I guess even soem learning disorders that people wouldnt associate with someone who isnt mentally challeneged in the way most are accustomed.....

 

[SportsNut]

NO does have little to no running game, and Colston is out. But, NO is 10-6 on the road since Payton became the HC (not incl preseason and playoff).

Colston is out (and he's on my fantasy team... bitch) but Brees spreads the ball around better than any QB in the league. The Saints will still throw 35-45 times, and the Saints will still get their points. The problem becomes then, can the Saints win if they cannot control the clock?

I think this game boils down to WSH offense vs NO defense. Can Washington hang points on the board to keep up with the Saints?

Clinton Portis will get his usual workload and should have a good game. Campbell will be the weak spot for the Saints' D to attack. Campbell is not progressing as a QB. He cannot look down the field, and consistently throws to his underneath receiver or drop off route (evidence: look at the times Randle El was targeted when Washington was trying to comeback vs NYG). If the Saints DL can get after Campbell like they got after Garcia last week, then NO will have success.

Look at the first half and expect that tempo and style to continue throughout the game. If NO cannot move the ball AND score, then Washington can rely on Portis. And if this is the case, then expect a close game throughout with Washington likely winning the game. If NO can score early and often, then Washington is in trouble. The game will then rely on Campbell, who I believe does not have the ability to carry his team to victory. The Saints will get after Campbell, force mistakes and punts, and the Washington defense could look anemic like they did against NYG.

I'm not betting it, but there's my analysis. GL gents

I am not sure I agree with the running game aspect . Bush is not a big back and so I agree in taht sense he is not gonna be pounding at the line of scrimmage but rather use his speed and agility to get yards .Plus they probably dont want him pounded on. I do think the use of him in the short passing game serves and a type or part of the running game . I also think with Deuce working his way to health and Thomas they are capable just maybe not versus solid defenses such as TB or even a Wash but every team has to adapt in some ways to there opponent . There are some teams who can just run at any opponent but those are becoming few and fewer these days .....

I agree though BC Brees does spread the ball around and they have many capable players of making timely plays . Including ex-Skin David Patten . I know Devery Henderson is a bust but this is also a key opp for him sort of his last chance . He was targeted twice only last week and while I see the long TD as flukish it still says 84YD TD in the stat column so that has to be a plus.

I am not sure though the Sainst will get there points . To me that means Saints score 24+ and not sure they do as 17-20 would not suprise me . Saints will be able to move the ball yes but intersting to see if they can grind the ball down field in lieu of big plays that cant be expected vs good defenses week in week out ...two nice weapons in the red one with Bush and Shockey but can Skins blanket them knowing Brees is more likely to drop back and pass ?

I think though naturally Wash is going to probably have to score 21+ maybe they could get away with 19 (TD -4 FGs ) or 20 pts . Good point about the DL but better OL then TB as well . Alot of moaning about that TB OL and Skins have a better group and home again . Garcia was not 100% so mobility could be comprised were as Campbell though not a runner is somewhat mobile as far as getting out of traffic. Remember NYG had just 1 sack on there home field vs them so dont expect NO to get more pressure . They may but NYG pass rush is highly rated as we know.

I think its more about dictating tempo ( as u said already) . Wash needs to start quick and let NO play catch up rather then have Wash play for behind for obvious reasons . Mostly because they can run the ball and play off that rather then as u said rely on Campbell . I am down on Campbell but its not like he never won a NFL game either ...

I think NO defense is gonna be the issue here . They played well for a half but Garcia was banged up in the preseason and I dont think Galloway played at all . So I am sure there was alot of rust to work through plus they had added Dunn to the offense . So its hard to grade NO defense but defending the run isnt a new problem and Graham and Dunn did well on the surface. Now put that NO defense on the road vs higher quality backs and a tougher OL . Seems to me that they should have problems keeping the Wash offense off the field and theres on it . If I am Wash they should hopefully be acknowledging there QB issues and forget about Campbell's improvement for a sec and focus on doing the easiest thing they can . Run the ball , chew clock to shorten the game and avoid NO offense, keep there defense fresh to play against NO offense. Which is all a product of successfully running the ball. Now of course NO has to know priority # 1 is stop Wash ground game but its a weakness for them and tough to make your weakness your strength ....

For me there are no strong plays until Sunday but as of now I think the Skins have alot of value. For the simple fact I think they are in a great spot to win this game and for gambling purposes thats all you have to do is figure out who you expect to win . To me its more likely Wash win then NO does but either outcome would not suprise me just about what I expect .

Keys -
Wash ground game
NO run defense
Wash defense

To me thats the basics of how this game plays out . Can Wash run the ball all day , how NO run defense fare vs the Skins run and how Wash does vs the Saints offense ....as much as Campbell is an important aspect . The truth is this game can be won with very minimal contribution from him IMO.....:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

The Saints have ruled out SS Roman Harper (hamstring), SLB Scott Fujita (knee), and CB Randall Yag (hamstring/illness) for Week 2.

The strong side of New Orleans' defense will be quite weak, which is good news for Clinton Portis and the Redskins' run game. Kevin Kaesvharn and Josh Bullocks will start at safety. Special teamer Troy Evans will take Fujita's place, and aging Aaron Glenn will start at corner. These are big downgrades. Sep. 12 - 2:45 pm et

Pretty huge news which puts me on WASH ML for sure . Nothing like losing a starting LB and having special teams players start . Just feel like they arent good enough backups alone to make the cut so they need to play special teams( and well) as a bonus . Although to be honest I am not that well versed on the makeup of NFL special teams "rosters".....

:shake:

 

[reNew Orleans]

Attention - Was/NO Bettors

Roman Harper will be OUT for the game, pulled his hammy Week 1. Big loss for the Saints

 

[Aztec4Life]

Thanks for the heads up reNew!

:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

It's in Hammer's thread . Put NO injuries there 2 hours ago . Lets merge this thread to that one to keep out the clutter . Sort of keep that the Wash @ NO discussion thread...

good heads up but just so we keep from making multiple threads on the same subject(s). Pain in the ass searching for shit ...

 

[SportsNut]

Yag and Fujita OUT as well ..(see Hammer's thread )

 

[footballjunkie]

good info guys

 

[CapTwo]

Obviously hollis thomas too.... (for the season though)

DL takes a big hit there.

 

[Troutman]

The Saints have ruled out SS Roman Harper (hamstring), SLB Scott Fujita (knee), and CB Randall Yag (hamstring/illness) for Week 2.

The strong side of New Orleans' defense will be quite weak, which is good news for Clinton Portis and the Redskins' run game. Kevin Kaesvharn and Josh Bullocks will start at safety. Special teamer Troy Evans will take Fujita's place, and aging Aaron Glenn will start at corner. These are big downgrades. Sep. 12 - 2:45 pm et

Pretty huge news which puts me on WASH ML for sure . Nothing like losing a starting LB and having special teams players start . Just feel like they arent good enough backups alone to make the cut so they need to play special teams( and well) as a bonus . Although to be honest I am not that well versed on the makeup of NFL special teams "rosters".....

:shake:

With you on this one as well.:cheers:

 

[The_HAMMER]

Great info on injuries......thanks guys. :cheers: